11–20 of 62 posts
What kind of retarded reporting is this? The godfather of Ethereum? What does that even mean?! Why not just say, the founder/creator of Ethereum (skipping "most people consider").
Sure in some cases it's black and white, but like most things in life there is a lot of weight in the interpretation.
So it's back to the original problem with smart contracts - you still have to trust an oracle, and I would bet ;) that if the stakes are high enough, an oracle will be manipulated in some way.
Let's take an election for example. We've had enough madness just in the US in the last 20 years to be skeptical of initially reported outcomes. In fact, some elections get reversed after study and investigation. Augur isn't going to reverse a funds exchange. And if someone has enough riding on an outcome, they may find it worth spending extra money to at least temporarily cause the outcome to match their bet. They just need to win briefly, even if the results get overturned later.
> Vitalik Buterin–the person most people consider the godfather of Ethereum What kind of retarded reporting is this? The godfather of Ethereum? What does that even mean ?! Why not just say, the founder/creator of Ethereum (skipping "most people consider").
As far as I can tell, this is no different from BetFair et al who let punters bet against each other on the outcome of the next football match? (apart from "oooh! blockchain!" and "oooh! decentralised!")
I've read a lot of articles about this over the years and seen lots of lofty words about how this will change X/the world forever, or enable some new economic model Y or whatever, but as far as I can tell its just the same old grotty gambling we've had for thousands of years already except its better because blockchain?
What have I missed?
Genuine question, why is this called a "prediction market" and not just a gambling exchange? As far as I can tell, this is no different from BetFair et al who let punters bet against each other on the outcome of the next football match? (apart from "oooh! blockchain!" and "oooh! decentralised!") I've read a lot of articles about this over the years and seen lots of lofty words about how this will change X/the world f…
I would say a prediction market and a gambling exchange are both built on gambling, but a prediction market has a purpose beyond money changing hands.
I sat through some early presentations of Augur at the big monthly Bitcoin meeting that's been running for years in Amsterdam, and my first thought upon seeing it was, "who says what the factual outcome is?". Sure in some cases it's black and white, but like most things in life there is a lot of weight in the interpretation. So it's back to the original problem with smart contracts - you still have to trust an oracle…
Maybe I'll even get to see it in real life. What a time to be alive.
Genuine question, why is this called a "prediction market" and not just a gambling exchange? As far as I can tell, this is no different from BetFair et al who let punters bet against each other on the outcome of the next football match? (apart from "oooh! blockchain!" and "oooh! decentralised!") I've read a lot of articles about this over the years and seen lots of lofty words about how this will change X/the world f…
"The outcome becomes more predictable over time.
This is because the payoff depends on the accurate prediction of an outcome of an event. Therefore, people will put in more effort to come to the most accurate conclusion.
As a larger number of people do more market research to come to the most likely conclusion, the predicted outcome will lean more favorable to one side.
If you place a bet on a coin flip, the outcome will always be 50% heads, 50% tails. There are no external market conditions that will influence the outcome. Luck plays a major role, and this is called gambling.
But prediction markets rely on the collective wisdom held by a group of people on the probability of a future event materializing."
[1] https://cointelegraph.com/explained/prediction-markets-expla...
> Vitalik Buterin–the person most people consider the godfather of Ethereum What kind of retarded reporting is this? The godfather of Ethereum? What does that even mean ?! Why not just say, the founder/creator of Ethereum (skipping "most people consider").
This article, like most other crypto related posts is a thinly veiled ad. Anyone who just focuses on how the price graph for something moves isn't worth listening to.
I sat through some early presentations of Augur at the big monthly Bitcoin meeting that's been running for years in Amsterdam, and my first thought upon seeing it was, "who says what the factual outcome is?". Sure in some cases it's black and white, but like most things in life there is a lot of weight in the interpretation. So it's back to the original problem with smart contracts - you still have to trust an oracle…
Now I want to read a cyberpunk novel about a team who rigs an election just to steal a bunch of gas from a predictions market. Maybe I'll even get to see it in real life. What a time to be alive.
Genuine question, why is this called a "prediction market" and not just a gambling exchange? As far as I can tell, this is no different from BetFair et al who let punters bet against each other on the outcome of the next football match? (apart from "oooh! blockchain!" and "oooh! decentralised!") I've read a lot of articles about this over the years and seen lots of lofty words about how this will change X/the world f…