The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
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The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
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Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#2Nice— Vitalik Buterin comments. I had no idea he was an early investor in Augur.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#3[deleted]
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#4Love how Vitalik basically says, even if it's a flop it's a success. $5 million for 40 users? If I was an investor I'd want my money back.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#5Related post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17799346
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#6Last I read, REP gave up on plans for a decentralised Oracle. That’s the hardest part of this whole deal,unfortunately
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#7Last I read, REP gave up on plans for a decentralised Oracle. That’s the hardest part of this whole deal,unfortunately
It would be useful to hear about the challenges in detail.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#8Last I read, REP gave up on plans for a decentralised Oracle. That’s the hardest part of this whole deal,unfortunately
That's mostly true, with a caveat. By default the oracle is not decentralized, but what is decentralized is the "backstop". If I create a market, I can also be the one to report on the outcome of the market (versus it being decentralized in the original plan). What they introduced is the concept of a "dispute". So if I report on a market you can dispute it and say "Hey you are lying" and if enough people agree that I lied, you get a portion of the market fees. So you are correct, it's no longer decentralized, but it's also not centralized. Not perfect, but still pretty good.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#9Last I read, REP gave up on plans for a decentralised Oracle. That’s the hardest part of this whole deal,unfortunately
That's mostly true, with a caveat. By default the oracle is not decentralized, but what is decentralized is the "backstop". If I create a market, I can also be the one to report on the outcome of the market (versus it being decentralized in the original plan). What they introduced is the concept of a "dispute". So if I report on a market you can dispute it and say "Hey you are lying" and if enough people agree that I…
> if enough people agree that I lied, you get a portion of the market fees
This creates a host of post-closing political incentives. You are no longer betting on an event outcome, but on a consensus process.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's mostly true, with a caveat. By default the oracle is not decentralized, but what is decentralized is the "backstop". If I create a market, I can also be the one to report on the outcome of the market (versus it being decentralized in the original plan). What they introduced is the concept of a "dispute". So if I report on a market you can dispute it and say "Hey you are lying" and if enough people agree that I…
> if enough people agree that I lied, you get a portion of the market fees This creates a host of post-closing political incentives. You are no longer betting on an event outcome, but on a consensus process.
It's consensus all the way down: ultimately a cryptosystem is what the majority of the voting/staking/hashing nodes say it is. Remember the DAO reversal?