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Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

electrek.co

41–50 of 84 posts

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#41
post #37

Still completely reckless in my opinion to deploy any autonomous system without LIDAR or some other long range, night time capable sensor. Even if it's not reckless their competitors will offer low light and night time autonomous driving which will be a major advantage.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

I think it's important to recognize that Tesla is (partially) a technology deflation play (its also a financial engineering play, but that is out of scope for this thread).

Their ability to deliver is a function of the costs of their basic technology supplies (batteries for the Roadster were expensive, less so for the S, X, and energy storage, and now even less so for the 3). This is very similar to the cost decline curve of solar, wind, and storage in the utility energy space (project developers provide bids based on where prices will be in 3-5 years).

Tesla can do this because technology and batteries rapidly decreases in cost every year. Need new autopilot compute hardware? It should be cheaper by the time they need to perform the swap to realize the capability. Need LIDAR? They'll find a way to install it, and the costs should be fairly reasonable per vehicle instead of thousands, or tens of thousands, if they went all in when it was expensive.

This is not unlike a technology startup, where technical debt you're going to pay off in the future is an acceptable tradeoff, so you push off the decision and/or work until the last possible moment (but no further).

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#42
post #37

Still completely reckless in my opinion to deploy any autonomous system without LIDAR or some other long range, night time capable sensor. Even if it's not reckless their competitors will offer low light and night time autonomous driving which will be a major advantage.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

Ever wondered why in millions of years nature didnt evolve a LIDAR equivalent and most species use passive vision?

I think Tesla is bang on the money going only with cameras. They are already better than the human eye.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#43
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

I think it's important to recognize that Tesla is (partially) a technology deflation play (its also a financial engineering play, but that is out of scope for this thread). Their ability to deliver is a function of the costs of their basic technology supplies (batteries for the Roadster were expensive, less so for the S, X, and energy storage, and now even less so for the 3). This is very similar to the cost decline…

ALL of the other OEMs are building autonomous cars using LIDAR so cost isn't a factor.

And relating it to technical debt makes no sense as you have to design with LIDAR in the beginning.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's important to recognize that Tesla is (partially) a technology deflation play (its also a financial engineering play, but that is out of scope for this thread). Their ability to deliver is a function of the costs of their basic technology supplies (batteries for the Roadster were expensive, less so for the S, X, and energy storage, and now even less so for the 3). This is very similar to the cost decline…

ALL of the other OEMs are building autonomous cars using LIDAR so cost isn't a factor. And relating it to technical debt makes no sense as you have to design with LIDAR in the beginning.

Can you provide a citation to an OEM that is putting LIDAR in vehicles being sold to customers today?

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#45
post #42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

Ever wondered why in millions of years nature didnt evolve a LIDAR equivalent and most species use passive vision? I think Tesla is bang on the money going only with cameras. They are already better than the human eye.

Eagles can see 4-8x further than humans can and many varieties of birds can see in additional spectrums to ours. And of course SONAR exists in whales, dolphins etc which is a corollary.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#46
post #42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

Ever wondered why in millions of years nature didnt evolve a LIDAR equivalent and most species use passive vision? I think Tesla is bang on the money going only with cameras. They are already better than the human eye.

Ever wondered why with millions of years of evolution, human drivers with depth perception-enabled HDR cameras in their heads still get into accidents all the time? If that's your bar for "good enough" then we're in big trouble with autonomous vehicles.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ALL of the other OEMs are building autonomous cars using LIDAR so cost isn't a factor. And relating it to technical debt makes no sense as you have to design with LIDAR in the beginning.

Can you provide a citation to an OEM that is putting LIDAR in vehicles being sold to customers today?

GM/Honda are partnering with Cruise. Fiat are partnering with Waymo.

Everyone is partnering with someone or organising supply deals. And everyone other than Tesla uses LIDAR.

Also I never said these cars were being sold today.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide a citation to an OEM that is putting LIDAR in vehicles being sold to customers today?

GM/Honda are partnering with Cruise. Fiat are partnering with Waymo. Everyone is partnering with someone or organising supply deals. And everyone other than Tesla uses LIDAR. Also I never said these cars were being sold today.

> Also I never said these cars were being sold today.

Then you're moving the goal posts. Tesla is selling cars today to people that they are (EDIT) targeting support of full autonomy, or have their hardware swapped to do so. Everything else is an experiment in a lab or on a track.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#49
post #42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not get why your comment is so controversial - you are absolutely right. Conventional cameras alone are not trustworthy for self-driving, and this is part of the reason every respectable company venturing into self-driving is incorporation technologies like LIDAR. I find it sketchy that Tesla markets "future full-self-driving" when they are unlikely to have the hardware to make that a safe experience.

Ever wondered why in millions of years nature didnt evolve a LIDAR equivalent and most species use passive vision? I think Tesla is bang on the money going only with cameras. They are already better than the human eye.

humans also didn't evolve wheels and the ability to run at 200 km / h.

Re: Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9

#50
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re clearly not in isolation. We’re not talking about storing data, but sending it and receiving it, so if the messages are encrypted, you just need to feed the code that is doing the encrypting and voila. Disabling wipers and all lights while driving at high speed with the wipers running full blast can be quickly fatal.

If they were we wouldn't be debating this. Sorry you are wrong.

Not sure which point you were referring to by "they", but we must have different definitions of "isolation".

If one system absolutely requires communication with the other to function, I would never call them isolated.

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