Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#71

Post by csours » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:41 PM UTC

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor, any opinions are solely my own.

From the linked article:

> "And now NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safet...

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/national-highway-traffi...

> "NHTSA does not distinguish safety performance beyond that rating, thus there is no "safest" vehicle among those vehicles achieving 5-star ratings."

Perhaps stop making claims that are not backed by the source you claim to use.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#72

Post by mapgrep » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:42 PM UTC

I decided to just look into an assertion from the first paragraph of this post: "NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order."

This is linked to a news article on "CleanTechnica," sourced to the Tesla corporate blog. Notably, the blog does not claim that these vehicles are #1,2,3 in the rankings, but rather that in prior tests the X and S models were found to have "the lowest and second lowest probabilities of injury of all cars ever tested."

But it turns out NHTSA disputes even Tesla's more mild assertions:

"A five-star rating is the highest safety rating a vehicle can achieve," the agency said in the statement, which did not name Tesla. "NHTSA does not distinguish safety performance beyond that rating, thus there is no 'safest' vehicle among those vehicles achieving five-star ratings." https://autoweek.com/article/car-news/nhtsa-downplays-teslas...

In 2017, just over 30 cars attained 5-star ratings: https://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle-Shoppers/my2017_5_star_test...

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#73

Post by kbenson » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

mapgrep wrote: post #72

I decided to just look into an assertion from the first paragraph of this post: "NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." This is linked to a news article on "CleanTechnica," sourced to the Tesla corporate blog. Notably, the blog does not claim that these vehicles are #1,2,3 in the rankings, but rather that in p…

> But it turns out NHTSA disputes even Tesla's more mild assertions:

I think it's worth noting that neither are contradicting each other, as they are saying different things. Tesla says NHTSA testing shows something, which may have nothing to do with specifically what the NHTSA says or how it rates. If they have access to the actual test data (or the tests are publicly available), they can make assertions off that data.

If that was the case, the NHTSA is clarifying its position, in that it is not making those claims so them saying "NHTSA does not distinguish safety performance beyond that rating, thus there is no 'safest' vehicle among those vehicles achieving five-star ratings." is a way of clarifying their position and staying neutral, since they haven't made that assertion for any other vehicles in the past.

In other words, it's possible for them both to be be correct and accurate, but talking about slightly different things. This doesn't even require intent to deceive from either party.

I, of course, have no idea if that's true and this is the case. It is one possible way to interpret the statements though, so a little additional investigation might be warranted before we determine that either statement is false or intentionally misleading.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#74

Post by _ph_ » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

throwaway2016a wrote: post #3

I actually really want to buy a Model 3 but these stories that Tesla has a bridge note due in March that they may not be able to cover have me concerned. If I buy a car I want to make sure the company is around to service it. I don't see this article covering that particular article. In fact the word "debt" appears nowhere in it. Edit: I'm actually asking someone to prove the debt issue wrong if they can. It is liter…

A very important milestone will be the numbers for Q3, which will be announced early November. If Tesla is, as expected, no longer loses significant amounts money or even is slightly profitable, the outlook should be very good. The Model 3 production volume is up, there should be some volume increase in Q4 and that means a lot of revenue. Based on that, renewing the credit shouldn't be too difficult in March. The credit due is about 900 million, while Tesla has a quarterly revenue of more than 5 billion.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#75

Post by crunchyfrog » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

superfrank wrote: post #41

This article seems to be saying that Tesla is in a good place because they build good, popular cars and electric vehicles are the future. Maybe, I'm reading different news stories than the author, but I don't feel like those are criticisms of Tesla that I'm seeing anymore. Pretty much every current news story I'm seeing is either focusing on Tesla running out of money because their cars aren't profitable enough, or t…

Of course the narrative has changed because Tesla's success has forced it to change but the underlying conclusion (i.e. "Tesla is doomed") has remained the same through out.

It would be ridiculous if they were still running articles about how Tesla will never build the Model S or the Model 3 or reach 5,000 cars a week or are always bursting into flames or whatever because reality has proved them wrong time and again.

Saying this new narrative is plausible unlike all those previous narratives ignores that all those previous narratives where plausible and wrong when they were pushed.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#76

Post by 1123581321 » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:50 PM UTC

csours wrote: post #71

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor, any opinions are solely my own. From the linked article: > "And now NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safet... https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/national-highway-traffi... > "NHTSA does not distin…

The CNET article you linked says:

“Over email, a Tesla spokeswoman did offer more explanation on the probability-of-injury statistic. NHTSA compiles raw injury data in a load of spreadsheets every year, and it computes the overall probability of injury, listing it as a Vehicle Safety Score in its published results. That's where Tesla pulled the data from, and you can check this year's results for yourself on regulations.gov.”

It seems that NHTSA is only disputing that they hand out an official “safest vehicle” rating, not that Tesla did that well in their data. I would say that the claim is backed up if going by the actual results and not the capped, publicized rating. I’m curious what you thought when you came across that part of the article.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#77

Post by kbenson » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:52 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #18

sokoloff wrote: post #13

> Tesla has achieved enormous results in ramping up its Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history. That defies my gut feel, so I checked on carsalesbase to confirm/refute. Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up... http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

The author describes himself as a cleantech and blockchain reporter [1]. [1] https://medium.com/@michaelbarnard_46445

> blockchain reporter

I wonder if the general public has as negative a connotation of blockchain reporter as I assume most HN readers do.[1]

1: Even if you're bullish on blockchains, I don't think it's a stretch to say that blockchains reporters are not unfamiliar with overhyping news.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#78

Post by paulornothing » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:53 PM UTC

adamkittelson wrote: post #49

They're really struggling with delivery logistics though. I was scheduled to pick up my Model 3, which will be my 3rd Tesla, this Wednesday. I've been hounding them for my bill of sale because the bank needs it before they'll send a check. I called the local delivery center again this morning and they informed me they gave my car to another customer. They didn't bother to let me know about this or the home office so…

Well hopefully that's the exception and not the rule. I mean you end up needing the VIN for everything (which was news to me but mine didn't change). My delivery pickup was great with the exception of sitting in the waiting room for a half hour to get my car. During my delivery date they had 100 deliveries scheduled.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#79

Post by threeseed » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:56 PM UTC

ryanhuff wrote: post #63

adamkittelson wrote: post #49

They're really struggling with delivery logistics though. I was scheduled to pick up my Model 3, which will be my 3rd Tesla, this Wednesday. I've been hounding them for my bill of sale because the bank needs it before they'll send a check. I called the local delivery center again this morning and they informed me they gave my car to another customer. They didn't bother to let me know about this or the home office so…

I suspect as they fix one issue (production, etc), the next in line becomes the bottleneck. Now it’s delivery logistics, but once that’s fixed, it will become service, which already seems to be straining.

Companies around the world are building, shipping and supporting products simultaneously.

Really confused why Tesla can't do the same.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#80

Post by 0x54D5 » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 7:59 PM UTC

superfrank wrote: post #41

This article seems to be saying that Tesla is in a good place because they build good, popular cars and electric vehicles are the future. Maybe, I'm reading different news stories than the author, but I don't feel like those are criticisms of Tesla that I'm seeing anymore. Pretty much every current news story I'm seeing is either focusing on Tesla running out of money because their cars aren't profitable enough, or t…

Everyone focuses on car production volume while completely ignoring the battery production & solar panel production volumes. Tesla is more of a battery company than a car company. In that regard their products always have waiting lists and are certainly very profitable. Their car business is simply a way to increase demand for their batteries.