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Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

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Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#141

Post by NeedMoreTea »

domlebo70 wrote: post #102
raquo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that relevant? Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up by 14 degrees. Actually, much sooner than that.

But why? Why can't we adapt to those environments using technology? This is what the OP comment is saying.

Are we going to adapt all the world's flora and fauna to the changed conditions too?

If so it's simply cheaper to entirely fix global warming. If not, what are we planning on eating?

We're already seeing species can't react quickly enough to changing conditions. Flora especially takes time to move. If it's only humanity that is adapting, isn't the point rather moot?

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#142

Post by ben_w »

lozenge wrote: post #133
cletus wrote: post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

Ah, techno utopianism. It ignores reality in many ways, here are two. First, if we have clean energy, are we going to shut down fossil fuel plants that have already been built? If not, then fossil fuel will just become cheaper as demand drops, making burning fossil fuels attractive again. Countries currently plan to reduce their emissions, but none are planning to reduce their fossil fuel exports. They just hope it w…

> First, if we have clean energy, are we going to shut down fossil fuel plants that have already been built?

That depends entirely on how cheap the alternatives are. Fossil fuel mining is not zero cost in itself, so there is a minimum price it can’t go below.

Indeed, quite a lot of coal plants are being shut down — they can’t compete as the fuel itself is too expensive. This is not universal as not all coal is the same price and transport costs are also relevant, but it is happening.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#143

Post by growlist »

vjsc wrote: post #78

In my opinion, the large corporations behind fossil fuels have too much of an economic clout. The governments around the world are dependent on them for a considerable amount of their respective national economy. So yes you are right about government not doing much about this. Ultimately, unless there is a relatively quick mass extinction event, no government is going to be bothered into action. Climate change and th…

Or migrate northwards, or upwards in elevation (latter might not work as well due to decreased precipitation). UK's latitude and natural moat are looking like pretty useful attributes, at the expense of losing considerable amounts of low lying coastline.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#144

Post by raquo »

doon123 wrote: post #127
raquo wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, as comfortable as you will be able get with global wars, refugees, food shortages, etc. going on. Governments and countries are not very stable under these conditions. Probably shouldn't expect your wealth to crisis proof your life in this scenario. Won't hurt but we'll all be much better off organizing to avoid this future.

>> Well, as comfortable as you will be able get with global wars, refugees, food shortages, etc. going on. I think the crisis will be contained to the poorest parts of the world. Especially the tropics. This area is going to be the first to bear the brunt of climate change related problems. I dont foresee Global wars happening. The politicians are too smart for that. They will try to contain the damage to the extant…

Somehow I doubt that people in these countries will sit on their hands while dying off.

Mass migration will definitely happen, and might even be supported by their governments and armies. India, Pakistan and China have nuclear weapons to wave around.

US will likely be better off than Europe thanks to the oceans and a big army / navy. But it will not be a good time for anyone if it comes to this.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#145

Post by candiodari »

trymas wrote: post #27

EDIT: downvoters, feel free to add your opinion, what seps we can take in 12 years to prevent climate change. I will gladly hear any opinion, especially if it is not as drastic as mine. 1. Drop coal and gas as energy sources immediately. Use renewable and nuclear energy as main power sources. Phase out nuclear after couple decades, when we hopefully can get all our energy needs from renewables. EDIT: forgot to add in…

The only ways that can be effective in 12 years are geoengineering solutions.

The problem with geoengineering is that they make someone clearly responsible for climate change in the good direction. So geoengineering is going to cause trillions in damage, on purpose. So it'll never be done.

These solutions:

1) takes 10 years (minimum) to happen, and ignores that the environmental groups are much more against nuclear than against fossil fuels. So probably never going to happen.

Furthermore, requires rebuilding the electricity grid and changing, I don't know, 100 million households to electrical heating. That too will take time and can't happen before the first part is complete.

So in 12 years ? No appreciable effect

2) won't work at all. That land won't be replaced with co2 sinks. Even if we do put forests, they take half a century before becoming sinks.

Won't work in 12 years. Hell, won't work before we run out of oil. We might as well do nothing.

3) won't take effect until those kids start using significant resources, say 20 years. Won't cause decrease until the current generation starts dying off (worldwide average age is still low 20s, so let's generously say in 50 years). Also: who will take care of those people before they die ?

Won't work in 12 years

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#146

Post by growlist »

jsingleton wrote: post #104
tobr wrote: post #19

Fundamentally it is a political problem, not a technological problem. We need high carbon taxes, we need to end fossil fuel subsidies, and we probably need to change our economic system to something that addresses the tragedy of the commons. But we’ve seen in recent years how technology can influence politics. I’d quote a tweet from Tristan Harris from the other day [1]: > In an hypothetical world, if Facebook were r…

Very well put. We have the tools to fix this problem, we just need the will. I wrote a lot more on this recently, with ideas that people on here can use to help influence better outcomes: https://unop.uk/how-to-help-with-a-big-global-problem-as-a-t... It's a shame that the big technology companies aren't using their influence and reach to help.

I don't think it's the big technology companies - I doubt there's any large corporation the shuttering of which would not benefit the environment. I'd like to see more measures such as making a factory take its intake water downstream of where it discharges its waste water - you can bet that waste water will be clean. Otherwise we are reliant on the supposed goodwill of CEOs, which has manifestly failed to deliver thus far.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#147

Post by ben_w »

akvadrako wrote: post #80
netjiro wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Earth has also been a lot warmer than it is now Key here is rate of change, and what humans can survive. We are changing the climate many many times faster than ever before. Nature does not have the time to adapt. And the wars, famines and mass displacements coming from ecosystem collapse is like nothing we've seen in human history. Think we have a problem with a few million migrants? Try a billion or two! P-T…

The temp has definitely changed faster than this before and the hundred years people are worried about wouldn’t even show up in geological historic records. For a recent example look up the younger dryas on Wikipedia. It seems like the average global temp moved about 5 degrees over a few decades.

“””The Younger Dryas … was a return to glacial conditions which temporarily reversed the gradual climatic warming after the Last Glacial Maximum started receding”””

Closest I can get to supporting your client is that the local temperature of Greenland went up a lot at the end of that period. Not global. And given the article talks a lot about global thermohaline circulation, extreme local variation is not surprising.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#148

Post by lozenge »

aoner wrote: post #116

If you look at the recent IPCC reports, people are heavily betting on putting carbon back into the stable form. That can be in the form of carbon capture storage, or creating new building materials or other stuff out of it. I think in the near future, people will pay a hefty premium for carbon storage due to carbon taxes (Check out this great GIF that illustrates carbon tax scheme growth: https://www.sightline.org/20…

"If you look at the recent IPCC reports, people are heavily betting on putting carbon back into the stable form"

This is more due to its political palatibility than its scientific value. It allows conclusions like "12 years to save the world" (not actually what the report says, but what the media was able to spin it as, and OP's interpretation) instead of a more honest assessment.

As for the EU's carbon trading scheme, it's a joke and efforts to strengthen it have failed due to lack of political will.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#150

Post by Consultant32452 »

netjiro wrote: post #21
cletus wrote: post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

> The Earth has also been a lot warmer than it is now Key here is rate of change, and what humans can survive. We are changing the climate many many times faster than ever before. Nature does not have the time to adapt. And the wars, famines and mass displacements coming from ecosystem collapse is like nothing we've seen in human history. Think we have a problem with a few million migrants? Try a billion or two! P-T…

>We are changing the climate many many times faster than ever before

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080619142112.h...

The ice core showed the Northern Hemisphere briefly emerged from the last ice age some 14,700 years ago with a 22-degree-Fahrenheit spike in just 50 years...

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