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China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

nytimes.com

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Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#91

Post by triviatise »

panarky wrote: post #78
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…

Not only in China. In 2010, the US Securities and Exchange Commission restricted the ability to sell shares short if the share price has declined more than 10%. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm Curious how there is no equivalent restriction on purchases if the share price has increased by 10%.

selling shares short is selling shares you dont own. There is no restriction on selling shares you dont own.

Short selling amplifies downturns because you dont have to own a share to sell it. There is no non option equivalent to short selling.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#92

Post by mistermann »

rqs wrote: post #76
mistermann wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. "China is Now More Expensive than the USA": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32t8d2eQJAA Almost everyone laughs when I say they should get some of their news from people who actually live in China rather than thinking something needs to be printed in the new…

From the comment section of that very video, I quote: > Freda Du: are you guys comparing one of the most expensive chinese cities with the average american (suburban/rural) rent? And comparing fine western dining (cuz apparently you think the $2 chinese meals will kill westerners..) with dollar menu? I lived in Shanghai, LA and NYC, let's make a major city to major city comparison here.. a single metro ride is $0.5 i…

Reality is what it is regardless of your or my opinion, and it seems to be human nature for individuals to have a tendency to want to paint it in one way or another (for example: "cuz apparently you think the $2 Chinese meals will kill westerners" - purely a figment of that person's imagination, regardless of it's accuracy).

If you're serious about trying to discern the reality of this situation as accurately as possible, the most useful metric I know of to look at is the affordability ratio, assuming you can find a source with genuinely honest, unmassaged data.

To me, the fundamentally important question seems to be: has the ability for the average person to own/rent the average shelter increased, decreased, or stayed constant over time? My opinion on the matter would be the whatever the answer to that question is. I don't happen to know the correct answer but I think a related question, how broadly is wealth distributed throughout the population (completely ignoring the "righteousness" of it), would be helpful in making a good guess at it.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#93

Post by gwern »

rossdavidh wrote: post #77

Cannot help but wonder if we are seeing, right here in this comment section here, people paid to counter any discussion of a bad Chinese economy. Of course, I'll probably never know for sure.

Chinese censorship doesn't appear to work that way: largely domestic, and focused on adding friction and distraction rather than criticism/rebuttal - https://qz.com/311832/hacked-emails-reveal-chinas-elaborate-... https://gking.harvard.edu/50c http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/experiment_0.pd...

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#94

Post by Chris_Chambers »

nscalf wrote: post #50
mabbo wrote: post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

Absolutely this. For all of the benefits that come along with globalization, there is very little talk about all of the risks that come along with it. And you can see this on many scales---when European nations "globalized" to include all of their neighbors, they exponentially increased the risk that they would undergo economic stress. They let go of their tight control over their own economy and their ability to qui…

The reason QE “didn’t work” is because it was a trick meant for the Federal Reserve’s cronies to steal (“buy”) a ton of our property and rent it back to us. QE worked perfectly.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#95

Post by bitxbit »

mabbo wrote: post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

This is the Opium Wars all over again.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#96

Post by taobility »

nradov wrote: post #82
rqs wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

Can Chinese citizens actually buy a house, or is the market still limited to long-term leases?

In a strict definition, yes, what Chinese called buy a property actually is buy the ownership for 70 years or lease it for 70 years. But if the whole market is in that way, there is no difference either call it lease or buy.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#97

Post by nradov »

taobility wrote: post #96
nradov wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can Chinese citizens actually buy a house, or is the market still limited to long-term leases?

In a strict definition, yes, what Chinese called buy a property actually is buy the ownership for 70 years or lease it for 70 years. But if the whole market is in that way, there is no difference either call it lease or buy.

It makes a huge difference when comparing Chinese real estate valuation and affordability with other countries that do allow purchases.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#98

Post by NicoJuicy »

mabbo wrote: post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

This was their plan all along, said the same 11 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15523954

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#99

Post by chii »

taobility wrote: post #96
nradov wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can Chinese citizens actually buy a house, or is the market still limited to long-term leases?

In a strict definition, yes, what Chinese called buy a property actually is buy the ownership for 70 years or lease it for 70 years. But if the whole market is in that way, there is no difference either call it lease or buy.

What happens after the 70 years is up? How does one pass the property to one's children if it's a "lease"?

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#100

Post by schuke »

chii wrote: post #99
taobility wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a strict definition, yes, what Chinese called buy a property actually is buy the ownership for 70 years or lease it for 70 years. But if the whole market is in that way, there is no difference either call it lease or buy.

What happens after the 70 years is up? How does one pass the property to one's children if it's a "lease"?

The property is yours but the land on which the property is built is leased for 70 years. After 70 years according to exiting Chinese law the lease is automatically renewed. There’s no limit on the total number of renewals.
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