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Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

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Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#51
post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

Each generation faces annihilation. Just because humans survived so far - and it has been close [1] - doesn't mean it was a lot of luck involved.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/h...

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#52
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people think the inequality has gone down significantly (I'm in that camp), but others point out to things like Bezos and a few others owning more assets than 80% of the world combined. Regardless, AI is bound to increase inequality. Just yesterday we discussed this book [1] on probabilistic programming here on HN [2]. That book is, by all definitions, an advanced book about AI. How many people without a PhD can…

Perhaps humankind needs a "Butlerian Jihad", as defined in the Dune novels, where all machines made in the image of a human brain are banned for all time.

Arguably we don't have machines that are made in the image of a human brain, so that wouldn't change things right now.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#53
Replace AI with cake :)

"Either we need an exponential improvement in human behavior — less selfishness, less short-termism, more collaboration, more generosity — or we need more cake.

"If you look at current geopolitics, I don't think we're going to be getting an exponential improvement in human behavior any time soon.

"That's why we need more cake"

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#54
post #51
post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

Each generation faces annihilation. Just because humans survived so far - and it has been close [1] - doesn't mean it was a lot of luck involved. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/h...

A non-zero probability that probability is involved.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#55
post #51
post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

Each generation faces annihilation. Just because humans survived so far - and it has been close [1] - doesn't mean it was a lot of luck involved. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/h...

Well that's OK then (???)

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#56
post #40

It's sad that a well paid person and probably smart person like Demis Hassabis is so wrong in his view about how the world is. To quote the article quoting Hassabis, "The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate change, sustainability, mass inequality — which is getting worse — diseases, and healthcare, we're not making progress anywhere near fast enough in any of these a…

He is primarily a salesman, is he not?

> 'probably smart', 'primarily a salesman'

"A child prodigy in chess, Hassabis reached master standard at the age of 13"

"graduating in 1997 with a Double First[13] from the University of Cambridge"

"obtain[ed] his PhD in cognitive neuroscience from University College London"

"[his] theoretical account of the episodic memory system [...] was listed in the top 10 scientific breakthroughs of the year in any field by the journal Science"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#57
post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

> It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else.

If you mean by "to end" something like "to extinguish" than I think this hyperbole is enormous.

If you mean by "to end" that the civilization will change, than there is nothing new under the sun. If I look at pictures from 19th century, which is very recent, I am always baffled at how much have changed in the passing of time.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use) This may be. But then, you have two choices: let humans hit the growth ceiling, which will result in mass starvation and death, or lift the ceiling . Technology is the very thing that allows us to continuously lift the ceiling, so it's obvious that any solution not involving mass murde…

I don't think that a stable population level requires mass starvation or some such thing. Most of the developed world is already at zero or slightly negative population growth, all it required was birth control. (A technology, to your point).

We could achieve a stable population, but we're still growing our energy use - and will be for some time, as there's something like 2 billion people who also want to have western living standards (like hot water and washing machines).

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#59
post #50

It's sad that a well paid person and probably smart person like Demis Hassabis is so wrong in his view about how the world is. To quote the article quoting Hassabis, "The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate change, sustainability, mass inequality — which is getting worse — diseases, and healthcare, we're not making progress anywhere near fast enough in any of these a…

For climate change we're not even close to making enough progress. Global CO2 emissions are expected to continue rising for the foreseeable future, so we're not even getting the second derivative right. The chances are close to zero that we'll manage to limit warming to two degrees and imho it's likely that we'll set off some feedback loops (melting permafrost, methane clathrates, albedo changes at the poles, etc.) t…

Agree.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#60
post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

> It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations.

The reason why so many people don't take climate change seriously is because of extreme hyperbole like this. Climate change is outdoing even the "peak oil" craze of the past. If you think civilization is going to end in 40 years ( 2 generations ), then you leave no room for debate.

> A rational society would think about nothing else.

No. A rational society would think about lots of other things. Zealots think about nothing else.

Climate change is going to create challenges and opportunities. The societies/people better able to adapt will thrive. Others won't.

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