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China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

nytimes.com

51–60 of 111 posts

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#51
post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy.

So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing bubble thing is like textbook example of "How not do your economy".

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#52
post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

"There is no question that China will have a difficult adjustment, but it is likely to take the form of a long process rather than a sudden crisis." -- Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/77178

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#53
post #51
post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade.

In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan since artificial intervention is much deeper and prolonged.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#54
post #9
post #8

I'm not particularly convinced this is much worse than what happens in the west, where people get their news from biased sources, be they Fox News, CNN, or Facebook. Sure, there's the theoretical difference, censorship is bad, etc., but practically speaking, the result does not feel that different...

It is much worse, given that in the west biased reporting and cover ups can be publicly denounced, whether by other biased sources at the other end of the spectrum or in social media, whereas in China it is not allowed to disclose by any means that bad economic news is being suppressed.

Unless you are Alex Jones.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#55
post #47
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guarantee that Trump has zero influence on how the NYT reports on the economy.

That's not true, if a piece of economic information would be damaging to Trump it would likely get even more coverage.

Isn’t that the opposite of influence though?

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#56
post #8

I'm not particularly convinced this is much worse than what happens in the west, where people get their news from biased sources, be they Fox News, CNN, or Facebook. Sure, there's the theoretical difference, censorship is bad, etc., but practically speaking, the result does not feel that different...

In the West there are biased sources (it's impossible to have unbiased sources because there's no consistent agreement on what "unbiased" could be) but there's actually a lot of diversity of content. It's pretty easy to find some articles arguing different sides and get a decent idea of the whole situation, which is obviously not true when the government censors content.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#57
post #47
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guarantee that Trump has zero influence on how the NYT reports on the economy.

That's not true, if a piece of economic information would be damaging to Trump it would likely get even more coverage.

In certain media but in other media the opposite it true. The top cable news network for the last decade has been conservative (Fox obviously) and conservative media absolutely dominates talk radio and it also has a robust Internet presence.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#58
post #51
post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

I hadn't heard about that, but it clarifies something. I've got in-laws in China, and many of them own older condos that they no longer live in. When I asked my wife why they don't sell, she just said there's zero resale value, which made no sense to me. But a law preventing the sale could explain it.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#59
post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

[deleted]

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#60
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…

> what we have in China is much worse than japan since artificial intervention is much deeper and prolonged

I think it's the question of whether or not it's going to pop.

If the housing bubble did popped, then we are screwed a big time, worse than what Japanese once had. But if it didn't, then the leverage is still there and economy maybe low at worse, but stable.

I don't think everything is concluded at this point, because SSE 000001[0] is showing sign of very slow recover. And the censorship on economic news in my opinion is rather one effort to preventing domino effect.

[0] https://www.google.com/search?ei=P3KzW_6LF4fUwQKM77uYAg&btnG...

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