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Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

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Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#31

Post by MagnumOpus »

crc32 wrote: post #15
tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Inequality is not decreasing by all measures, for example: "Income inequality in OECD countries is at its highest level for the past half century." [1] While it is true that global inequality might be decreasing, localised levels are important, especially when existing in regions which might be considered "economic drivers"; because it has important implications for the stability of those regions, and this is highly…

With globalisation, inequality _within_ countries has increased but inequality _globally_ is falling as the poorer half of the world is catching up.

(Not nice for the unskilled Appalachian miner, but nice for the skilled Ukrainian coder or Indian engineer.)

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#32

Post by xbmcuser »

wnkrshm wrote: post #23
oerpli wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument is pretty straightforward: You take the following things as premises: a.) Humans tend to reproduce, often above-reproduction level b.) Humans usually tend to optimize their well-being c.) Well-being of individuals of your own species is more important than well-being of other species The first two should be uncontroversial. The third one is not uncontroversial but still the foundation of most leg…

I wouldn't say that your premise a) is uncontroversial - it's estimated that the global population will become stationary by 2050 or 2040, not limited by simply lots of people being born and even more dieing from starvation but a globally decreasing birth rate. I.e. people adapt to the environment by having fewer children, because they don't need as many for their family to survive.

2050 the population will be 20% more than current levels we already are producing more carbon and other polutants than the world can handle . It does not matter if the population will stagnate in the future as current population is already to high.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#33

Post by credit_guy »

tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Some people think the inequality has gone down significantly (I'm in that camp), but others point out to things like Bezos and a few others owning more assets than 80% of the world combined.

Regardless, AI is bound to increase inequality. Just yesterday we discussed this book [1] on probabilistic programming here on HN [2]. That book is, by all definitions, an advanced book about AI. How many people without a PhD can read that? How many people with a PhD can read it? Well, guess what, people who can and do read this book earn more than people who don't. That's AI driving inequality. Before AI will create the mythical HAL or other self-aware machines, it will enable humongous productivity for the top 0.01% most highly educated engineers.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.10756

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18109260

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#35

Post by drabiger »

It's sad that a well paid person and probably smart person like Demis Hassabis is so wrong in his view about how the world is.

To quote the article quoting Hassabis, "The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate change, sustainability, mass inequality — which is getting worse — diseases, and healthcare, we're not making progress anywhere near fast enough in any of these areas."

Fortunately, that's not true, as is shown in Factfulness: http://a.co/d/cau5vUv

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#37

Post by fallingfrog »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #11
kilpikaarna wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Been following this guy since he was at Lionhead, and while he's obviously a very very smart guy, it's disappointing that he puts his hope in techno-fixes. To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use), and while technology can be used to tweak the parameters of the growth curve, as it were, the eventual outcome stays more or l…

> To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use) This may be. But then, you have two choices: let humans hit the growth ceiling, which will result in mass starvation and death, or lift the ceiling . Technology is the very thing that allows us to continuously lift the ceiling, so it's obvious that any solution not involving mass murde…

I don't think that a stable population level requires mass starvation or some such thing. Most of the developed world is already at zero or slightly negative population growth, all it required was birth control. (A technology, to your point).

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#38

Post by a008t »

vbuwivbiu wrote: post #13
tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

it's still an exponential distribution isn't it ?

Distribution of assets or distribution of consumption? I would argue the former is a complete red herring and if one is to be concerned about any inequality, it's inequality of consumption.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#39

Post by fallingfrog »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #6
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

Frankly, I can't really understand how come people believe what you just wrote. Yes, technology created many problems, but we can't solve them by doing less technology, without reintroducing problems we've already solved. We can either not solve them, or try to solve it with more progress (likely introducing new problems as well). In other words: we dug a hole for ourselves with technology, but the only way we can di…

more might not be the right word. different perhaps. Technology is such an ill defined term, it's easy to talk past each other.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#40

Post by a008t »

drabiger wrote: post #35

It's sad that a well paid person and probably smart person like Demis Hassabis is so wrong in his view about how the world is. To quote the article quoting Hassabis, "The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate change, sustainability, mass inequality — which is getting worse — diseases, and healthcare, we're not making progress anywhere near fast enough in any of these a…

He is primarily a salesman, is he not?
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