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Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

research.mozilla.org

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Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#101
post #69

I smell a Correlation-Is-not-Causation fallacy here.

Could you elaborate as to why you believe there is no causation here? Those who use ad-blockers do so for the explicit reason of making the web more tolerable; a more tolerable web is therefore more desirable to browse.

This is proving just as clearly that the more you use a web browser, the more likely it is that you will block ads.

The only evidence here is correlation.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you intentionally unaware that they have been doing this ( C.f. webpayments API)? Or is this work going to be a complete surprise to you? I know https://wiki.mozilla.org/Firefox/Features/Web_Payments only mentions 2017 but this stuff has been in play since 2015.

Web Payments doesn't address micropayments or actual payment authorization. It's just a standard way to collect and submit data.

As great as Web Payments is, there are obvious problems with the system (largely around privacy and anonymity). At Brave we launched a similar system on the BAT (ERC20) token. In Brave Rewards (formerly Brave Payments), users are able to (via ANONIZE2 and ad-hoc VPN connections) anonymously contribute to content creators based on attention distribution. If the browser spent 10% of it's time viewing the content from one particular YouTuber, 10% of the user's monthly BAT budget would go to the content creator. This system leverages the pseudononymous nature of the blockchain to offset the cost of user an ad-blocker. Low friction, privacy, and secure.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#103

Mozilla should work on a micro-payment system that is inbuilt into the browser. Ultimately that is the only solution to a web that values user privacy and prevents the psychological toll of ads. 1. Obviously, the micro-payment system should not be selling my usage data to anyone. Perhaps some cryptographic techniques can be used to increase trust in the service. 2. The price for each page should be low - a cent or le…

Yes for the sake of independent content creators please introduce such a system, Mozilla. People might run to Firefox, the first ad-less browser. Other vendors can adopt it later.

This is why we created Brave Rewards (formerly Brave Payments) in the Brave browser. Today more than 4 million monthly active users are able to support YouTubers, Twitch streamers, and other content creators via pro-rata contributions of Basic Attention Token. Via the ANONIZE2 protocol and ad-hoc VPN connections, users are able to support online content in a low-friction, anonymous, and private manner.

We're working on Brave Ads too, which will be an opt-in component of the browser which leverages client-side machine-learning to match ads, reduce fraud, and pay more to content creators. Further, Brave Ads will pay the user for their attention—as much as 70% of the ad revenue.

This study is great, follows years of evidence that the web runs on advertising, and that ad-blocking is becoming the new norm. Brave is looking at the horizon, and working on the long-term sustainability problem. Brave Rewards and Brave Ads is showing promise.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#104
post #53

Mozilla should work on a micro-payment system that is inbuilt into the browser. Ultimately that is the only solution to a web that values user privacy and prevents the psychological toll of ads. 1. Obviously, the micro-payment system should not be selling my usage data to anyone. Perhaps some cryptographic techniques can be used to increase trust in the service. 2. The price for each page should be low - a cent or le…

I have serious reservations about making the web pay-to-play. Low-income people would suffer from this, here in the US but definitely elsewhere in poorer countries. It's essentially a regressive tax on the web. Furthermore, low-income people often run into barriers securing access to the kinds of payment systems micropayments would use (credit cards, etc.). It's also completely unregulated -- if you thought micropaym…

It is not a tax, it is starting to treat the web like a market and not a state subsidized experimental project. Something that has been going on for far too long.

If you're worried about poor people do something to increase their standard of living. Access to cat gifs is a lot priority when your the only drinking water you have is filled with lead.

Setting the cost of using a website by traffic makes about as much sense as deciding how much things in the super market cost by weight. A liter of water being 10 times as expensive as a 100g stake.

Websites and services should have the freedom of setting their prices to whatever they want. Just like how every other market works.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#105
post #68

> In the group that installed an ad blocker, we find significant increases in both active time spent in the browser (+28% over control) and the number of pages viewed (+15% over control), while seeing no change in the number of searches. I'm struck by the almost numerical identity of their adblock correlate on page views with the long-term causaleffect on total site traffic I estimated in my banner ad A/B test ( http…

It seems to me like this study is looking at the correlation of heavy usage and ad blocker usage, and jumping to the conclusion that blocking ads is a cause for using the web more, and not the other way around.

It is correlational, yes, but it's consistent with what we expect (surely no one expects ads to have zero or even positive effects on Internet usage?), the direction & size of the effect are consistent with the 2 most relevant randomized experiments (linked in my comment), and they have longitudinal data which lets them control for a decent number of baseline characteristics like, to quote from the propensity scoring section:

- Active hours: Total time the user spent interacting with the browser - Session length: Total browser session time - Number of subsessions: Total Telemetry reports - Total tab open events: Number of tabs opened - Total URI count: Total number of pages loaded - Unique URI count: Number of unique websites (TLD+1) visited - Address bar searches: Number of searches initiated from the address bar - Search bar searches: Number of searches initiated from the dedicated search bar - Total Yahoo searches: Number of searches made using the Yahoo search engine - Total Google searches: Number of searches made using the Google search engine - Total searches: Total number of searches overall initiated from one of the Firefox search bars - Number of bookmarks: Total bookmarks added - Length of history: Total number of pages visited

So everyone with an adblocker had normal activity levels at the start (compared to the non-adblock-user they are 'matched' with by the propensity scoring), but after installation, then the adblocker people saw large increases in activity that their non-adblock counterparts, who were web browsing just as much before hand, did not experience.

This largely rules out the reverse causation of 'browsing -> adblock installation'. It could still be driven by people forecasting that they will be doing a lot of web browsing in the future and installing adblock before they begin doing all the extra browsing, but this feels a lot less plausible to me.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#106
post #18

Mozilla should work on a micro-payment system that is inbuilt into the browser. Ultimately that is the only solution to a web that values user privacy and prevents the psychological toll of ads. 1. Obviously, the micro-payment system should not be selling my usage data to anyone. Perhaps some cryptographic techniques can be used to increase trust in the service. 2. The price for each page should be low - a cent or le…

This should be adopted by every browser maker for this to work. If we assume it is adopted then there is the issue that somewhere it is stored what sites I visited. It has to be, because it's needed if there is a payment dispute, for example. ("I was charged for that site, but I never visited it.")

None of this needs to be stored off-device. With Brave Rewards (in the Brave browser), the list of sites you visit remains on your device. Each month the ANONIZE2 protocol is leveraged to anonymously report time-spent on each domain (via an ad-hoc VPN connection to mask location) and pay those online-properties accordingly. The entire system remains opt-in, user-controlled, and secure. No private information is stored or shared with anybody else.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#107

Mozilla should work on a micro-payment system that is inbuilt into the browser. Ultimately that is the only solution to a web that values user privacy and prevents the psychological toll of ads. 1. Obviously, the micro-payment system should not be selling my usage data to anyone. Perhaps some cryptographic techniques can be used to increase trust in the service. 2. The price for each page should be low - a cent or le…

You might be describing the Brave browser and BAT tokens...

Agreed (Disclaimer: I work on the Brave browser)

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#108
post #78

> adblocker | either AdBlock Plus (ABP) or uBlock Origin, the two most popular ad-blocking Firefox add-ons Adblock Plus ("ABP") does not block a lot of ads by default, as ABP's "Acceptable ads" is opt-out -- i.e. it is enabled by default. I wonder if this was taken into account, and if not surely this affected the result of measuring "the effect of ad blocking on user engagement with the web", as you can't categorize…

If many of the 'adblock users' are still being exposed to occasional ads which are 'acceptable', then presumably the true effect of ads is even worse than estimated.

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you elaborate as to why you believe there is no causation here? Those who use ad-blockers do so for the explicit reason of making the web more tolerable; a more tolerable web is therefore more desirable to browse.

This is proving just as clearly that the more you use a web browser, the more likely it is that you will block ads. The only evidence here is correlation.

> This is proving just as clearly that the more you use a web browser, the more likely it is that you will block ads.

No. That's the point of using propensity matching in a longitudinal dataset. What this 'proves' is that 'when two new Firefox users who use a web browser an equal amount (as defined by a number of variables like time-in-browser or total-TLDs or total-URLs) are compared, one of whom installs adblock and one who does not, afterwards, the adblock user subsequently increases their web browser use compared to the non-adblock user'. As they put it:

> Restricting to new users who installed Firefox during a specific time period, we select a test group of users who installed an ad blocker, and a control group that did not. The selection is performed using a matching technique applied to baseline user features, which allows us to infer a degree of causality from the observed effects. We then compare test group Web usage after installing the ad blocker to control group usage over a comparable period, controlling for baseline usage levels. This is sometimes referred to as analysis of covariance, and is closely related to difference-in-difference analysis...This is achieved using matching. Each test group member is paired with a similar member of the control group, where similarity is determined based on features observed during the baseline period. This ensures that the groups start off “more or less the same”, e.g. that one group is not biased towards more engaged users...Taking into account the matching and adjustments made to ensure comparability between the groups, we find that installing an ad blocker does in fact have a strong effect on average Web engagement. Users who installed an ad blocker were active in the browser for around 28% more time on average, and loaded 15% more pages (URIs), controlling for baseline activity.

(Which of course still doesn't prove causation, because there is 1 remaining possibility: some third factor caused both the adblock installation and then later in time the increased web browsing. But it doesn't prove what you say it does.)

Re: Firefox: The Effect of Ad Blocking on User Engagement with the Web [pdf]

#110

If you accept that advertising is necessary to some business models, I hope to see publishers move ads back to the server because I think eliminating all the code from the client would drastically improve user experience. This would make them tougher to block and hinder users ability to control privacy, but it would also restrict tracking to that specific site.

>I hope to see publishers move ads back to the server because I think eliminating all the code from the client would drastically improve user experience. How so? it still needs to be downloaded to the browser, and integrated with the content the use actually wants to see.

If it's not running on a separate server, then you can't eliminate just by blocking doubleclick.com or adsrv.com or some other such domain that hosts advertising.

If it was hosted by the same server that produces the content, then it would be harder though not impossible to block. It would also be harder to just mass block like you can at the moment. You would need to block for individual sites by targeting the div class name that they use.

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