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Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

blogs.reuters.com

21–30 of 52 posts

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#21
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The determining factor in economics varies as a function of the problems and matters connected to what is inside people themselves. "Because the consciousness that moves us is making a world." A simple example to demonstrate that it is possible to predict things about this society to a nontrivial degree, is the products and activities of Apple Inc. They have great marketing foresight. But besides that, it sounds like…

You are right that predicting trends is not that hard. When it comes to financial prices the issue is that you are effectively predicting small changes in trends, plus a lot of noise added on by trading activity itself. Much harder.

"Supercomputers" here we come... :)

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#22
post #9

Because what his theory boils down to is that you can't predict the market. Pointing out that the market is describable by a self-similar fractal froth is an interesting thought, but it basically means that if true, you can't predict anything with any effectiveness. (Oh, you might be able to use that idea to tune yourself up something that might work slightly better on a small time scale, but as the market has sped u…

Who wants to listen to a party pooper like that?

Yes, yes, yes! The exact correct point.

Mandlebrot's finance papers, in published in the 1960's, refute Black and Schole's Nobel Prize winning theories of the 1990's. Who wants to hear that?

Does Mandlebrot rate a Nobel himself? Why of course not...

Mandlebrot pointed the way to "another country", one which marketing can not describe...

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#23
post #15
post #9

Because what his theory boils down to is that you can't predict the market. Pointing out that the market is describable by a self-similar fractal froth is an interesting thought, but it basically means that if true, you can't predict anything with any effectiveness. (Oh, you might be able to use that idea to tune yourself up something that might work slightly better on a small time scale, but as the market has sped u…

I think the standard model also tells you that you cannot do much, no ? The efficient market hypothesis from Fama somewhat boils down to the fact that you cannot beat the market unless you have information that other don't have. Another reason for the "conventional" methods success seems to be related to their empirical testability, at a certain period of time. The best article on Mandelbrot and the link with finance…

I think the standard model also tells you that you cannot do much, no?

Well, as a matter of fact...

--- No, not true.

The "standard model" predicts a kind of randomness which is fundamentally tractable. It comes down to Gaussian versus non-Gaussian stable distribitions. A Gaussian model predicts that total market changes mostly come from day-to-day, small incremental changes - ie, a Gaussian model is equivalent to Brownian.

In stable, non-Gaussian distribution, a good percentage of total changes come from a finite number of rather large changes.

In the Gaussian model, an investor has time get out before the going gets rough. In a non-Gaussian model, that investor doesn't. The last few years have made the non-Gaussian/L2-stable/"Mandlebrotian" model much more plausible.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#24

I really wouldn't take an article seriously if it partially blames the '87 stock market crash on Black-Scholes (basic model for pricing European options). That makes literally zero sense.

It makes literally zero sense unless you know something about that crash and the financial markets of the time. In which case it makes perfect sense.

The Black-Scholes model provides a recipe for creating synthetic options that will (under the assumption of known volatility) act just like real ones. Which is convenient because you can create synthetic versions of options that people want to have but which are not traded. Leading up to the '87 market crash, lots and lots of these synthetic options were created. Then came the crash.

People can debate endlessly about why the crash started. But once it did, there is no question that trading algorithms attempted to close out trades that were necessary to maintain synthetic options. These large trades attempted to execute in markets that had seized up, and made the market much, much worse. The result contributed greatly to the crash, and caused the synthetic options to fail to work as promised. (Besides, the Black-Scholes algorithm guarantees that it acts like an option through a certain amount of variation in the stock price, and not for a particular time period. The volatility of the crash demonstrated the importance of this discrepancy.)

Now do you see how the Black-Scholes model contributed to that crash?

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#25
For those who don't understand the Black-Scholes references, here is a quick explanation.

What Black and Scholes proved in their famous paper is that if you start with a portfolio containing a certain fraction of money and stock, and rebalance the portfolio constantly as the stock price moves according to certain rules, then after a fixed amount of fluctuation in the stock price you will be left with either pure stock or pure money, depending on the eventual price of the stock. In short, this portfolio acts exactly like an option. And therefore the price of an option should match the price of the portfolio. If it doesn't match, then you can buy one and sell the other to get free money until they do match.

This is fine, but in the real world we trade options based on a fixed period of time, not a fixed amount of variation in the stock. The answer to this which finance uses is to estimate the volatility of the stock. Given known volatility, and a known time period, you can tell how much variation there is, and then use the Black-Scholes model to price options.

Mandelbrot's critique of this is that volatility itself is not constant. Therefore you can't really predict when the Black-Scholes portfolio will expire. In particular the model systemically underestimates the likelihood of extreme events. When this catches all of finance off guard, the result is frequently some sort of crisis.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#26
post #9

Because what his theory boils down to is that you can't predict the market. Pointing out that the market is describable by a self-similar fractal froth is an interesting thought, but it basically means that if true, you can't predict anything with any effectiveness. (Oh, you might be able to use that idea to tune yourself up something that might work slightly better on a small time scale, but as the market has sped u…

"Because what his theory boils down to is that you can't predict the market."

Citation needed, please. By the way, my good sir, RenTech and others have shown over the past two decades or so that it's possible to predict the market... at least in the very, very short term. We have very solid empirical evidence of that, but some intellectual nihilists prefer to ignore that.

"Pointing out that the market is describable by a self-similar fractal froth is an interesting thought, but it basically means that if true, you can't predict anything with any effectiveness."

Please define "predict" and "effectiveness". If you have access to order book data, I guarantee you that you will find pockets of predictability.

A deep question would be: why is that the collective behavior of millions of agents acting in their own self-interest generate fractal patterns? Can that be derived from first principles? Moreover, what exactly would exhibit fractal behavior? The price time series? But they are only a very low-dimensional picture of a very high-dimensional beast, which is order flow. The mathematics that make sense in financial markets are not stochastic processes not fractals, but game theory.

"Who wants to listen to a party pooper like that?"

More like: who wants to listen to a pompous, bitter old academic who once did some interesting work in Mathematics and who is now trying to force his aesthetics on other people's fields of knowledge?

"Shall we say, the evidence somewhat suggests that pervasive underestimation of risk can potentially have slightly negative effects on the global economy."

And airplanes sometimes crash, and ships sometimes sink. From the very definition of risk, your statement is a truism.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#27
post #24

I really wouldn't take an article seriously if it partially blames the '87 stock market crash on Black-Scholes (basic model for pricing European options). That makes literally zero sense.

It makes literally zero sense unless you know something about that crash and the financial markets of the time. In which case it makes perfect sense. The Black-Scholes model provides a recipe for creating synthetic options that will (under the assumption of known volatility) act just like real ones. Which is convenient because you can create synthetic versions of options that people want to have but which are not tra…

automatic trading based on Black-Scholes acerbated the crash != the Black Scholes model contributed to the crash

Unrelatedly, is there anything wrong with, say, a mortgage-backed security accurately priced according to a particular model, so long as the limitations of the particular model's assumptions are properly understood? This applies to any model in economics or finance. All are obviously just simplifications of reality.

The technical assumptions of a mathematical model should not be blamed for the actions of ignorant or reckless investors.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#28
post #11

I really wouldn't take an article seriously if it partially blames the '87 stock market crash on Black-Scholes (basic model for pricing European options). That makes literally zero sense.

No kidding, blaming the math for the crash is like rearranging deck chairs on the titanic. "Our models told us our plans were unsinkable so we went right ahead into the icebergs"

Exactly.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#29
post #7

I used to explain this with Upton Sinclare's great quote: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" Now, older and perhaps a bit more jaded, I would modify that to "Do not assume that someone doesn't understand something. Assume that he is assuming someone else doesn't understand that something." Or, more succinctly, "There's a sucker born every min…

Sinclare's quotation describes a self-actuated internal lack of awareness while yours does not.

Call it personal growth.

Re: Why didn’t people in finance pay attention to Benoit Mandelbrot?

#30
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes literally zero sense unless you know something about that crash and the financial markets of the time. In which case it makes perfect sense. The Black-Scholes model provides a recipe for creating synthetic options that will (under the assumption of known volatility) act just like real ones. Which is convenient because you can create synthetic versions of options that people want to have but which are not tra…

automatic trading based on Black-Scholes acerbated the crash != the Black Scholes model contributed to the crash Unrelatedly, is there anything wrong with, say, a mortgage-backed security accurately priced according to a particular model, so long as the limitations of the particular model's assumptions are properly understood? This applies to any model in economics or finance. All are obviously just simplifications o…

You don't get a very big explosion with just a fuse, and no combustible material. Without the combustible material, the fuse just fizzles out, no great harm done.

It's a separate thing to blame a bad idea, versus blaming the people who thought the bad idea was true. Language is ambiguous; trying to weasel one's way out of "this idea is bad" by saying "the people who think this idea, they're bad; it's not the idea itself", is IMO trying to rely on the imprecision of casual language to refute an argument only for a single formulation, but not in spirit. Ideas have no life of their own outside people's heads. The same argument can be applied to say that there is no such thing as a bad idea.

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