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Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

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11–20 of 72 posts

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#11
post #9
post #4

It seems like a system of phone money transfer (something like M-Pesa) would be pretty helpful there.

The problem I suspect is that the local banking system isn’t super great, needing enough money to buy a smart phone in order to accept payment seems risky.

M-Pesa doesn't need smartphones. Most farmers probably are already using dumb feature phones.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#12
post #10

This is a super neat article. I do wonder if some of the big asset purchases (the motorbike example) are also to act as a non-bank money store? Much easier to lock up a bike than a pile of money, etc.

This makes a lot of sense and seems obvious, actually. I'm surprised the author didn't make that connection, especially while pointing out that sometimes the fancy motorbike would be owned by an old Grandpa who had no intention of riding it, and rather spent all day polishing it (that is, trying to mitigate depreciation).

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#13
post #10

This is a super neat article. I do wonder if some of the big asset purchases (the motorbike example) are also to act as a non-bank money store? Much easier to lock up a bike than a pile of money, etc.

Yes, this is quite common around the world where there aren't banking institutions or if the local currency is too untrustworthy to hold for longer periods of time. I have relatives in eastern Turkey that have been perpetually building one house or another in a piecemeal fashion(a wall here, a wall there, etc), as money comes in, for the past 40+ years.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#14
post #5

To me this means vanilla prices are being manipulated. If the farmers themself are not demanding so much money, then who is? Someone is artificially restricting supply, or inflating prices. Wonder how long it will go on before it crashes....

The farmers generally know that more money is better than less money, even if they will ultimately spend most in what we might see as a frivolous fashion.

If anyone was gaming the market on this level, they would be giving fewer proceeds to the uninformed farmer, not more.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#15
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually surprised by how good the wood pulp version tastes. Unless I'm buying straight up vanilla ice cream, I don't mind the wood pulp version of vanilla at all. If it's vanilla with stuff mixed into it, I won't really be able to tell the difference.

It's my understanding that modern "imitation" vanilla is chemically identical to the natural stuff. Even so, I buy the regular...

It doubt that imitation vanilla copies all the chemicals that are present in natural vanilla, as there must be hundreds. With artificial flavorings they usually only copy the most dominant component.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#16
post #15
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's my understanding that modern "imitation" vanilla is chemically identical to the natural stuff. Even so, I buy the regular...

It doubt that imitation vanilla copies all the chemicals that are present in natural vanilla, as there must be hundreds. With artificial flavorings they usually only copy the most dominant component.

You're right, but vanillin (C8H8O3) is very dominant (even in natural vanilla) and, as natural vanilla is cooked, a lot of the other compounds tend to be destroyed.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#17
post #5

To me this means vanilla prices are being manipulated. If the farmers themself are not demanding so much money, then who is? Someone is artificially restricting supply, or inflating prices. Wonder how long it will go on before it crashes....

If you want to manipulate a market that big you’d better have very deep pockets or be willing to take a very large loss. It’s easy to drive up the price of something, buy lots of it. It’s easy to drop the price of something, sell down your stockpile. The only way to make money by buying lots of something and then selling loads of it later is by successfully predicting that future demand will be higher than current demand.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#18
This is a pretty fascinating article even though it is frustratingly superficial. It seems like there are a bunch of different threads here that would benefit from exploration; the behavioral economics thread; the anthropology thread, the climate change thread ( notice how weather has changed the price repeatedly in the article ), and the producer/consumer disjunction thread. Maybe the author should do some more fieldwork and turn it into a book.

The Malagasy vanilla farmers behavior in the face of a windfall is not that different from many Americans actions in similar circumstances from what I've seen. People with a sudden access of money will often splurge on bizarre displays of wealth, sports cars and motorcycles, fancy clothing they rarely wear; etc. Often not because they have a long-held desire for the toys they are buying but because they have a cultural template of what wealth and success should look like that they are trying to act out.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#19

Isn't most vanillin created as a byproduct of the paper industry? Also, I hope the prices of the real stuff goes down, at least for a few months.

I'm actually surprised by how good the wood pulp version tastes. Unless I'm buying straight up vanilla ice cream, I don't mind the wood pulp version of vanilla at all. If it's vanilla with stuff mixed into it, I won't really be able to tell the difference.

I bought a bottle of synthetic and a bottle of organic real vanilla extract recently, and did a taste/smell test.

The synthetic smelled and tasted like vanilla-flavored motor oil and rubbing alcohol. It was terrible, and cheap, and plentiful. I can't imagine what I could use it in to mask that chemical flavor. Ugh.

Re: Bracing for the Vanilla Boom

#20
It actually makes tons of sense to invest in non-cash goods to trade later when there's a bust. But no matter what form your profits are in, the big risk in Madagascar (besides the cyclones) seems to be the gangs. Drivers regularly get murdered driving across territories controlled by gangs. There's really not much law enforcement to speak of and the country is insanely poor, considering all this vanilla commerce.

The vanilla trade often takes advantage of the people living in vulnerable communities and doesn't pay a living wage. If we all want ethical access to quality vanilla, we need to start asking buyers to start sourcing certified fair trade (or better) vanilla, and to work to improve the fair trade system.

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