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Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

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Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#111

Post by dagw »

bodas wrote: post #104
snaky wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you feel yourself being close to China?

As far as I can see, the EU has a neutral relationship with China but a hostile relationship with the US.

I don't think this a true at all. The EU, certainly as an institution, has still has a very strong, open and positive relationship with the US. Sure Trump is adding a lot of uncertainty and putting a strain on that, but most people a) interact with more stable parts of the government bureaucracy rather than directly with the White House and b) consider Trump an anomalous outlier and within 5-10 years we'll be back to business as usual.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#112

Post by polotics »

dalbasal wrote: post #93

" Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia to create special financial infrastructure to work with Iran " hmmm... There's a story here about Iran-US, a story about the "western coalition," a story about the dollar's special status (maybe). There's also a story about this "special financial infrastructure/ vehicle." WTF is that infrastructure? Why are Germany, France & Britain and keen on this? These thing can (ofte…

It's a very coherent piece IMHO, just assumes some context knowledge from its readership. About what this does, may I suggest you please look up "exorbitant privilege"? About a new multipolar world I differ: the world is very much unipolar now, the petrodollar got defended tooth and nail. There is no such thing as a separate military realm, it's all about power, soft or hard as required to extract tribute.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#113

Post by snaky »

miracle2k wrote: post #103
snaky wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I couldn't find the word 'court' in https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/08/285043.htm

Certainly sanctioned or fined European banks would have the ability to challenge the measures in a US court. On the other hand, sanctions on a state are usually met with an equivalent response, and the only question is how powerful the other side is. In the case of the EU, the answer is, not powerless. Look, the US has a lot of cards to play. But randomly bullying banks who didnt do anything wrong, as per your sugges…

> effective

It depends. If that would make some voters happy enough to vote Republicans in November, wouldn't it be effective?

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#114

Post by vixen99 »

jsiepkes wrote: post #67
bepotts wrote: post #60

Sounds about as likely as that EU army that was supposed to make the EU independent of NATO, and thus, the US. How's that working out? The EU constantly talks about challenging US power (Macron and Merkel in particular), but almost never do. I'm sure this will be more of the same.

Well for one because with the current leadership in the US there is for the first time in history enough incentive to actually push through.

Looking at the increasing disarray in Europe, you'd have to be exuberantly optimistic to believe that.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#115

Post by NTDF9 »

babayega2 wrote: post #78
sschueller wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very interesting, do you have any books or articles you can recommend on the topic?

A very insightful videos is [0] by Peter Zeihan, presents he read on the US's role in near future of global geopolitics: the shale revolution [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU

Wow, that's the biggest horseshit I've seen since Trump inauguration lies. There's enough uncited storytelling in there to be a nice conspiracy theory documentary.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#116

Post by Symbiote »

sghiassy wrote: post #47
chvid wrote: post #42

This article makes absolutely no sense. The EU chosing Iran over the US?! That is not what is going to happen over the reopened Iran deal. What is going to happen is that the EU will fall in line and Iran will be forced to withdraw its activities in Syria, Iraq, Yemen ... due to the severity of the economic hardship caused by the sanctions.

It’s about Europe choosing sovereignty over their own international politics rather than cow towing to the US. It’s not the EU preferring Iran over the US

> cow towing

I like that, but the English word is "kowtow", borrowed from Chinese.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kowtow

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#117

Post by chvid »

jsiepkes wrote: post #67
bepotts wrote: post #60

Sounds about as likely as that EU army that was supposed to make the EU independent of NATO, and thus, the US. How's that working out? The EU constantly talks about challenging US power (Macron and Merkel in particular), but almost never do. I'm sure this will be more of the same.

Well for one because with the current leadership in the US there is for the first time in history enough incentive to actually push through.

Push through with what?

True independence of the us requires a military that the eu does not have (and even less now that the brits are leaving).

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#118

Post by dagw »

IBM wrote: post #71
tanilama wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US has this clout because it controls a large part of the organizations for international cooperation. With Trump, it is clear that he only wants to exercise such power without considering the consequences of it. With the trust towards US fading, in and out of West, a complimentary mechanism will be created. US will control/influence where its hard power can still reach, but not beyond.

Trump is an aberration and will likely be out of office in 2020, worst case 2024. No one is going to blow up old alliances because of Trump. Every foreign capital is just trying to ride out the storm.

Every foreign capital is just trying to ride out the storm.

True, but they're also starting to think seriously about building storm shelters for the next time a storm blows through.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#119

Post by plopilop »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #108
Yptur wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps significantly stronger. The UK was historically the naysayer of the EU, opposing more integration. Now the strongest Economies are Germany and France which are both very much in favor of a closer EU. If this leads to the EU being quicker in decision making and pooling more of their resources it could mean a big boon to the EU. On the other hand the UK used to be kind of a watchdog of the EU so that role mi…

Given the unpopularity and utter ineptitude of the UK's brexit "negotiations" I'm tempted to say might be in the process of leaving. They're making such a mess, I would not be the least surprised to see the DUP withdraw support and a surprise election result. The Labour conference seems to be moving them towards a second referendum. 18 months ago I thought claims "it might not happen" foolish, now I'm starting to thi…

They are in the process of leaving. They activated article 50, which automatically starts a process of departure lasting 24 months. This period can only be prolonged by unanimity vote, I'm not even sure it can be cancelled. Concerning the prolongation, not going to happen.

Also there's no way the rest of EU is going to accept for UK to stay in the EU with the same privileges as previously (non use of euro, tax exemptions...). Especially since UK was one of the most critical members, now EU has more incentive to move forward.

Personally I can't see how UK can rejoin the EU without applying from scratch like Serbia and so on.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#120

Post by quantummkv »

chvid wrote: post #65
chvid wrote: post #42

This article makes absolutely no sense. The EU chosing Iran over the US?! That is not what is going to happen over the reopened Iran deal. What is going to happen is that the EU will fall in line and Iran will be forced to withdraw its activities in Syria, Iraq, Yemen ... due to the severity of the economic hardship caused by the sanctions.

Whoa. Downvotes ... As if world power had something to do with technicalities, IT-systems, which currency to transact in. Sorry guys. This is not how the world works. The USD is dominant currency not because of the lack of alternatives. The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude. As long as that is the case it means the EU can get only token independence. Ulti…

You know the brits used to have such delusions back in the day. Look where they are at now.

>The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude.

Wrong. The USD was dominant currency because USA was the only major country untouched by WW2. Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. It is the dominant currency today because everyone is lazy to change the status quo as long it is working.

If USA upsets the status quo it will be replaced. Just ask your cousins across the Atlantic how that works.

P.S. your armed superiority is a joke. You were unable to defeat a bunch of untrained rice farmers. Your only armed victories in the last 50 years were against civilian militias. Any serious war with the standing armies of Russia, China or India will get you creamed. The only reason you are tolerated is because no one wants to be the one to start a war.

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