Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. I am a lawyer, licensed in 4 states (among other bars) :) 2. I grew up in NJ and am quite familiar with the gambling regs (but i admit to not having paid attention in the past few years) 3. I checked with other NJ lawyers.
I am not a lawyer. I grew up in NJ but I'm more familiar with the policies of Nevada gambling firms. But, I have a perhaps-unreasonable amount of confidence in my understanding of regulator-regulatee dynamics. I further think FanDuel competently understood their legal environment before making their statements defending the non-payment to the press. (If their experts knew they'd eventually have to pay anyway, why tak…
I also lived and worked in DC for 10 years :-)
I'm just not gonna bet or gamble here[1]. I expressed an opinion. I stand by that opinion. I will note you twisted it a little bit. I also gave what FanDuel's strongest argument will be, and I expect if they do win, it will be on those grounds.
But i do think you are very mistaken about at least one thing:
"I further think FanDuel competently understood their legal environment before making their statements defending the non-payment to the press. (If their experts knew they'd eventually have to pay anyway, why take the PR hit?)"
Because there is no meaningful PR hit - gamblers are not going to stop using it either way.
I also strongly doubt they "completely understood their legal environment" before making that statement, because pretty much no companies fanduel's size do so. You are suggesting a level of organized legal process that is uncommon. :)
[1] There are also too many paths where fanduel loses but the bettor does not get anything meaningful, or the question doesn't get decided because the person runs out of money or their lawyer sucks.