China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling • Hacker News Board

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#381

Post by pathseeker » Thu, Sep 20, 2018, 6:57 PM UTC

nkoren wrote: post #187

pathseeker wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This entire statement is predicated on STEM graduates being a proxy, but you provide no evidence that's the case. Building complex market ecosystems has very little to do with supply of STEM graduates. Having some supply is certainly a prerequisite, but there is no indication that the current supply rate is the prerequisite. I suggest you read the mythical man month, it illustrates the fallacious thinking behind thro…

I've read the Mythical Man Month, and it has no bearing on what I'm talking about here. The problem is that "building Shenzhen" isn't a "project", and never can be a "project". The key feature of an industrial ecosystem like this is its enormous diversity -- hundreds of thousands of companies, large and small, doing complementary and competitive and most importantly different things. That is not something that can ev…

>The key feature of an industrial ecosystem like this is its enormous diversity

A bunch of engineers all graduating from the same Chinese school system under the same censorship regime != "diversity".

>and most importantly different things.

Some are doing different things, but that has nothing to do with the number of STEM graduates. Your incorrect presumption here is that a STEM graduate is magically innovative and entrepreneurial, which there is no evidence of.

>STEM graduates is, as I say, a poor proxy, but I can't think of a better one.

So don't use it at all. If STEM graduates were enough, why do you think that China hasn't displaced Silicon Valley in the software game?

>Feel free to suggest.

Incentives, market conditions, and government support. In other words, stuff that can only partially be controlled. Silicon Valley is a direct product of research into military technology driven by the Cold War. No number of STEM graduates can replicate that.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#382

Post by white-flame » Thu, Sep 20, 2018, 8:21 PM UTC

pathseeker wrote: post #380

white-flame wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The allowance for copyright law to exist in the USA is "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts"; with a similar intent to patents to eventually bring more quality things into the public domain. So yes, anything outside of that, regardless of invention of non-science/useful-arts, and regardless of profitability, is fair game. Any other enforcements and punishments are overreaches by government on behalf of…

> The allowance for copyright law to exist in the USA is "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts"; with a similar intent to patents to eventually bring more quality things into the public domain. So yes, anything outside of that, regardless of invention of non-science/useful-arts, and regardless of profitability, is fair game. Can you give an example of what is outside of science and arts that you think i…

Not "arts", but "Useful Arts" which are things like industry skills & practices, a specific term from the time of writing.

An easy example would be the Happy Birthday song.

edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_arts

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#383

Post by simonh » Fri, Sep 21, 2018, 9:50 AM UTC

speedplane wrote: post #343

simonh wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it is reasonable, so do that. Pursue them through the WTO or talk to your allies about reforming the WTO if it isn't working to your satisfaction, or scrap the WTO and build something better. If you believe in a global free trade system then build one. The US isn't doing any of that. I have little to no sympathy for China, but I do believe in equitable free trade based on consensus, a common rulebook and in…

Trump and many of his predecessors have gone through the WTO and have very little to show for it. It takes years for any decision and by the time you get the result it’s far too late (see solar panels). Why should any country submit itself to a proven broken system?

The WTO dispute resolution system has actually been pretty effective[1]. It typically takes about 1-2 years, but usually complainants will impose interim measures themselves anyway.

This is just a smoke screen though. Suppose China does make a deal with the US and does agree various measures, what magical secret sauce does the US have to make sure they keep to them and don't violate agreements in the future? There will still need to be a dispute resolution system, a genuine open free trade system can't operate without one. The US policy right now is inimical to that - it's brazenly and explicitly stated to be partisan and based on economic strength rather than equitable free trade. Steel tariffs on close allies on 'national security' grounds? Really?

[1] https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/dispu_settl...

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#384

Post by abandonliberty » Sun, Sep 23, 2018, 1:15 AM UTC

dis-sys wrote: post #261

abandonliberty wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's blocking WeChat?

WeChat is not blocked, just like a long list of US internet services not blocked in China - Amazon, NH, booking.com, ebay, uber, airbnb, expedia and many more. That being said, Huawei and Alipay's expansion into the US has been repeatedly blocked by the US federal government [1]. By citing the same national security concerns, using such logic, Cisco and Microsoft should have long been banned in China - but they are n…

It seems like you undermined your own point here.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#385

Post by speedplane » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 9:11 AM UTC

simonh wrote: post #383

speedplane wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump and many of his predecessors have gone through the WTO and have very little to show for it. It takes years for any decision and by the time you get the result it’s far too late (see solar panels). Why should any country submit itself to a proven broken system?

The WTO dispute resolution system has actually been pretty effective[1]. It typically takes about 1-2 years, but usually complainants will impose interim measures themselves anyway. This is just a smoke screen though. Suppose China does make a deal with the US and does agree various measures, what magical secret sauce does the US have to make sure they keep to them and don't violate agreements in the future? There wi…

Yeah, the wto dispute resolution system is so fair that multinational corporations can no longer export pollution, weak worker safety protections, and fraudulent business practices to other countries. Everyone is on a level playing field. Or not.

Good dispute resolution systems are good. Bad ones provide the facade of justice and merely give credibility to those that have the power to commit injustice.