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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#351

Post by ksec »

Judgmentality wrote: post #349
enitihas wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well this certainly looks to set start another cold war. The US was not going be the only power for too long. And I think China is in a much better position than the USSR, at least economically. Let's see how this goes.

I'd have to go digging for the article, but one of the more interesting arguments I've heard for why the US won the Cold War is because of our superior manufacturing in-house. Similarly, think of China's advantage today in producing electronics and goods, and how they're so entrenched it's difficult for high security government projects to find parts that are considered safe. I think our slow decline in manufacturing…

I am not entirely convinced. At first I thought robotics were still a little far off in all industry ( Apart from Cars ), for many task, they are not as fast as a human worker, at least those in Foxconn who are now trained themselves to muscle memory speed. But now I believe Apple's Dasiy, the disassemble machine, are basically the testing phase of how to do iPhone assembly all by machines, and doing so quickly. Dasiy is already 4x faster than the original Liam, and I believe the threshold os robotics replacing manufacturing may reach a critical point where it makes sense to move back to US, and with ease.

I don't know when will we reach that critical points, as with everything in life, the last 20% always takes the same amount of time as the first 80%. But once it does, China is looking at a potential job lost of 5 - 50M or more.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#352

Post by lmpostor »

int_19h wrote: post #287
acomjean wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tim Cool spoke to that: " "There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and…

If it's truly a skill question alone, US could trivially resolve it by opening the borders to qualified Chinese engineers, until it gets a large enough quantity.

The difference is circumstances aren't forcing the Chinese educated elite to come elsewhere, like my parents, as opportunity exists in China. Even if the probability of success is worse, the question is if the disparity is great enough to outweigh leaving family, friends, and cultural ties behind? Plenty of grad and undergrads are coming to the USA, pit-stopping in the international student community for a few years before heading right back to China. The major bottleneck in China right now is higher level education as many are still compiling resources after getting totally fucked by the government in the Cultural Revolution only 2 generations ago. This is being rapidly solved as the initial generations post Cultural Revolution reach maturity and we will see this differential close in this next generation. My observation is concurrent with the fact that Asian immigration has been significantly slowing both in raw numbers and % wise within the last 10 years, China doesn't have to beat the West, it just has to get close enough.

Trivially asserts that it will be done immediately/soon, which will never happen.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#353

Post by learc83 »

cuboidGoat wrote: post #342
learc83 wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

92% of the US speaks English proficiently and 80% primarily. Cultural differences across the US are miniscule compared to the differences between EU countries. Turn on a TV in NYC and in North Dakota, the vast majority of the content is exactly the same. The only differences are local news and advertising for local businesses. Turn on a TV in France and Poland for comparison.

>Cultural differences across the US are miniscule compared to the differences between EU countries. Linguistically and culturally, the US has massive differences within it. And the fact that the media landscape does not reflect the breadth of cultures within the USA, has been a point of contention for a very long time.

>Linguistically and culturally, the US has massive differences within it.

Culturally: Compared to a small European country--yes. Compared to the EU-- not at all.

Linguistically: 92% of the US speaks English. Within that group, dialectical differences are relatively small even compared with much smaller countries like the UK.

African American vernacular english is the only major dialect that is different enough to really impact communication, and even then, the majority of African Americans (and speakers of other smaller regional dialects) can easily understand the prestige dialect.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#354

Post by justicezyx »

taobility wrote: post #185
beamatronic wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a dramatic price impact in the context of Apple products. 5%? 10%? Would that really stop you? They keep hiking the prices anyway.

for iPhone, maybe it's just 10%, what about the other staff you need to buy daily? Do you count how many staff you using are Made In China right now?

There is no absolute standard of low-tech and high-tech.

The question is how replaceable. That is indirect relevant to iPhone or any small sample of particular items.

The point is, overall, how replaceable is China? How is China ranked on the replaceable country list?

I cannot see any evidences that China will be ranked below top3 (US China EU) in the world's least replaceable country when cutting from global trade.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#355

Post by Judgmentality »

ksec wrote: post #351
Judgmentality wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd have to go digging for the article, but one of the more interesting arguments I've heard for why the US won the Cold War is because of our superior manufacturing in-house. Similarly, think of China's advantage today in producing electronics and goods, and how they're so entrenched it's difficult for high security government projects to find parts that are considered safe. I think our slow decline in manufacturing…

I am not entirely convinced. At first I thought robotics were still a little far off in all industry ( Apart from Cars ), for many task, they are not as fast as a human worker, at least those in Foxconn who are now trained themselves to muscle memory speed. But now I believe Apple's Dasiy, the disassemble machine, are basically the testing phase of how to do iPhone assembly all by machines, and doing so quickly. Dasi…

You're thinking at the assembly plant level (which I do not completely agree with), but think about it at the chip level. How often do you hear stories of Chinese spyware being discovered in electronics? The real question is how much more widespread is it than we realize because of all the spyware we haven't found yet.

Apart from that, I'd argue supply chain logistics for raw materials is better for China after years of investing in Africa.

Although honestly as I type this, I'm realizing just how little I know, so I could be persuaded otherwise. But to me it just feels like America's time in the sunlight is coming to an end.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#356

Post by SubiculumCode »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #46
lgleason wrote: post #36

As much as some people here may hate Trump, the fact is that he was right when we said that it is difficult for us to lose a trade war with China since we import more from them than we export. Is there going to be some short term pain? Absolutely! But, long term it is likely to create more jobs in the US. As an extra bonus, there won't be as much of a carbon footprint for shipping things half way around the world and…

His trade war with China (and only China) is one of the few administration's positions I whole wholeheartedly support (as a economics dilettante, no expert).

Some ass is downvoting all comments critical of China.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#357

Post by SubiculumCode »

15155 wrote: post #142
macintux wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system. I think 2016 proved that the electoral college is not supplying the adult oversight that the founders intended.

The electoral college and winner-take-all are mutually exclusive ideas. Presently, the electoral college benefits rural voters (Wyoming and the like) by increasing vote value. Winner-take-all elections benefit urban voters by disenfranchising rural voters (every non-Democrat county in California).

There are democrats in Wyoming also, and the system disenfranchises them also in dominantly rural states.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#358

Post by greedo »

salimmadjd wrote: post #314
gonvaled wrote: post #74

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

>And we have not yet started talking about the weaponizing of the dollar, which can be recently seen in the conflict with Iran. Not just with Iran, but everywhere. Most people do not realize the monopoly of USD in banking transactions. Essentially US can pass laws or even through executive order control the economic and trade policy of other countries. Turkey and India are barred from buying Russian equipments. This…

How is India barred from buying Russian equipment? Russia is one of the largest suppliers of military equipment to India...

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#359

Post by cuboidGoat »

learc83 wrote: post #353
cuboidGoat wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Cultural differences across the US are miniscule compared to the differences between EU countries. Linguistically and culturally, the US has massive differences within it. And the fact that the media landscape does not reflect the breadth of cultures within the USA, has been a point of contention for a very long time.

>Linguistically and culturally, the US has massive differences within it. Culturally: Compared to a small European country--yes. Compared to the EU-- not at all. Linguistically: 92% of the US speaks English. Within that group, dialectical differences are relatively small even compared with much smaller countries like the UK. African American vernacular english is the only major dialect that is different enough to rea…

Although many of them are only represented by relatively small populations, the US has a much wider range of languages and language groups than Europe, as it has the languages brought from Europe, the creole languages from the slave trade, as well as the remaining native languages.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#360

Post by toasterlovin »

janekm wrote: post #174
toasterlovin wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't fully through this through, but at a naive level it seems to me like the U.S. has the upper hand. Less trade between the two countries means U.S. consumers pay higher prices on non-essential items. But the impact on the Chinese is much more significant: people will lose jobs.

Thinking it through: The vast majority of goods imported from China are sold to US consumers by American companies, employing Americans. A 25% increase in cost of goods sold for these companies requires severe cost cutting, leading to the lay-offs of those American employees.

But, again, a disproportionate impact. It takes way less people to administer buying and selling goods than it does to staff the factory floor.
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