Live data from Hacker News

China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

141–150 of 385 posts

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#141
post #114
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would need to implement tarrifs of several hundred percent to make a difference. A 20% tariff China can just make a small change to the price of their currency and ride it out. An article today has a quote from Jack Ma that he thinks this trade war will last 20 years. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/alibaba-stoc...

It can't last that long. Eventually the disputes will reach a WTO tribunal, at which point both sides will either need to acquiesce, or risk going it alone outside the WTO system, or perhaps destroy the WTO altogether. U.S. conservatives love bilateral trade deals, but that's only because most trade occurs through the WTO system, making bilateral negotiations tractable. If either the U.S. or China lost the benefit of…

> It can't last that long. Eventually the disputes will reach a WTO tribunal, at which point both sides will either need to acquiesce, or risk going it alone outside the WTO system, or perhaps destroy the WTO altogether.

It probably can last that long. It will take years for a WTO tribunal to do its work, and even after the tribunal makes its ruling, there can be years more of foot-dragging. I can see all of that taking at least a decade.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point number two has been preoccupying my brain the last few months. Our system of electing presidents tend to hinge on several swing states, and in those states, a few key districts, and this means that our elections are vulnerable to foreign influence much more so than if, say, presidents were elected by popular vote. Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system.

> Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system. I think 2016 proved that the electoral college is not supplying the adult oversight that the founders intended.

The electoral college and winner-take-all are mutually exclusive ideas.

Presently, the electoral college benefits rural voters (Wyoming and the like) by increasing vote value. Winner-take-all elections benefit urban voters by disenfranchising rural voters (every non-Democrat county in California).

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#143
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump could easily destory the wto or declare it irrelevant to the us. Similar to his reaction to the icj.

Every president has declared the ICJ irrelevant. The Pentagon would send tanks to the White House if a President so much as hinted at accepting ICJ jurisdiction. And in any event, the U.S. doesn't dispute the usefulness of the ICJ or its jurisdiction over other countries, it just disputes the usefulness of the U.S. being subject to ICJ jurisdiction. By contrast, the WTO deeply matters to the wealth and security of th…

> Every president has declared the ICJ irrelevant. The Pentagon would send tanks to the White House if a President so much as hinted at accepting ICJ jurisdiction.

Are you seriously claiming there would be a military coup in the US over something like that? The US has very strong taboos against military intervention in politics, much stronger than exist in many other countries. That you would make such a claim calls into question much that you've said about the US.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#144
One of the things that seems the most unfair to me about global trade is that for many American internet companies, China just totally bans them. Everything from Facebook and Google to smaller players gets hit by the great firewall. That is way more impactful than a tariff of 5% or 25%. With all of the talk of how China is or is not playing fair, I feel like their internet bans get taken for granted, and I wish there was more pressure to play fairly there.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#145
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like which IP policy? Any specific policy document that you can point out? China has been having IP laws and protection since around 1980, and China government never said once that stealing IP is okay. It is IP law execution and enforcement in China that is sub-par. Policing is sometimes hard. Also, I believe the US really wants to treat IP as an "asset" rather than a "product".

China has actively promoted and condoned IP theft as a way of catching up to the US. I'm surprised you're unaware of the widespread coordinated Chinese industrial espionage, especially by Chinese students studying abroad in America. The IP laws and protections in China exist primarily so they can claim they're following the rules.

Sounds like they are mirroring the behaviour of the US toward Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries.

>Last month, Attorney General Eric Holder announced that the United States was charging members of the Chinese military with economic espionage. Stealing trade secrets from American companies, he said, enabled China to “illegally sabotage” foreign competitors and propel its own companies to “success in the international marketplace.” The United States should know. That’s pretty much how we got our start as a manufacturing power, too.

>The United States emerged as the world’s industrial leader by illicitly appropriating mechanical and scientific innovations from Europe,” the historian Doron Ben-Atar observes in his book “Trade Secrets.” Throughout the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, American industrial spies roamed the British Isles, seeking not just new machines but skilled workers who could run and maintain those machines. One of these artisans was Samuel Slater, often called “the father of the American industrial revolution.” He emigrated here in 1789, posing as a farmhand and bringing with him an intimate knowledge of the Arkwright spinning frames that had transformed textile production in England, and he set up the first water-powered textile mill in the U.S. Two decades later, the American businessman Francis Cabot Lowell talked his way into a number of British mills, and memorized the plans to the Cartwright power loom. When he returned home, he built his own version of the loom, and became the most successful industrialist of his time.

>The American government often encouraged such piracy. Alexander Hamilton, in his 1791 “Report on Manufactures,” called on the country to reward those who brought us “improvements and secrets of extraordinary value” from elsewhere. State governments financed the importation of smuggled machines. And although federal patents were supposed to be granted only to people who came up with original inventions, Ben-Atar shows that, in practice, Americans were receiving patents for technology pirated from abroad.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/06/09/spy-vs-spy-3

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#146
post #4

Some hard-liners want a more aggressive stance. Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position. If anyth…

I think the path to get us there (reshoring chips) would be extremely painful, but it certainly would be a better position for the United States to restore our ability to produce these critical components. Also, just in time for this research to get off the ground: > If it all works out, the effect could be to make small groups of engineers capable of feats that would take 100 engineers to achieve today. https://spec…

few companies build chips in china, the most important role it plays in most electronic's company supply lines is assembly/PCB work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat...

Note virtually all of the chinese plants in that list are nowhere near cutting edge process node sizes

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#147
post #135

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

I have no idea how likely that is, but that looks like an ideal scenario for the White House, and a possible existential threat for the Chinese Communist Party. People have a habit of putting up with a lot when the economy is growing dramatically and their lives are noticeably improving, but they might not be so happy with an increasingly oppressive government and a struggling economy that isn't giving any sign of fu…

Ya, the CCP has also taken a paternal-like responsibility for much of the economy, making guarantees about future positive economic performance and creating a lot of moral hazard in the process. This is why they are trying to avoid even a recession at all costs, or a property market bust.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a commonly espoused narrative. I’m sure there were synergies in steel and auto production in US cities connected by rail between Pennsylvania and Michigan. I’d say the key misunderstanding is that you’re conflating China with “markets” in “it took China roughly two decades to build this kind of ecosystem.” If you read it as, “Markets took two decades to build this kind of ecosystem,” it should be clear that t…

The Shenzhen special sauce is the high density of complimentary industries and specialized workforce. It's certainly possible to replicate, but history has shown that it can be difficult. It would be like trying to supplant Hollywood.

SZ's special sauce used to just be its proximity to Hong Kong. To think that the role SZ plays has changed so completely in less than 30 years is evidence that it might not be that difficult to replicate.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won’t lose more than China does, but we’re still going to lose a fair amount of wealth and standard of living.

How so? As it is the only people who's standard of living has been rising in the past 30 years has been those at the top while the middle class etc. continue to lose ground.

That is true in the US, but worldwide, the drop in poverty has been immense over the past few decades. In 1966, half of the world lived in extreme poverty. As of 2017, that number is now 9%. 9%!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/apr/11/...

This does not remove the real problems we have in the states regarding wealth distribution. But globally, things are pretty amazing compared to how they've been, even within a single lifetime.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#150

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

> 5.) China will have to target US farmers with tariffs,

If that raises food prices, that could destabilize society or employees might ask for raises to compensate for higher food costs which firms might pressure the government to do away with tariffs on foods.

In the mid-19th century, political economist David Ricardo joined Parliament to (successfully) remove the "Corn Laws" which were tariffs on all grains imported. Workers were complaining about the high cost of foods asking for raises which pressured the profits of firms.

Post reply on HN