Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 385 posts

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#131

Post by NathanCH »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #128

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

It's interesting because you can replace "China" with "The United States" and most of those bullet points are still true.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#132

Post by erikpukinskis »

lgleason wrote: post #96
philwelch wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won’t lose more than China does, but we’re still going to lose a fair amount of wealth and standard of living.

How so? As it is the only people who's standard of living has been rising in the past 30 years has been those at the top while the middle class etc. continue to lose ground.

People will have to wait 2 years instead of 18 months to afford a new iPhone.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#133

Post by 1024core »

China should just levy heavy duties on goods from states Trump won big, and the states where Republicans are in peril; while at the same time offering concessions to goods from states where Trump lost and Democrats are doing well.

Then it should start an advertising blitz to highlight how workers/farmers in the former states are suffering.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#134

Post by joefranklinsrs »

ElBarto wrote: post #97

Time is on China's side. The US can throw a tantrum all they want. They should play a long game. There is no benefit for them in retaliating to hurt the US as long as it does not cause issues in domestic politics. They should focus on not getting hurt too much and let time do the rest.

I would argue time is (and always has been) on US's side. US has the more powerful economy, and the consumer market that China desperately needs to keep afloat. In addition, time will allow US companies to move its supply lines out of China without triggering volatility in its stock prices.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#135

Post by 07d046 »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #128

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

I have no idea how likely that is, but that looks like an ideal scenario for the White House, and a possible existential threat for the Chinese Communist Party. People have a habit of putting up with a lot when the economy is growing dramatically and their lives are noticeably improving, but they might not be so happy with an increasingly oppressive government and a struggling economy that isn't giving any sign of future greatness.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#136

Post by piyh »

lgleason wrote: post #96
philwelch wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won’t lose more than China does, but we’re still going to lose a fair amount of wealth and standard of living.

How so? As it is the only people who's standard of living has been rising in the past 30 years has been those at the top while the middle class etc. continue to lose ground.

Rising cost of goods.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#137

Post by piyh »

tabtab wrote: post #34

It's a game of chicken. T is okay with the unpredictability of that game, for he thrives on, well, let's say "activity". China's gov't is, on the other hand, more conservative and cautious by nature. They must feel really rattled. (I'm not picking a winner yet.)

In game theory chicken the unpredictable one wins more often, as long as they don't self destruct.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#138

Post by sergiotapia »

gonvaled wrote: post #74

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

Of course US citizens want a president that looks out for US interests. To think otherwise is laughable and naive. I want the president to fight for us!

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#139

Post by 394549 »

mywittyname wrote: post #129
doctorpangloss wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a commonly espoused narrative. I’m sure there were synergies in steel and auto production in US cities connected by rail between Pennsylvania and Michigan. I’d say the key misunderstanding is that you’re conflating China with “markets” in “it took China roughly two decades to build this kind of ecosystem.” If you read it as, “Markets took two decades to build this kind of ecosystem,” it should be clear that t…

The Shenzhen special sauce is the high density of complimentary industries and specialized workforce. It's certainly possible to replicate, but history has shown that it can be difficult. It would be like trying to supplant Hollywood.

> The Shenzhen special sauce is the high density of complimentary industries and specialized workforce.

> It's certainly possible to replicate, but history has shown that it can be difficult. It would be like trying to supplant Hollywood.

There's now motivation to take on that difficult job, and the motivation grows the longer the trade war drags on.

Companies may even rediscover the benefits of diversification. Right now Shenzhen is unique, but I'm sure there'd be much less anxiety right now if there was a Shenzhen II in Vietnam, Mexico, or even the US where production could be shifted too in times of crisis.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#140

Post by mywittyname »

lgleason wrote: post #93
kasey_junk wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This requires trade to be zero sum. It’s not. Even if we “win” the trade war we can lose if not having done it at all was better.

Honest question, how would we lose in that scenario?

There are a few scenarios. One would be Chinese companies are forced to get more efficient to survive. This makes them even more competitive and they can force out American companies in other contested regions.

Another is the inflation caused by the tariffs reducing the profits of industries that compete for the same consumer dollars. If consumers are paying more for plastic goods, then they have less money to spend on discretionary purchases.

Production moving from China to the US puts strain an already tight labor market, which displaces incumbent industries. I.e., shoe manufactures move to the US to avoid tariffs, which makes labor too expensive for the cardboard industry, who moves to another region.

All of these effects cascade to related industries.

Also, the collective "we" can win even if a large number of us suffer as a result of these policies.

Post reply on HN