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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#41

Post by oh-kumudo »

enitihas wrote: post #12

I initially used to think China might have more leverage against any potential trade war agains the US, as: 1. The Chinese had option of imposing high tariffs on politically significant US agricultural products, like soyabean, which are not very large in $ value, but affect a lot of areas. 2. Since some swing states are highly influential in US elections, the Chinese always had the option of imposing tariffs which im…

Well for both countries the export to each other is only a fraction of their economy...China is not what it is used to be.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#42

Post by enitihas »

justicezyx wrote: post #31
adventured wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would no doubt be disruptive, temporarily. And it would also prompt a multi hundred billion dollar redirection of investment into moving those supply lines to other countries. Vietnam would love to get some more of China's tech manufacturing action, as would a dozen other developing countries. Others would welcome gains to be had in apparel or autos by moves like that by China. One of the biggest problems China ha…

> One of the biggest problems China has in this trade war: they're entirely replaceable. They offer nothing strictly unique that can't be replaced by another country, even though there may be a serious cost involved. I cannot see evidences that China is particularly more so than any other country.

Correct. Even if their large industrial integration of all sorts of parts in close proximity was easily replaceable(which is itself very difficult), for them to be easily replaceable, buyers would have to be more price indifferent, which doesn't seem to be happening.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#43

Post by makomk »

enitihas wrote: post #12

I initially used to think China might have more leverage against any potential trade war agains the US, as: 1. The Chinese had option of imposing high tariffs on politically significant US agricultural products, like soyabean, which are not very large in $ value, but affect a lot of areas. 2. Since some swing states are highly influential in US elections, the Chinese always had the option of imposing tariffs which im…

Based on the figures I could find, China imported $130 billion dollars worth of goods from America last year, of which $12.3 billion was soya beans. The most likely reason they imposed high tariffs on soya beans is precisely because they had so few actual options. (I know the media portrayed it as some kind of genius move at the time, but that's been looking increasingly dubious. It's not clear that they will be able to feed their livestock at reasonable prices.)

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#44

Post by hourislate »

tambourine_man wrote: post #35
adventured wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would no doubt be disruptive, temporarily. And it would also prompt a multi hundred billion dollar redirection of investment into moving those supply lines to other countries. Vietnam would love to get some more of China's tech manufacturing action, as would a dozen other developing countries. Others would welcome gains to be had in apparel or autos by moves like that by China. One of the biggest problems China ha…

I’m not sure. Tim Cook seemed to suggest the iPhone couldn’t be manufactured anywhere else.

China sources most of the components for Apple Products from different countries.

Here is a list of countries that provide the parts.

https://www.quora.com/Where-is-the-iPhone-originally-made

As you can see it would be fairly easy to for Apple/Foxconn to source these parts and build their products in the USA. I think the big motivator for them is they would rather outsource manufacturing to Foxconn and wash their hands of having to deal with it.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#45

Post by tabtab »

pastor_elm wrote: post #27

Donald Trump was right about one crucial thing. The leaders of most other nations just don't have any backbone.

Don't forget, "an eye-for-an-eye leaves everybody blind". The Dale Carnegie approach to dispute resolution usually works better than the Yosemite Sam approach by my observation. I'm reluctant to bet on Sam. Hopefully this is a new and improved Sam.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#46

Post by SubiculumCode »

lgleason wrote: post #36

As much as some people here may hate Trump, the fact is that he was right when we said that it is difficult for us to lose a trade war with China since we import more from them than we export. Is there going to be some short term pain? Absolutely! But, long term it is likely to create more jobs in the US. As an extra bonus, there won't be as much of a carbon footprint for shipping things half way around the world and…

His trade war with China (and only China) is one of the few administration's positions I whole wholeheartedly support (as a economics dilettante, no expert).

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#47

Post by stephen-mw »

apo wrote: post #4

Some hard-liners want a more aggressive stance. Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position. If anyth…

I think the path to get us there (reshoring chips) would be extremely painful, but it certainly would be a better position for the United States to restore our ability to produce these critical components.

Also, just in time for this research to get off the ground:

>If it all works out, the effect could be to make small groups of engineers capable of feats that would take 100 engineers to achieve today.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/hardware/darpa...

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#48

Post by mc32 »

tambourine_man wrote: post #35
adventured wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would no doubt be disruptive, temporarily. And it would also prompt a multi hundred billion dollar redirection of investment into moving those supply lines to other countries. Vietnam would love to get some more of China's tech manufacturing action, as would a dozen other developing countries. Others would welcome gains to be had in apparel or autos by moves like that by China. One of the biggest problems China ha…

I’m not sure. Tim Cook seemed to suggest the iPhone couldn’t be manufactured anywhere else.

Tim Cook has a business reason to make such a suggestion. He doesn’t want disruption; he wants an affordable and reliable workforce and does not want to abandon his investment in technology, capital, supply chain, etc.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#49

Post by kasey_junk »

Retric wrote: post #39
justicezyx wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of the biggest problems China has in this trade war: they're entirely replaceable. They offer nothing strictly unique that can't be replaced by another country, even though there may be a serious cost involved. I cannot see evidences that China is particularly more so than any other country.

Saudi Oil is a commodity, but many country’s don’t have oil. Every country has low skilled workers.

Low skilled workers doesn’t accurately describe what China brings to the table currently. They effectively are the only place in the world you can source certain parts of the electronic supply chain at the volume currently necessary. They’ve been up the technical ladder for decades at the same time as other places have shed that capability. It would take a long time for Vietnam to come online. I’d guess Korea or Japan would be closest and that would have dramatic price impact.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#50

Post by SubiculumCode »

cthalupa wrote: post #3

>Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them. Well, this is actually the fundamental problem, isn't it? There's no way actual trade evens out, so tariffs are the only real outcome here. Even if we "win", it's not actually winning.

China's good can be produced in other developing countries, like Vietnam. Inflation might not result, or just be temporary.
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