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Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

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Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#131

Post by Retra »

smileysteve wrote: post #52
athenot wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

> hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? I'd say that's pretty calculable, and has a solution, slow down to a speed that the tires can shed water. Perhaps most telling about your qualification is the misplaced risk; the light precipitation with a little oil slick is likely more dangerous, mostly because you don't slow down for i…

Yes, it is trivial to calculate how to respond to known hazards. What is hard to calculate is what the hazards actually are in any given situation. Humans don't merely look at the road and compute how much standing water is there, they have prior experiences and a sense of what other drivers are doing on the road and why they are doing those things.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#133

Post by Retra »

xapata wrote: post #111
Niten wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like you've never lived in the southeast US? These conditions can occur on a daily basis in the summer, especially in Florida. "Pull over and stop" isn't realistic advice here. Humans can and do drive safely in these conditions, however, and it's a valid concern to point out that Waymo's West Coast-centric models might not yet be trained to handle these cases. (To be clear, I don't doubt that machines will…

> safely I've seen people do all sorts of foolish things. When the rain is so hard that I can't see more than 15 feet, I pull over and stop.

How does a car know it can't see well?

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#134

Post by nradov »

hef19898 wrote: post #123
gwern wrote: post #14

> Waymo, widely seen as leading the self-driving vanguard, says it has made progress teaching its software to better filter out “noise” from precipitation. The last Waymo leak claims that it is more than just 'progress', but that 'rain is solved', incidentally: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/09/14/waymo-plan...

I'm by no means an expert for self driving cars or auto-pilots, so take it is just my personal impression. It seems that developers for self driving cars are dealing with a very different, and in some ways more difficult, environment than aircraft auto-pilots. While cars only have to deal with two dimensions instead of three and cars are still less complex machines compared to planes there are a lot more challenges.…

Dealing with failures is far more complex for aircraft. When a car gets a flat tire or suffers an engine failure the driver can just pull over and stop. But an autonomous aircraft carrying passengers or flying over populated areas would have to cope with broken sensors, uncontained engine failures, loss of cabin pressure, stuck control surfaces, etc.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#135

Post by krolley »

amluto wrote: post #114
gwern wrote: post #14

> Waymo, widely seen as leading the self-driving vanguard, says it has made progress teaching its software to better filter out “noise” from precipitation. The last Waymo leak claims that it is more than just 'progress', but that 'rain is solved', incidentally: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/09/14/waymo-plan...

From that article: > Also snow seems to be solvable, as there will probably similar patterns that the sensors get in their signals. Real snow is not just a software problem. Fancy rear facing sensors near bumper? I hope they function through a couple inches of frozen muddy spray. Front windshield? Sometimes needs scraping. Lidar on roof? Does it work through the big heap of snow on it?

As it is now, sometimes ice needs to be scraped off the windshield before you can drive. It may be the same with the cars external sensors.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#136

Post by Retra »

throwawayjava wrote: post #28
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

Some basic knowledge of traction and momentum go a long way. Your car will generally go the way it is heading, as far as it can slide. Every time I see people lose control in the snow and ice, it is because they're driving with their brakes and not their momentum.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#137

Post by [deleted] »

Itsdijital wrote: post #77
hanoz wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As LIDAR's pièce de résistance to date has been its ability to "see through" forest canopies to the terrain below, I don't understand how rain or snow should present an unsurmountable obstacle to seeing the road ahead.

Trees don't refract and reflect light.

[deleted]

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#138

Post by edejong »

hef19898 wrote: post #122
sna1l wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/08/29/waymos-sel... Surprising that Waymo has figured out rain but not things like left turns. Different problem spaces I'd imagine, but still surprising.

Can that be that in US cities there is not trmendous amount of left turns? At least that was the rwason I heard why the Amazon Logistocs routes in Europe were planned without any left turns driving everybody crazy and adding a lot of wasted time.

The reason Amazon plans like that is because it is faster. Left turns with traffic lights have a higher average waiting time. Also, the route can have left turns, they just have a much higher penalty.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#139

Post by toast0 »

hef19898 wrote: post #122
sna1l wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/08/29/waymos-sel... Surprising that Waymo has figured out rain but not things like left turns. Different problem spaces I'd imagine, but still surprising.

Can that be that in US cities there is not trmendous amount of left turns? At least that was the rwason I heard why the Amazon Logistocs routes in Europe were planned without any left turns driving everybody crazy and adding a lot of wasted time.

US cities have plenty of left turns, except for in new jersey where they're frowned upon. However, there can be a long wait to turn left, depending on conditions, so it might not be more time to drive a bit farther but turn right more often.

The waymo cars have trouble with getting hit while making unprotected left turns because they drive very cautiously. Except for the time they hit a bus, because they somehow thought a bus would swerve to avoid them (although the then Google vehicle was being overly cautious and trying to avoid an inconsequential object in the road). All in all, I would rather the waymo style of overcaution and immobility than the Uber style of over confidence and ignoring of potential obstacles. However, I would currently still prefer mediocre to average human drivers on the road with me over a waymo.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#140

Post by hef19898 »

nradov wrote: post #134
hef19898 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm by no means an expert for self driving cars or auto-pilots, so take it is just my personal impression. It seems that developers for self driving cars are dealing with a very different, and in some ways more difficult, environment than aircraft auto-pilots. While cars only have to deal with two dimensions instead of three and cars are still less complex machines compared to planes there are a lot more challenges.…

Dealing with failures is far more complex for aircraft. When a car gets a flat tire or suffers an engine failure the driver can just pull over and stop. But an autonomous aircraft carrying passengers or flying over populated areas would have to cope with broken sensors, uncontained engine failures, loss of cabin pressure, stuck control surfaces, etc.

Sure, thing is these issues are extremely rare (and not just over populated areas) And that is why you still have pilots, and redundant systems, so yes as a system an aircraft is a lot more complex. The traffic environment is not, the high level of control of air traffic and its standardization is making sure of that. And the latter is making i easier for aircraft because they have to deal with a lot less randomness.

So, I could imagine developers of self-driving cars could learn a thing or two from aerospace. But that is just my opinion.

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