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Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

bloomberg.com

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Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#91

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

njarboe wrote: post #37
seibelj wrote: post #19

I’ve taken downvotes from HN optimists for years about self driving cars. The slightest bit of criticism would have comments calling me an idiot 20 different ways. Then a single dead pedestrian changes all the news articles and the opinions change. We are a very, very long way away from self driving taxi cabs. What a total PR scam that was - but it did help valuations.

In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though. How many deaths per year would be acceptable? Like you mention, in the US, it seems that zero deaths per year, similar to commercial aviation, would be required. It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deploy…

>> On the other hand, I'm sure people in India or China will be happy to build and deploy them with much higher failure rates.

You might have seen this internet classic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM [India Driving]

Driving in India is notoriously chaotic and if self-driving cars are ever deployed there in our lifetime, they will come with a safety guarantee about equal to a car driven by a blind dog with a missing paw. It would be impossible to safely navigate the streets there with anything less situationaly aware than a fully developed adult human brain.

The article above makes it sound like weather is the big problem for self-driving cars and once that's solved- wooohoo, we're on our way! It's far from that. Self-driving car AI is still incapable of reasoning about its environment, neither does it have any "undersanding" of it in any way, shape or form. Consequently it only works in very limited environments, in very limited conditions - of traffic, visibility, road quality etc.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#92

Post by heartbreak »

njarboe wrote: post #30
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

Or most people. If it is actually blizzard conditions, one should have a very serious reason to be on the road. If not, stay at home instead of driving. Snow days are called for schools. Maybe work in general also?

The temp doesn't rise above freezing in Minneapolis for 3 straight months of the year. There is snow on the roadways for at least 1/3 of the year. Your solution is that no one in Minneapolis should drive from November through March.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#93

Post by foobandit »

mdhen wrote: post #54
athenot wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

These are daily occurrences in parts of TX and FL in the summer, and people generally do drive through them.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#94

Post by mikejb »

manfredo wrote: post #70
mortehu wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet electronic stability control[1] works far better than human control on snow, wet roads, or ice. If you don't believe it, try an obstacle course on an ice track with and without it sometime (a required part of driver's ed in Norway). Example: https://youtu.be/hd5JMQr4qe0?t=56s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control

Stability and traction control is not the same as a self driving car. Keeping wheels from locking, and keeping cars from sliding is largely a solved problem. I think the previous poster was more about referencing recognition of patches of ice ahead and slowing down preemptively. This is a big issue in places with bridges, since ice can form on bridges but not the rest of the roads (since bridges aren't kept warm by t…

I'd argue that Self-driving cars are better capable of recognizing ice patches. They don't just rely on visible light to see the ice, but have a more diverse sensor array.

The challenge there of course is having the car learn to interpret the input of these sensors. But that doesn't seem like a unpassable hurdle. On the contrary, it would be pretty high on the list of things to tackle when aiming for driving in snowy weather.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#95

Post by loeg »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #47
loeg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, many of them didn't. Highway deaths have come down a lot since the invention of ABS.

People not driving drunk less and wearing seat belts more has a heck of a lot more do with it.

I don't disagree. Tons of factors contribute to gradually making highways safer over time.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#96

Post by golemiprague »

I think self driving cars should be used on dedicated roads as a more agile and flexible replacement to trains. There are many places in the world where they need to build new train lines. What if instead they just build a dedicated road with self driving cars roaming it and just stopping for people in designated bays instead of stations.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#97

Post by skookumchuck »

wool_gather wrote: post #60
mdhen wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

This; arguing that a computer can't drive safely in conditions where a human can't either isn't an argument against computer drivers. Just because humans sometimes get away with it doesn't make it a good idea.

Well, I don't think there is any question about it. It can only be attributable to human error. This sort of thing has cropped up before, and it has always been due to human error.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#98

Post by grecy »

clay_the_ripper wrote: post #81

I don’t see the fact that self driving cars can’t drive in all conditions as a reason not to still want one that can drive on the freeway in good weather. A lot of people spend a large portion of their driving time on freeways so if we could solve that to a standard of safety that is acceptable, that would be a huge win in my book. As soon as it starts raining, have the system disengage and I’ll take over. It seems t…

The first cars ever couldn't drive in 100F+ heat, and wouldn't start below 0F. And even worse, there were virtually zero gas stations! Especially in rural areas!

Does that mean they were useless? Absolutely not!

Lately the mindset seems to be unless a product is all things to all people at all times then it's useless.

In reality a product just has to fit a category really well and it will sell like hotcakes. Then it will evolve in iterations.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#99

Post by kasey_junk »

njarboe wrote: post #30
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

Or most people. If it is actually blizzard conditions, one should have a very serious reason to be on the road. If not, stay at home instead of driving. Snow days are called for schools. Maybe work in general also?

In most places that have snow removal equipment “snow days” are actually called more frequently for cold. Leaving kids out in the cold is the issue.

Driving in sbasic snow is a solved problem for humans in much of the world.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#100

Post by boomboomsubban »

heartbreak wrote: post #92
njarboe wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or most people. If it is actually blizzard conditions, one should have a very serious reason to be on the road. If not, stay at home instead of driving. Snow days are called for schools. Maybe work in general also?

The temp doesn't rise above freezing in Minneapolis for 3 straight months of the year. There is snow on the roadways for at least 1/3 of the year. Your solution is that no one in Minneapolis should drive from November through March.

Not only are both your generalizations about winter untrue for most years, you know the difference between "snow on the road" and "blizzard conditions" if you live in Minnesota.
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