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Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

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Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#51

Post by gmadsen »

dbcurtis wrote: post #16
poulsbohemian wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've often wondered how much of this is hubris or fear vs. physics. What I mean is - are people in say, icy and snowy climates actually better drivers, able to adjust to the conditions, or are they fooling themselves? Likewise, the person going exceptionally slow and cautiously - are they misjudging the actual risk of inclement weather, relative to an actual scientific judgement? It certainly feels like humans become…

I don’t think they are qualitatively “better drivers”. But they are more experienced at certain things. When I lived in Minnesota, I got lots of practice driving in snow and ice and rain. Now in NorCal, not so much :) Its a skill. You get better with practice. The person going slow probably just hasn’t had enough practice yet with the conditions. Going slow is probably a good choice for them. Am I a better driver ove…

I've always been curious what "skills" need to be practiced to drive in the snow. It isn't overly technical. Just don't accelerate or brake too fast and dont turn while you are doing either. If you feel the car start to wobble or fishtail a little, it means you are going too fast.

Thats literally all I change, and I have done fine all my life

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#52

Post by smileysteve »

athenot wrote: post #36
gwern wrote: post #14

> Waymo, widely seen as leading the self-driving vanguard, says it has made progress teaching its software to better filter out “noise” from precipitation. The last Waymo leak claims that it is more than just 'progress', but that 'rain is solved', incidentally: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/09/14/waymo-plan...

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

> hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away?

I'd say that's pretty calculable, and has a solution, slow down to a speed that the tires can shed water.

Perhaps most telling about your qualification is the misplaced risk; the light precipitation with a little oil slick is likely more dangerous, mostly because you don't slow down for it.

Anecdotally, an even harder problem is when water exceeds 4", negotiating with traffic so you won't float away or get water in your intake.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#53

Post by smileysteve »

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #27
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

Variables I can think of that change: - Lane lines cease to be a thing, even if you can see them, you're better off not following them - Stoplights also mostly become a guideline, it's sometimes safer to run them than spin out - Signage or signalling may or may not be visible at all - Other cars or pedestrians may or may not be visible at all even in daylight - Your stopping distance can effectively change every few…

Infrared vision seems to handle a lot of these, if not especially the last one

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#54

Post by mdhen »

athenot wrote: post #36
gwern wrote: post #14

> Waymo, widely seen as leading the self-driving vanguard, says it has made progress teaching its software to better filter out “noise” from precipitation. The last Waymo leak claims that it is more than just 'progress', but that 'rain is solved', incidentally: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/09/14/waymo-plan...

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#55

Post by archagon »

mdhen wrote: post #54
athenot wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

While probably true, "then don't do that" almost never works as an excuse to convince new adopters of your technology.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#56

Post by jryle70 »

seibelj wrote: post #19

I’ve taken downvotes from HN optimists for years about self driving cars. The slightest bit of criticism would have comments calling me an idiot 20 different ways. Then a single dead pedestrian changes all the news articles and the opinions change. We are a very, very long way away from self driving taxi cabs. What a total PR scam that was - but it did help valuations.

Not sure if you have read the article, but it's actually about a company called WaveSense who claims to have developed ground-penetrating radar that can greatly improve all weather autonomous driving. So yes, it's a daunting task but lot of people are working on it and progress is being made. I'd be interested to hear your counterargument.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#57

Post by fucking_tragedy »

njarboe wrote: post #37
seibelj wrote: post #19

I’ve taken downvotes from HN optimists for years about self driving cars. The slightest bit of criticism would have comments calling me an idiot 20 different ways. Then a single dead pedestrian changes all the news articles and the opinions change. We are a very, very long way away from self driving taxi cabs. What a total PR scam that was - but it did help valuations.

In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though. How many deaths per year would be acceptable? Like you mention, in the US, it seems that zero deaths per year, similar to commercial aviation, would be required. It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deploy…

> It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe

This is a bit of a generous assumption. It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#58

Post by spin »

kxrm wrote: post #18
rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn’t sensing, it’s decision-making.

The trolley problem is a tough one.

In my entire life, I've never encountered the Trolley Problem, and I've never met anyone who has.

Most safety problems in driving can be solved by slowing down.

The problem with AI is all those weird, little edge cases that humans can reason through -- for example: if there's a deer next to the road, then I'll slow down, even if it's not on the road yet. I've known many people who have hit a deer when it spontaneously jumps into traffic. Or something like: someone's not quite staying in their own lane, so I have to be careful when I pass them.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#59

Post by emodendroket »

fucking_tragedy wrote: post #57
njarboe wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though. How many deaths per year would be acceptable? Like you mention, in the US, it seems that zero deaths per year, similar to commercial aviation, would be required. It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deploy…

> It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe This is a bit of a generous assumption. It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers.

Right. So many arguments just start from the premise that self-driving cars must be safer and then ask why we aren't racing to replace human drivers with them. In reality the proposition that they are safer is far from proven.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#60

Post by wool_gather »

mdhen wrote: post #54
athenot wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

This; arguing that a computer can't drive safely in conditions where a human can't either isn't an argument against computer drivers. Just because humans sometimes get away with it doesn't make it a good idea.
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