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Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

bloomberg.com

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Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#31

Post by grahamburger »

scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

This sounds like exactly the kind of job for a computer.

I live in an area that gets a lot of snow. The only 'safe' things for a human to do in snowy, icy, wet conditions are: slow down (a lot), leave a lot more following distance, stay home. I talk to a lot of people who seem to think that they are able to drive at full speed in the snow and complain about all of the 'out of town' drivers who slow down the roads because they 'don't know how to drive in the snow.' It's the people who make those kinds of complaints that frighten me the most - they are deluding themselves. I'd rather share the road with a computer.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#32

Post by bsagdiyev »

throwawayjava wrote: post #28
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

You and the people you know may just not be suited for driving in those conditions. Mountain areas in California have plenty of people capable driving in some serious snow with older cars, ABS is usually the only thing they have, no traction control or other software help. Anecdotal, of course, but so is your comment.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#33

Post by jerkstate »

throwawayjava wrote: post #28
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

I learned to drive on snow and ice in the midwest in a stick-shift car from the '70s.. of course, I would rather have traction control and ABS, but it can certainly be done (and it was for many years before the modern conveniences)

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#34

Post by dsfyu404ed »

throwawayjava wrote: post #28
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

How did people survive before ABS and traction control?

It's not that bad. You just dial back your risk taking to reflect the situation.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#36

Post by athenot »

gwern wrote: post #14

> Waymo, widely seen as leading the self-driving vanguard, says it has made progress teaching its software to better filter out “noise” from precipitation. The last Waymo leak claims that it is more than just 'progress', but that 'rain is solved', incidentally: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/09/14/waymo-plan...

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane for a bit?

These sound like edge cases but there are places where they occur very frequently and local human drivers, for all their faults, do have a way of dealing with them.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#37

Post by njarboe »

seibelj wrote: post #19

I’ve taken downvotes from HN optimists for years about self driving cars. The slightest bit of criticism would have comments calling me an idiot 20 different ways. Then a single dead pedestrian changes all the news articles and the opinions change. We are a very, very long way away from self driving taxi cabs. What a total PR scam that was - but it did help valuations.

In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though.

How many deaths per year would be acceptable? Like you mention, in the US, it seems that zero deaths per year, similar to commercial aviation, would be required. It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe. On the other hand, I'm sure people in India or China will be happy to build and deploy them with much higher failure rates. Maybe we can import those to the US someday.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#38

Post by pps43 »

poulsbohemian wrote: post #9
justtopost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here, is that you are half-right. Its localized conditions. No country, much less worldwide, system can account for local anomolies. Where I learned to drive, most humans could 'see' black ice by predicting where water will pool, the recent weather, and subtle clues that abound, but are not easily expressable. Any out-of-town'er would surely be spun out or driving 10mph, white-knuckled, aghast at the "man…

I've often wondered how much of this is hubris or fear vs. physics. What I mean is - are people in say, icy and snowy climates actually better drivers, able to adjust to the conditions, or are they fooling themselves? Likewise, the person going exceptionally slow and cautiously - are they misjudging the actual risk of inclement weather, relative to an actual scientific judgement? It certainly feels like humans become…

People in icy and snowy climates are not necessarily better drivers, but usually drive better in ice and snow than people who are rarely exposed to such conditions. It's a skill that can be learned through repetition.

They also tend to appreciate the importance of winter tires more.

This is anecdotal, but based on a rather large sample of people I know who moved to a nicer climate.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#39

Post by 8ytecoder »

svachalek wrote: post #25
threeseed wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still curious about street signs. Can any self driving car read parking signs because it's not like there is some API for when/where you can park or drop passengers off.

Waymo for one definitely reads signs, but I'm not sure about those. Lots are written in ways that the average adult human can't decipher.

I kid you not - “No parking Mon Tues and Thurs. Every Month” is a real sign. I'm yet to figure out what that means. Then there are the slightly confusing ones with conflicting messages which you learn to decipher with experience. Placement of signs (esp one-way) are not consistent or does not take into account and driving cars - how will a car exiting a garage or a highway know if it's one-way or no? Definitely not without a mapping software.

As someone who had to relearn the rules of the road for a new country - there is a lot that's unsaid.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#40

Post by fake-name »

giacaglia wrote: post #35

That's because of LIDAR, rain and snow interfere with LIDAR. A simple Google search shows that https://www.quora.com/Autonomous-driving-how-good-is-LiDAR-u...

To be fair, rain and snow interfere with millimetre wave radar too.
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