The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted • Hacker News Board

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#91

Post by matkins » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

beat wrote: post #63

ticviking wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean there are places where removing a hand is still the standard, and it reduces but doesn't end crime.

I live in a community with a massive number of Somali refugees. Amputated hands for crime/whatever are a common sight among the older men. Somalia is one of the most dangerous places in the world. Over time, Europe has abolished the death penalty. They have the lowest murder rates in the history of civilization. In the US, there are wide variations between states for violent crime. Unsurprisingly, the states with the…

I don't think that comparison is fair. Europe is an advanced, civilised and homogeneous place; Somalia and the US are nothing like that (for different reasons)

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#92

Post by DFHippie » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 8:51 PM UTC

pkaye wrote: post #19

lostlogin wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drum’s story has a good summary too. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

When did other countries reduce lead exposure. Does their crime statistics correspond to this decision?

Try this: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le...

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#93

Post by beat » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 8:56 PM UTC

matkins wrote: post #91

beat wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a community with a massive number of Somali refugees. Amputated hands for crime/whatever are a common sight among the older men. Somalia is one of the most dangerous places in the world. Over time, Europe has abolished the death penalty. They have the lowest murder rates in the history of civilization. In the US, there are wide variations between states for violent crime. Unsurprisingly, the states with the…

I don't think that comparison is fair. Europe is an advanced, civilised and homogeneous place; Somalia and the US are nothing like that (for different reasons)

It's an absolutely fair comparison. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that all of Europe was unimaginably barbaric by modern standards. Literally millions of people were put to death in gruesome ways for crimes we'd consider trivial (or not even crimes) today. And yet, the murder rate dropped right along with the end of absurdly draconian punishment.

Moreover, the violent crime rates for many parts of the US are no higher than in Europe. Coincidentally, those places tend to be the same states that have ended capital punishment.

Now, I'm not drawing a causal relationship between draconian punishment and an increase in crime. I'm just saying there's demonstrably no relationship between "tough on crime" harsh sentencing and a decrease in crime. Fear of violent retribution by the State is not what stops people from committing crimes. We have to look at other reasons.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#94

Post by frankosaurus » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 8:57 PM UTC

beat wrote: post #20

TomK32 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I though lead paint and lead in gasoline was a good candidate for the blip?

Pinker attributes it to cultural shifts, not causes like lead paint. I googled and found his discussion of the subject. It's worth reading. https://quod.lib.umich.edu/h/humfig/11217607.0002.206/--deci...

Interesting read. In Enlightenment Now, Pinker attributes the spike in opioid overdoses and suicides to "the druggy Baby Boomer cohort reaching middle age". (Similarly, the same cohort reached prime crime-committing age during the 1960s-80s spike in violence.)

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#95

Post by beat » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

bilbo0s wrote: post #90

rectang wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Voter suppression through felony disenfranchisement, however, remains en vogue. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/florida... "In Florida, more than 21 percent of black adults are disenfranchised because of this policy."

Certain states are likely to remain relatively worse places for minorities, particularly blacks, to live. But the system is bent in this manner everywhere, including California. The diffference, of course, is that in Florida the voting populace has collectively decided that they like the way things currently work. Whereas in places like California, the voting populace is deciding for a lot of reasons that they don't…

Even the most backwards parts of the Deep South are just trailing, but they're on the same path. They'll catch up eventually.

There was a time when lynch mobs were normal in the South.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#96

Post by smsm42 » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

beat wrote: post #73

smsm42 wrote: post #47

Wait, so California made if very hard to put a youngster in juvenile detention, and the number of youngsters juvenile detention plummeted. Is there some deep meaning behind this that I am missing? It's like saying "we reclassified most crimes from felony to misdemeanor and the number of felonies decreased dramatically!" Well, duh! The thing to check would be what happened to crime/reoffense rates. And then making con…

Yes, there is a deep meaning you're missing... namely, that the drop in juvenile detention mirrors a drop in crime across all parts of society.

I see no such comparison in the article. It may be so, or not - I have no idea. I know general crime rates are mostly declining (though it depends on place and crime - it's not universal) but I have no idea whether the drop in juvenile detention is the same as in crime, more or less. If it's the same, does it mean the reform described in the article had absolutely no effect and the reduction in detention is caused by other trend that was outside of reformer's control? Or does it mean absence of detention actually reduced the crime, causing virtuous cycle? If it's falling faster, how much this actually reduces the crime? None of these questions - which are vital for understanding the matter - were even mentioned, let alone answered.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#97

Post by gascan » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

40acres wrote: post #6

"Tough on crime" was always a dog whistle to signal to (most) voters that politicians were willing to lock up minorities for comparably minor crimes. It's good to see that the winds have shifted towards a more just system although there is a long way to go. I think there are many factors that contribute to this trend and would love to see a paper which goes into the details. I would bet that prosecutors have a lot to…

This seems like revisionist history. From the seventies thru the beginning of the nineties, the national homicide rate was double to triple what it is today. We had real crime problems in the "Tough On Crime" era, and we were hitting record crime rates.

A lazy Wiki snip:

Violent crime nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991. Property crime more than doubled over the same period. Since the 1990s, however, crime in the United States has declined steeply.

I'm sure there was probably always some racial influences, e.g. perhaps people were more willing to hand out harsh sentences because the defendants were mostly black. But to say that "Tough On Crime" was really just a cover to marginalize african americans & nothing more... it just seems like a stretch when you suggest everyone was in on it.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#98

Post by scythe » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 9:48 PM UTC

BowBun wrote: post #67

ryandrake wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, our society is set up so that once you are labeled a criminal, that label sticks with you for the rest of your life. Many aspects of legitimate law-abiding life, particularly employment and housing, get harder once you’ve been convicted of something, even after you’ve served your time. Every application that asks for your criminal history or “have you ever been convicted” cements this class distinction. If we w…

On the flip-side, however, many average people don't want former criminals in their society, near their kids, etc. How do you separate the ones who actually want to get back on track and live a normal life, and the ones that plan on committing more crimes as soon as they get out? If you were to offer your home as a halfway house or something similar, would you feel safe without any sort of guarantee for your safety?

>former criminals in their society, near their kids, etc.

This is mostly a result of words. If someone who committed a crime 2 years ago and someone who committed a crime 42 years ago are both "former criminals", people will avoid both of them.

>How do you separate the ones who actually want to get back on track and live a normal life, and the ones that plan on committing more crimes as soon as they get out?

Time is not perfect, but it is simple, effective and hard to cheat.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#99

Post by rossdavidh » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #83

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lead and Roe v Wade are often discussed, but it's one of those issues that's really hard to gain confidence about any particular explanation. It appears likely that both played a role, but to what extent is more difficult to say.

Roe v Wade is pretty far out there, but lead exposure has a lot of decent correlational data from different regions, since it was phased out around the country and around the world at different times.

Roe v Wade is not _that_ far out there. It explains state-level differences for when the decline began, for example. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but it's got some reasonable supporting evidence, enough to at least not be considered "out there".

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#100

Post by zdragnar » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 9:56 PM UTC

40acres wrote: post #6

"Tough on crime" was always a dog whistle to signal to (most) voters that politicians were willing to lock up minorities for comparably minor crimes. It's good to see that the winds have shifted towards a more just system although there is a long way to go. I think there are many factors that contribute to this trend and would love to see a paper which goes into the details. I would bet that prosecutors have a lot to…

> "Tough on crime" was always a dog whistle to signal to (most) voters that politicians were willing to lock up minorities for comparably minor crimes.

I think race in these discussions is a poor stand-in for the reality of the situation. It's convenient, because it's much more easily quantifiable than culture, and we in the US had laws calling out race until ~55 years ago. But, looking at today, cultural mores and attitudes are the more dominant factor.

Even liberal Minnesota has the highest (or one of) achievement gaps in education. Part is the high influx of immigrants, which introduces a lot of second-language barriers, but not all. See https://www.twincities.com/2017/08/18/15-years-later-mn-scho...

Looking at very rural, very white areas, you see very similar bad outcomes WRT education and crime. Some companies are willing to pay very good wages for workers, and are very short on staff, but cannot hire because so many of the candidates fail a drug test or won't take one. A teacher I know in rural Iowa has white children in kindergarten who know (and use) more swear words than most adults, and their parents (if they know more than one of them) have little interest in encouraging achievement in school. They'd rather blame the teacher for the child's bad behavior and grades.

Tough on crime was a misguided attempt to change the culture of drugs and violence. That culture is still glorified in popular music, and fueled by poverty. It destroys the potential for hope, and so leads to more hopelessness, which fuels the culture.

Yes, race plays a factor in all of this, but it's not the only factor, and I suspect (though know not where or even if it is possible to gather) that culture plays a far more significant role. I know several people who believe (or believed) in "Tough on Crime" and not one of them did so because of race, or to lock up minorities for minor crimes. They see families in their community torn apart by drugs and violence, drunk driving, and so on, and want it to stop.

Edit: I read / skimmed the article, and realized it mentioned growing segregation, but failed to mention an experiment run by Eden Prairie and Minneapolis, where students could voluntarily switch schools in an effort to de-segregate. The results were that those who took advantage of the switch were black students moving from suburban to urban schools, and minority white students in urban schools going out to the suburbs.