Another good google term is OSINT open source intelligence.
One source says they've got THE number one national secret radar lab, what could be hurt by making that public? Another source admits the place is brimming over with test pilots. Another source says they're doing a massive heavy construction project. Another source says this is a period of high optempo for flying despite heavy construction limiting runway operations. A great place to observe the AFB, such as a semi-abandoned observatory, is under temporary lockdown.
Note they're only locking down a great place to park a van full of radio observing gear, not locking down every little hiking trail where you can optically observe the base. Almost as if the AF base were a national secret radar lab; oh wait, it is, per their own public website and historical events.
Individually nothing above is classified or "intel worthy" but in combination if it isn't a week long systems integration test for some kind of anti-aircraft radar experiment, they've gone to great lengths to make it appear in public to be so. And that's the whole OSINT thing in a nutshell.
Comically, if they're not doing this kind of activity, you have to ask why not, since that kind of activity is why that publicly known national radar lab exists in the first place. I mean, if they're not doing what they're funded to do, that in itself is some kind of conspiracy theory.
I suppose the whole thing could be a psyop to determine conspiracy theory susceptibility; have a known, public, radar lab, do radar lab things, and see who freaks out is a valid psyop experiment. Personally I think the HAARP project of the 90s was more of a psyop troll along the lines of the above, than an actual scientific study OR an actual conspiracy theory. Some scientific research did happen, but mostly I think they just wanted to F with Art Bell listeners and see how they respond.
Of course, OSINT can be a diversion up to and including faking the whole thing by releasing a small number of cheap and easy irrelevant press releases and seeing which vans full of electronics equipment driven by foreign nationals sit in parking lots in sight of the base; its entirely possible literally nothing is going on inside the base, its all a counter-intel operation. A honeypot operation. Maybe some foreigner took the bait and drove up to the observatory surrounded by FBI agents with a van full of monitoring equipment, that would be an epic troll of a foreign intel agency, usually they keep that kind of thing quiet and we'll never hear. Possibly locking the place down and closing the post office and getting news coverage including here is a component of the counter-intel honeypot operation, LOL.
OSINT is more of a method of analyzing seemingly unrelated data, than proving any hypothesis. But the OSINT synthesis of the situation boils down to "a known military radar lab appears to be extremely busy doing radar stuff this week".