Earlier quoted context omitted.
Self-driving car: ZF Electric car: ZF TaaS: ZF Self-driving advertising services: ZF All will be available, all from the same company. EDIT: Waymo laughed at "route-based advertising" when I mentioned, but ZF supports this idea. Route-based advertising or route advertising is an advertising model where your vehicle diverts to make you see a particular place and/or get you to visit a particular shop. For example, it m…
Silly question, but what do you mean when you type "ZF"?
Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
151–160 of 440 posts
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#152Driverless cars are coming along just fine. Waymo is making steady progress. The sensors are getting better. The problem comes from all those "fake it til you make it" startups, Uber and Tesla being the worst. Both have killed people. This is mostly about sensors and geometry. Machine learning has a role, but only in target identification. That's how Waymo does it. The fake it til you make it crowd had the fantasy th…
> Driverless cars are coming along just fine.
I am curious why you believe this to be the case? Driverless cars have yet to even come close to being workable in adverse conditions, to my knowledge, please correct me if I am wrong.
> This is mostly about sensors and geometry.
And mostly about the limitations of sensors, and the limitation of available algorithms to overcome geometry. A algorithm a driverless car uses to overcome some geographical feature might expect something to be spherical, but in reality, it ends up being elliptical, only it is too late for the car to adjust, for example, or vice versa. There is literally hundreds of thousands of potential corner cases out there. The earth in itself is a good example: although many people try to do distance calculations with lat/long and some standard radius are usually off by n precision points because the earth isn't perfectly spherical, only approximately. Driverless cars have to be precise. A couple points off might spell the difference between safely driving in the lanes, and veering into a ditch, off a cliff, or into a median or obstacle.
Sensors will suffer some of the same problems (or different problems) as our biological sensors do. How will road signs, lines, and likewise be detected in adverse conditions? Snow? How will radar overcome natural geographical corner reflectors?
Driverless cars seem to becoming along just fine in perfect conditions.
Not trying to be defeatist, but I believe if we want true driverless technology, the infrastructure will have to support the vehicles for these edge cases that we cannot overcome. Or we can continue to be idealists. I for one wish we never gave up on trains -- they are the perfect "driverless" technology candidate.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But in most of America we need to get back to the point where cars are no longer a necessity While I completely agree with you, the cultural barriers to this are petty much a non-starter in much of the country. I love not owning a car and being able to rely on mass transit where I live (Austin, TX), but Texas is so culturally opposed to anything like this. A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, an…
>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor That's because it is. I had to take the metro in Montréal to get to work this week, hadn't taken it in months because I usually bike, it's such a shitty experience. It smells bad, it's hot, it's filled with tired people that don't feel like going to work (you feel it in the air), beggars harass you, it's slow (it can take 3x as much time as riding a bike to ge…
You say that, but a quick Google search undermines your assumption.
At least in the US, the number of people holding a license has dropped off a cliff since the 80s. More folks in urban areas are turning to pub trans and other sources.
There are numerous studies to back up the notion that the era of ubiquitous private ownership of a personal vehicle is about to screech to a halt.
Costs of purchase, maintenance, gas, insurance, environmental concerns, and easy to use options available to an increasingly urban population are the most common responses provided to numerous surveys.
Future generations aren't inclined to babysit and nurse previous generations pet projects. Ubiquitous car ownership is barely a generation old idea, and there are a number of signs, IMO, it won't last many more.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I wouldn’t say speech recognition is solved. It’s still quite error prone. Sure it is, but it's doing a hell of a lot better than many critics thought ever possible. >Self-driving cars need to be even better or people will die. People will always die. Requiring with certainty that self-driving cars will never cause accidents is a purely emotional instinct with no regard for facts or well-being of people. The only th…
If we look at humans as a counter, sure, apply all the stats you'd like, but I don't think we should do that when it comes to self driving cars. if we simplify the driving risks, we have: 1. driver kills him/herself 2. driver kills person outside his/her car * Humans and computers can make mistakes on both. But, my wife and I can teach our kid everything we have learned over the years, to prevent 1, and try to reduce…
Everyone thinks they are good drivers, yet hundreds of thousands of people are dying every year because of these "good drivers." Not sure what makes you think that teaching your kid what you know will make them a better driver than software that will continue to be iterated on and improved based on millions and millions of miles of data (more data than you and your wife could ever pass along to your child). Also not sure why you think your own driving will be better than self-driving cars.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The fake it til you make it crowd had the fantasy that you just hook up some cameras to a machine learning system, train it, and you have self driving. There are about 7 billion instances of those learning systems though. Will this be replicated with machines in the next 10 years? I have no clue. Is this doable at all? Sure.
There's absolutely no equivalence between a CNN created today with deep learning, compared to the Neural Network in a human brain. The problem with the human brain is one of inattention. CNNs / Artificial Neural Networks can remain at attention 100% of the time due to their artificial / machine nature. But CNNs, despite being at 100% attention the entire time, still have issues determining if that splotch on the scre…
I explicitly wrote my comment because @Animats said "machine learning system", not "CNN", which I know definitely not enough about to comment on.
Surely the field of "machine learning" includes things which are not even invented yet, the same way maths comprises of theorems not yet discovered.
I was just saying that I think one could "just hook up some cameras to a machine learning system, train it, and you have self driving", maybe not today though.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#156Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hasn’t Tesla autopilot saved more lives than it took? So it’s more net beneficial (so far) than cautious Waymo?
How could it do that? The safety statistics quoted by Tesla is "fatalities per mile of Autopilot-enabled vehicle", compared to "fatalities per mile for the average car on the road". It's by no means an accurate comparison, in fact they're inflating their relative safety versus other cars by more than an order of magnitude.
Tangential to your point, do you think it's fair to compare AI driven cars to "average" drivers? I think it's more reasonable to compare them to "average [worst_category_of_driver]." For example, how does the Tesla car compare to teen drivers? If it's better than a meaningfully sized category of human drivers, it's probably ready for the road. Being on the real road is where the best data will be collected.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#158Driverless cars are coming along just fine. Waymo is making steady progress. The sensors are getting better. The problem comes from all those "fake it til you make it" startups, Uber and Tesla being the worst. Both have killed people. This is mostly about sensors and geometry. Machine learning has a role, but only in target identification. That's how Waymo does it. The fake it til you make it crowd had the fantasy th…
Hasn’t Tesla autopilot saved more lives than it took? So it’s more net beneficial (so far) than cautious Waymo?
How would we get accurate information on the number of lives Tesla's "autopilot" has saved?
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#159Driverless cars are coming along just fine. Waymo is making steady progress. The sensors are getting better. The problem comes from all those "fake it til you make it" startups, Uber and Tesla being the worst. Both have killed people. This is mostly about sensors and geometry. Machine learning has a role, but only in target identification. That's how Waymo does it. The fake it til you make it crowd had the fantasy th…
Hasn’t Tesla autopilot saved more lives than it took? So it’s more net beneficial (so far) than cautious Waymo?
How did you conclude this? There are other similarly-priced but more-numerous models of car where literally nobody has ever died after crashing one. Controlling for price (as a proxy for the wealth of the occupants) Tesla has a poor safety record.
Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
#160Driverless cars are coming along just fine. Waymo is making steady progress. The sensors are getting better. The problem comes from all those "fake it til you make it" startups, Uber and Tesla being the worst. Both have killed people. This is mostly about sensors and geometry. Machine learning has a role, but only in target identification. That's how Waymo does it. The fake it til you make it crowd had the fantasy th…
Self-driving car: ZF Electric car: ZF TaaS: ZF Self-driving advertising services: ZF All will be available, all from the same company. EDIT: Waymo laughed at "route-based advertising" when I mentioned, but ZF supports this idea. Route-based advertising or route advertising is an advertising model where your vehicle diverts to make you see a particular place and/or get you to visit a particular shop. For example, it m…
That is extremely dystopian