Live data from Hacker News

Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

wsj.com

81–90 of 440 posts

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#81

I think a lot of people in this field did see this coming. I knew a few people in this space about a year ago and I pretty much hear: "realistically, 15 years out at the earliest." I really really hate the concept of a driverless car. It's an incredibly difficult problem space; and for the same cost, America could build up municipal rail and bus infrastructure to where they were in the 1940s/1950s. We need more citie…

America’s economic bread and butter is innovation. We’re creating an entirely new market segment. That’s why new driverless cars are far more attractive than improving public transport infrastructure.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#82
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in most of America we need to get back to the point where cars are no longer a necessity While I completely agree with you, the cultural barriers to this are petty much a non-starter in much of the country. I love not owning a car and being able to rely on mass transit where I live (Austin, TX), but Texas is so culturally opposed to anything like this. A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, an…

­>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor That's because it is. I had to take the metro in Montréal to get to work this week, hadn't taken it in months because I usually bike, it's such a shitty experience. It smells bad, it's hot, it's filled with tired people that don't feel like going to work (you feel it in the air), beggars harass you, it's slow (it can take 3x as much time as riding a bike to ge…

> That's because it is

It largely depends on the country or even city. Me and my gf went to Switzerland by car a couple of years ago (we live in Eastern Europe) and I’d had expected that we’d visit different parts of the country by car. What happened once we got there is that we “forgot” the car in the hotel’s parking lot for a week and we did all our travel by train, it was wonderful. Even traveling inside the city itself (we were based in Lausanne) was a very nice thing, I’ve started building a soft spot in my heart for the city’s trolley-buses (electric public transport rocks, btw, always has, alwsys will).

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#83
post #12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn’t say speech recognition is solved. It’s still quite error prone. Self-driving cars need to be even better or people will die. Perhaps self-driving cars can be deployed in a limited way, as taxis, for example.

>I wouldn’t say speech recognition is solved. It’s still quite error prone. Sure it is, but it's doing a hell of a lot better than many critics thought ever possible. >Self-driving cars need to be even better or people will die. People will always die. Requiring with certainty that self-driving cars will never cause accidents is a purely emotional instinct with no regard for facts or well-being of people. The only th…

If we look at humans as a counter, sure, apply all the stats you'd like, but I don't think we should do that when it comes to self driving cars. if we simplify the driving risks, we have: 1. driver kills him/herself 2. driver kills person outside his/her car

* Humans and computers can make mistakes on both.

But, my wife and I can teach our kid everything we have learned over the years, to prevent 1, and try to reduce 2. I consider ourselves better than average drivers, if I get my kid a self driving car that is not as good as us, I won't care that it drives better than my neighbor or someone in California.

And in a tragic scenario, it's one thing to say, my kid made a fatal mistake vs, some random QA didn't do a good job and now my family is minus 1

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#84
post #36

I think a lot of people in this field did see this coming. I knew a few people in this space about a year ago and I pretty much hear: "realistically, 15 years out at the earliest." I really really hate the concept of a driverless car. It's an incredibly difficult problem space; and for the same cost, America could build up municipal rail and bus infrastructure to where they were in the 1940s/1950s. We need more citie…

In level of stupidity, the concept of self driving car in my opinion is second only to a flying car. The second disregard, that well... there are airplanes. The first, that driverless busses that creep at 30km/h and do emergency brake every every 10 minutes thanks to overattentive collision avoidance system also been around for decades.

We've had flying cars for decades. They're called helicopters. Unfortunately they're much too expensive for the masses. But I don't see why anyone would consider the concept stupid.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#85
post #74

The argument that autonomous tech will save lives is the most dangerous. This will take decades to be true. The same companies who are pushing for that narrative, are also the first ones to blame the drivers when their tech goes wrong. There’s so much data fudging to push for those narratives — they want the credit for lives saved, and at the same time don’t want the blame or liability for accidents caused.

Or maybe we hold driverless cars up to an unfair standard. Today, 3000 people die in the US every single day because of car accidents. Many, many more are injured or disabled.

Why would we expect driverless cars to reduce that to 0? Shouldn't it be good enough if they reduce it to 50%? 25%?

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#86
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in most of America we need to get back to the point where cars are no longer a necessity While I completely agree with you, the cultural barriers to this are petty much a non-starter in much of the country. I love not owning a car and being able to rely on mass transit where I live (Austin, TX), but Texas is so culturally opposed to anything like this. A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, an…

­>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor That's because it is. I had to take the metro in Montréal to get to work this week, hadn't taken it in months because I usually bike, it's such a shitty experience. It smells bad, it's hot, it's filled with tired people that don't feel like going to work (you feel it in the air), beggars harass you, it's slow (it can take 3x as much time as riding a bike to ge…

I can't speak for Montreal, but there are countless counterexamples of cities in wealthy countries (not as wealthy as the US) where metro users are drawn from more or less every income level. Turns out you can actually make riding a metro into a good experience with a bit of effort.

New York, Chicago, Tokyo, Taipei, London, Berlin, Munich come immediately to mind.

And as sibling commenters have pointed out, in some places even smaller cities and towns have excellent public transit networks that pretty much everyone uses (maybe not always, but when convenient). Freiburg, Germany is one example I've seen.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will very likely kill far fewer per mile driven than humans do. Unfortunately you're right -- it probably still will kill some. Even nonfatal accidents will be scrutinized heavily and leave a lasting impression of fear/loss of control.

That's totally unproven, the technology doesn't even exist yet and we're still assuming we know what it will look like. In their current state self driving cars would kill far more people than humans if all cars used self driving 100% of the time, and no one knows if we will ever move past that.

Despite the imperfect technology, I'd bet that if we could somehow make all cars autonomous today (with current tech) and network them all together, it would drastically reduce both accidents and fatalities.

The vast majority of accidents by human drivers are caused by basic neglect, not tricky edge case situations. I think it's hard to really comprehend just how bad humans are at driving. It wouldn't take anything close to a perfect autonomous system to do better--just having "drivers" that actually pay attention to their surroundings all the time would be a massive improvement, even if there were occasional bugs and glitches.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#88
While I am still waiting for my Tesla Model 3 SR, I browse the Tesla forums and find it amusing (or maybe just sad) that Tesla is charging $5000+ for Full Self Driving (FSD). Owners are paying for the future possibility that the car will be "conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat" [per Tesla Model 3 ordering page].

I think some Tesla owners are even expecting that their car will go self work for Uber over night, generating the user income. Other customers seem to be paying the fee, yet they are just leasing their car. Will these leasees ever see any significant FSD features?

This article gets it right that self-driving is way, way off. It will be interesting to see what and when Telsa delivers to its customers who prepaid for FSD. I think Tesla already settled a lawsuit with some owners over self-driving fees and associated delays.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#89
post #41

I think a lot of people in this field did see this coming. I knew a few people in this space about a year ago and I pretty much hear: "realistically, 15 years out at the earliest." I really really hate the concept of a driverless car. It's an incredibly difficult problem space; and for the same cost, America could build up municipal rail and bus infrastructure to where they were in the 1940s/1950s. We need more citie…

> but all the people who are barely making it who's lives fall apart if something on their car breaks. Maybe people need to take personal responsibility and not spend money as if the government will make things easier for them and solve all problems. I am not claiming this is possible for everyone there are truly people who need help. But the vast majority of people can try to live in a way that they can have persona…

> people need to take personal responsibility

Whenever someone says this I assume the opposite; America is not a place of uniquely irresponsible people.

People have had cashflow issues since the dawn of cash, often mitigated by complex family informal credit systems.

Re: Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality

#90
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in most of America we need to get back to the point where cars are no longer a necessity While I completely agree with you, the cultural barriers to this are petty much a non-starter in much of the country. I love not owning a car and being able to rely on mass transit where I live (Austin, TX), but Texas is so culturally opposed to anything like this. A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, an…

­>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor That's because it is. I had to take the metro in Montréal to get to work this week, hadn't taken it in months because I usually bike, it's such a shitty experience. It smells bad, it's hot, it's filled with tired people that don't feel like going to work (you feel it in the air), beggars harass you, it's slow (it can take 3x as much time as riding a bike to ge…

Mass transit will always be viewed as the lesser option where it is the lesser option.

In cities that were designed or entirely remade to support the automobile, the automobile works better than everything else. This is almost a tautology, but it's remarkable how often it's overlooked in this discussion. If cities were re-designed around transit (with more density, smaller roads, and more space for alternative transportation modes), then transit would work better and cars would be worse. †

In summary, yes, obviously cars work better in cities designed for cars! But cities that work well for cars aren't a natural feature of the universe. It took a lot of work to get them to look like that.

† An important implication of this is that transit will never overtake the automobile in low-density, sprawl-heavy cities. Transit use is high where the transit infrastructure is good and driving is painful. Both things have to be true. ††

And the tension here is direct. Sprawl-heavy areas can't support good transit infrastructure and high-density, pedestrian-friendly areas are awful to drive in. A choice for one is a vote against the other.

†† This is why arguments about the superiority of cars based on revealed preference are usually spurious. If you put a light rail system in a town built for cars, then people will keep using the thing the town was built for. But those people are revealing their preference for cars in an environment built for cars. Where the built environment is different, people behave differently.

Post reply on HN