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China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

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Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#81

Post by jeffmcmahan »

somethingsimple wrote: post #64
bitxbit wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it comes down to US and UK in terms of general science research. I would include Japan but language is an issue (for many). Despite what the average math and science metrics in the US imply, I actually think it’s a direct result of more practical approach to education in the US. There are unbelievable opportunities for young students who want to excel in sciences. I was around graduate level research environm…

How hard it is to access it as an adult with a career? I'm an immigrant software engineer but I'd love to work in research (I think). Is there a path other than a PhD at this point?

There is no need to jump in as a PhD. Enroll as an undergraduate anywhere that has a good department in the area you're interested in, and then express interest and work as hard as you can -- if you show promise, the faculty and graduate students will notice you and enjoy your conversation. However, if you want a paid career as a researcher, you will absolutely need a PhD.

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#82

Post by Eridrus »

nicodjimenez wrote: post #60
nicodjimenez wrote: post #59

The impact of publications in technical fields is so long tailed that 1000 mediocre publications doesn't equal one single breakthrough paper (eg the AlexNet paper in deep learning). Even according to the source cited in the article ( http://www.nber.org/papers/w24829 ) impact per paper is much lower in China. Once China beats the US in both volume and quality, we'll know the balance of intellectual capital has really…

People over-obsess about how China is beating us in science and technology, and not enough about how China is becoming so entrepreneurial while US citizens are becoming extremely risk averse.

Are people becoming more risk averse, or do we have more people in precarious positions where they face more serious down sides if their gamble doesn't pay off?

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#83

Post by stochastic_monk »

jeffmcmahan wrote: post #75
stochastic_monk wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t feel so hopeless. There are a lot of initiatives to reduce the influence of money in politics coming down the pipeline.

I hope you're right. Do you have specific policy moves in mind?

I think this [0] is a step in the right direction. I also think legislation regarding campaign finance, which would supersede Citizens United, is desperately needed.

[0] https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/warren...

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#84

Post by bitxbit »

sixo wrote: post #69
bitxbit wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it comes down to US and UK in terms of general science research. I would include Japan but language is an issue (for many). Despite what the average math and science metrics in the US imply, I actually think it’s a direct result of more practical approach to education in the US. There are unbelievable opportunities for young students who want to excel in sciences. I was around graduate level research environm…

My immediate reaction to this is you _probably_ had well-off parents in or adjacent to academia, and (separately) are likely to be in the demographic majority here.

No. I grew up in inner city, poverty, single parent. Believe it or not most scientists are extremely generous with their time and these programs do exist for students who seek them out.

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#85

Post by adventured »

nicodjimenez wrote: post #60
nicodjimenez wrote: post #59

The impact of publications in technical fields is so long tailed that 1000 mediocre publications doesn't equal one single breakthrough paper (eg the AlexNet paper in deep learning). Even according to the source cited in the article ( http://www.nber.org/papers/w24829 ) impact per paper is much lower in China. Once China beats the US in both volume and quality, we'll know the balance of intellectual capital has really…

People over-obsess about how China is beating us in science and technology, and not enough about how China is becoming so entrepreneurial while US citizens are becoming extremely risk averse.

Except that's no longer the case, China's private sector is moving backwards and being squeezed out. The era of an ascendant private sector is over, Xi has shifted gears out of growth desperation. The Chinese Government is pushing all resources toward state enterprises again, and depriving credit to the private sector. It makes sense that when you consolidate power into one monolith, that monolith will prefer to consolidate power into fewer levers they directly control (massive, ineffecient state enterprises). That's a shift away from what had been an increase in decentralized economic control in the prior Deng-policy era.

See: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-11/china-tur...

"As growth stumbles, Beijing is falling back on a tried and trusted solution: using large, government-backed companies to spur activity. That’s squeezing out private and small firms."

"Higher borrowing costs, weak household spending and rising prices point to the beginnings of what could be a wider consumption downgrade. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment growth is near record lows, and the fiscal situation is looking increasingly constrained."

"Operating conditions for small companies are getting worse, they’re holding inventory for longer, and the time it takes them to convert working capital into cash is increasing"

"The number of money-losing private industrial companies jumped about 40 percent as of June from a year earlier, while the number of unprofitable state-backed firms stayed flat. "

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#86

Post by tryptophan »

Eridrus wrote: post #82
nicodjimenez wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People over-obsess about how China is beating us in science and technology, and not enough about how China is becoming so entrepreneurial while US citizens are becoming extremely risk averse.

Are people becoming more risk averse, or do we have more people in precarious positions where they face more serious down sides if their gamble doesn't pay off?

I'd think that china had many more people in precarious positions than we do in the US. Perhaps it is that people are much more comfortable in the US and do not need to be entrepreneurial to have a decent life?

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#87

Post by bitxbit »

lovich wrote: post #76
bitxbit wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it comes down to US and UK in terms of general science research. I would include Japan but language is an issue (for many). Despite what the average math and science metrics in the US imply, I actually think it’s a direct result of more practical approach to education in the US. There are unbelievable opportunities for young students who want to excel in sciences. I was around graduate level research environm…

My home towns school stopped giving homework when I was in high school because the budget ran out for paper halfway through the year. There may be unparalleled access to science research in the US, but it is unevenly distributed

As a parent, I agree with you 100% and this is a big problem in the US because quality of teaching has gone down drastically over the past twenty years. I think teaching in public schools should be a mandatory public service (or highly incentivized ie loan forgiveness) for college graduates.

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#88

Post by adventured »

Eridrus wrote: post #82
nicodjimenez wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People over-obsess about how China is beating us in science and technology, and not enough about how China is becoming so entrepreneurial while US citizens are becoming extremely risk averse.

Are people becoming more risk averse, or do we have more people in precarious positions where they face more serious down sides if their gamble doesn't pay off?

The US social safety net is drastically better today than it was in the recent past (eg 1980 or 1990). It's now comparable to the OECD median. I know this is an unpopular statement, because for decades it has been a common attack point to go after the US on this front. However the US is spending a lot more per capita on its welfare policies, inflation adjusted, than it was a few decades ago. Particularly since the mid to late 1990s there has been a very large jump and it has had equally large, tangible results. It's important to point out the positive results, so that progress isn't rolled back.

Poverty and homelessness are both near all-time lows (homelessness is at all-time lows). Homelessness is an area where the US has made very big strides in the last two decades, and it's not talked about enough. The poverty rate is down to 12.3% and has been declining since the great recession ended, accelerating the last few years. There are only two short periods of time in modern US history where the poverty rate was much lower (the peak of the late 1990s boom, and for about three years in the 1970s).

In the last ~25 years the US has also reduced by about 50% the number of people that aren't covered by healthcare (currently 8.8% of people), mostly thanks to the ACA and Medicaid expansion. We're spending over $600 billion per year on free healthcare for the bottom quarter of people. In 2005, 42 million people (14% of the population) were covered by Medicaid, today that's 66.8 million (20.5% of the population). Cynics will claim that's a negative, it's not, it's an improvement in the US social safety net courtesy of expanding who is covered by Medicaid. CHIP and SS disability have further broadened free healthcare coverage in that time frame as well.

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#89

Post by ISL »

whatshisface wrote: post #2

> They document a rapid expansion between 2000 and 2016, as the Chinese share of global publications in physical sciences, engineering and math quadrupled. I really hate to risk being the guy who says "they will never best us," until they do, but in my field and many others Chinese papers are known to be of a lower quality standard and a lot more mill-like. This may come as a surprise to many, but the simple fact is…

In my branch of physics, the best Chinese papers are beginning to make leading contributions to their subfields.

As it turns out, if you make a well-funded and sustained effort at something, you can get good at it.

As an example, within my specialty: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0431-5

Re: China now the most prolific contributor to physical sciences, engineering, math

#90

Post by _louisr_ »

throwaway713 wrote: post #36

The quality debate about scientific merit aside, if the U.S. wants to remain "the best", then we need to incentivize the best scientists and researchers in other countries to come here and become U.S. citizens. A lot of famous physicists, mathematicians, and logicians have done this over the past 100 years. Unfortunately, the attractiveness of becoming a U.S. citizen is waning because (1) current U.S. policies on sci…

Right... More scientists and researchers making less than minimum wage is surely the answer
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