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The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

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Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#71

Post by GuiA »

awakeasleep wrote: post #60
GuiA wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum: "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashid_bin_Saeed_Al_Maktoum#De...

Keep in mind a decent camel starts at $55k and a thoroughbred goes for $10m to $30m

A cursory google search seems to indicate those are prices for racing camels. In that case, not too surprising - one observes similar gaps between race horses and “every day” horses.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#72

Post by pluto9 »

tjr225 wrote: post #52
oliveshell wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me personally, 350-400 miles (in the worst case: with the A/C on full blast, up an incline, including frequent stopping and acceleration) would be a start. But it’s also about about refueling (i.e. charging). Until a spot at a supercharger is as easy to come by as a gas station wherever you go, it won’t be the same. Not to mention having to wait 30+ minutes to charge, which can add up on a road trip.

What if there were "battery stations" with charged swappable, standardized batteries? You could do your own charging at home or at work otherwise.

It would be tough to standardize this across different vehicle models, much less manufacturers. A Model S isn't going to use the same battery pack as an electric heavy-duty pickup truck. You could use lots of small battery packs and bigger vehicles get more of them, but that complicates the machinery used to swap them.

It also hinders innovation. You can't produce batteries with innovative new form factors because nobody will be able to change them out at standard swap stations.

Finally, consumers would object to it. If I buy a brand new Model S I don't want to go to the swap station and give away my shiny new battery for someone's degraded high-mileage one that has an unknown probability of exploding or catching fire.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#73

Post by Shivetya »

melling wrote: post #37
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

my case, I have a 3. I have a trip between Georgia and Ohio soon. This is three to four stops each direction. however the key stop when visiting is that I cannot charge at my destination. At home I have the necessary plug in my garage.

so at my destination I need to account for distance back to the nearest super charger. Fortunately for me the nearest at one destination is fifty miles but another is little closer. That knocks off 100 usable miles right there. Since the recommendation is not to charge to full except on long legs of your trip that will leave me about 150 miles of local driving.

What I think is going to be fun is that we already look back at the beta generation of sub 100 mile range EVs as unacceptable and the crop of 100-150 mile range EVs will join them soon. Within 5 years or so I bet 200-250 mile range EVs will be seen as quaint at the upper price points but mainstream in the 20k price range.

However EV range increases face many hurdles. the first is range is weight. 310 mile range packs in the 3 are just shy of 1100 pounds. Charging them to full with current SC tech is still an hour. At home at 32amp it is 30 miles of range an hour and damn if that cord gets very warm. Homes can reasonably be expected to step up to 48amp but after that requires rethinking how we build homes. On the road it will require systems beyond the Tesla Supercharger system but that involves its own problems of heat.

For anyone who wants one car and does trips the require more than one charging cycle 250+ is a requirement. Also, part of range anxiety just is not the range but the time it takes to replenish that range

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#74

Post by jonknee »

gwbas1c wrote: post #44
chrisco255 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?

Because people will charge at their destinations or at home. Think of it this way: You go on a long trip and need to stop for gas somewhere along the trip. Instead, you just plug in at your destination. That saves you a stop.

If you were going on a trip long enough that it requires a stop in an ICE vehicle you're going to have to stop in your electric vehicle. Maybe even stop twice.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#75

Post by dv_dt »

kavabean wrote: post #65

This is a political disaster. Fracked crude is only profitable because the externalised costs of the catastrophic environmental damage are born by others. This is another direct wealth transfer from the general population i.e. 99% to the 1%. If instead of allowing fracking we invested massively in renewables we'd have more jobs, a path to much-cheaper-than oil energy, and we wouldn't be leaving toxic residue all over…

Fracked crude might not even be first-order profitable. There is an assertion here by a book author being interviewed that the fracking industry is largely not long-run profitable and that only low interest rates allowed them to run speculatively at all.

https://www.marketplace.org/2018/09/11/economy/economics-fra...

This was new to me, and I don't really know if it's a correct assessment. But it's very interesting to mull over. I wonder if anyone has other information in this vein?

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#76

Post by beaner »

awakeasleep wrote: post #60
GuiA wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum: "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashid_bin_Saeed_Al_Maktoum#De...

Keep in mind a decent camel starts at $55k and a thoroughbred goes for $10m to $30m

For the clueless like me, is there a joke here?

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#77

Post by triviatise »

melling wrote: post #37
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

We are already there, 200 miles is already plenty. The vast majority of people only commute and the average commute distance is 16 miles each way so a 200 mile electric car satisfies the main use case. Married households could do an electric car for commuting and a gas vehicle for longer trips.

The main issue is one of cost, a secondary issue is style. Tesla's are expensive, but other automakers will fill the gap, with cheaper cars. Unfortunately today all electric cars except tesla are uniformly ugly.

I think people are ready for an electric car for daily commuting, but the cars need to be in the $20K range, 200 miles, and not look like crap.

Also keep in mind it doesnt make sense to sell an existing car to buy an electric car, so there is a 8-15 year lifecycle for people to ditch their old cars.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#78

Post by saryant »

crunchlibrarian wrote: post #40

Energy independence achieved. Except it hasn't been at all, because much of the oil is more profitable to sell and refine abroad than use domestically. So if we actually wanted to force independence we'd need to prohibit companies from exporting their oil. I doubt that's ever happening. Watch the "energy independence" talking point evaporate now that the new millionaires have been minted. It's almost as if that's wha…

We're energy independent in the 1970's sense, which is when the term originated. We are no longer subject to the sort of oil embargo OPEC initiated in 1973 over Western nations' support of Israel, because the West now has sufficient capacity to plug any gap in supply.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#79

Post by astrodust »

singularity2001 wrote: post #33
ddebernardy wrote: post #17

Good on them. But what a sorry state to be in, when global warming and sea level rise related problems already are a reality in Miami or - of all places - Norfolk's naval base.

10 cm are already a problem? did I miss some news / tides?

A) It's a foot compared to historical levels, it's 10cm since the 1990s.

B) It's a constant problem in Miami where high tide is now above the level of many roads so they've had to jack the roads up several feet more.

C) Venice, Italy is routinely flooded because of sea-level rise and it's only getting worse.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#80

Post by ChristianBundy »

8ytecoder wrote: post #25

This ignores the fact that Saudi Arabia has a large spare capacity that it doesn't deploy - except when it's absolutely necessary. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-saudi-trump/can-...

That's right. This article is about the production of crude oil, not necessarily the capacity for production.
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