Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
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Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
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Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#2One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system.
It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sense? When everyone is betting on his success by blindly investing in index funds.
Bet on the winners (because they're in the S&P 500 or some total market fund), even if they aren't performing that well by their accounting metrics. Everyone will be so invested in propping up the largest companies (or at least the US/China economic moneymakers) that when a few big players seem to be doing something egregious, it will be a tsunami of sells as opposed to a small wave.
When everyone is playing and no one knows how to play (because why do I care what the market does? I just let the index fund manage for me), it just reminds me of the advice "if it seems too good to be true, it probably is". The current narrative is: you don't need to know how to invest (neither does your investment fund manager). Just bet on everything, and we'll all win. And by we, we mean the fat cats who are taking in that investment money you're giving us. You'll make a meager return, but we'll make oh so much more.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#3One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
Index funds don't necessarily need to react to price changes.
If you have 2 companies A, B worth both worth X billion each and you own 1 billion$ of each. Then if A's value doubles you now own 2 billion$ of A and 1 billion$ of B which is also the correct ratio.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#4One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
> You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sense? When everyone is betting on his success by blindly investing in index funds.
Let's see...
AMZN: up 62.93% YTD
S&P500: up 6.81% YTD
I don't think index fund investors are the cause of Amazon's growth.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#5The surprise that is coming is that the working class won't tolerate being robbed in the next financial crisis.
Working American's had to financially absorb the 2008 Mortgage crisis. 2008 was a direct robbery because Mortgage Orginators KNEW the mortgages would blow up, because their own Underwriting equations said they would. That is why they did fraud on the customer's income levels or worked with politicians to allow ignoring customer's income.
It caused a $5 trillion in transfer from the wealthy away from the working classes to the investor class in that 2008 Mortgage crisis.
The 2008 Mortgage crisis robbed the working classes, and transferred to the investor classes. Homes lost because of unemployment. Savings gone via rigged economy unemployment. Bail outs. Banks offloaded their worthless assets with government buying them. Wall Street over leveragged had huge wealth handed to them in money printing that was giving directly to their balance sheets.
The surpise will come the next time a Financial Crisis comes and the government works to sell out the working class
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#6One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
> You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sense? When everyone is betting on his success by blindly investing in index funds. Let's see... AMZN: up 62.93% YTD S&P500: up 6.81% YTD I don't think index fund investors are the cause of Amazon's growth.
My theory it is QE and maybe Roboinvesting.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#7One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
If you bought an actively managed fund 30 years ago, it was literally an index fund with more fees attached. Active managers actually just index, but try hard to obfuscate this fact to justify their high fees. If you dive into their books, they are basically buying the market. I think it begs the question, how active was/is active?
The math is clear, you are statistically unlikely to beat the market.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#8One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
Looks like investor Bill Ackman, famous for shorting the housing market before the bubble burst, had the same theory back in 2016. It's an interesting perspective.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-actually-had-a...
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#9One of the few times Bettridge's Law of Headlines doesn't apply. "Survive" is an extreme word here, but I do see a big issue w/ index funds. Perhaps an unpopular opinion - but I believe index funds will be the next major bubble that cripples the financial system. It's one massive way to persist the same inequality status quo. You know what made Bezos so rich in spite of a company that doesn't make much accounting sen…
If you bought an actively managed fund 30 years ago, it was literally an index fund with more fees attached. Active managers actually just index, but try hard to obfuscate this fact to justify their high fees. If you dive into their books, they are basically buying the market. I think it begs the question, how active was/is active? The math is clear, you are statistically unlikely to beat the market.
Some of them do beat the market. They are also producing returns that are more robust to a downturn. So even if they dont match the S&P performance, in a downturn they dont lose as much as the S&P does. It's difficult to compare index funds to hedge funds, they have different purposes. When the market is always going up, it looks like a scam.
Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
#10The surprise that is coming is that the working class won't tolerate being robbed in the next financial crisis. Working American's had to financially absorb the 2008 Mortgage crisis. 2008 was a direct robbery because Mortgage Orginators KNEW the mortgages would blow up, because their own Underwriting equations said they would. That is why they did fraud on the customer's income levels or worked with politicians to al…
Not enough people felt the pain the last go around. It will be the same this time.