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Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

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Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#1
There have been various side investing discussions in various threads. Here is one straight on for usefulness and clarity.

I realize investing is very case by case, so here's a (I hope relevent) case:

--Assume you have a good sum of money to set aside (and not touch) for three decades.

--The main goal with this money is for long term growth.

--Assume it is enough money where dividing it up at the 1% level makes sense.

--Assume it is enough money where your access to desired investments is possible and makes sense.

--Speak in %s so it easily translates, e.g. I would put x% in commodities.

If I'm missing anything to make this a good question, please clarify.

And if your strategy involves more actively assessing things from time to time, please also include what it tells you to do right now.

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#2
I looked into this awhile back and quickly came to the conclusion, based on the several books I read, that it's silly to try to beat the market long term. "The Intelligent Investor" is the one that laid it out clearly to me. The main point is: the performance of narrow investments (specific stocks) can't be reliably predicted, but the market as a whole tends to grow over time. Therefore, invest in the market as a whole. (== S&P index fund)

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#3
post #2

I looked into this awhile back and quickly came to the conclusion, based on the several books I read, that it's silly to try to beat the market long term. "The Intelligent Investor" is the one that laid it out clearly to me. The main point is: the performance of narrow investments (specific stocks) can't be reliably predicted, but the market as a whole tends to grow over time. Therefore, invest in the market as a who…

I am also a passive investor trying to capture full market returns. However, just investing in stocks exposes one to too much risk with no more return than if you spread your money across many asset classes that move in different directions at any given time.

The Benefits of Low Correlation is a good summary: http://www.indexuniverse.com/component/content/article/6/322...

And here is a summary of the summary: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/Reti...

And here is the highlight of the summary of the summary:

His two-asset portfolio -- 50-50 U.S. large- and small-cap stocks -- produced an annualized internal rate of return of 10.74%. But it lost a deadly 30.8% in its worst year. His seven-asset portfolio -- equal portions of U.S. large- and small-cap stocks, international stocks, U.S. intermediate fixed-income investments, cash, REITs and commodities -- provided an 11.25% return. But the worst-year loss was only 10.2%.

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#4
post #2

I looked into this awhile back and quickly came to the conclusion, based on the several books I read, that it's silly to try to beat the market long term. "The Intelligent Investor" is the one that laid it out clearly to me. The main point is: the performance of narrow investments (specific stocks) can't be reliably predicted, but the market as a whole tends to grow over time. Therefore, invest in the market as a who…

Index funds are the way to go. They are a passive instrument, so you cannot (should not) be actively trading them. When you put money in an index fund, you essentially buy shares of that fund (along with several others). There is a fee attached to every trade, and that fee is consumed by all share holders equally. So most index funds will penalize you for trading those shares actively.

The way I look at it, an index fund (like S&P index fund) is merely a layer of abstraction over trading stocks. But instead of putting all your money in one stock, the index fund divies up your money across many different companies and sectors in the same ratio as the target index. This protects you from major fluctuations in the market, so in the long term you essentially grow at the same rate as the index. On the flip side, if one of those companies sees astronomical growth, you won't see the same growth.

[All: This is my understanding of index funds, so if I am wrong, please, do correct me]

There are several good books in the market if you want to go down this route, including the aforementioned "The Intelligent Investor" [must read] and "A random walk down wall street"

Another book that I surprisingly found to be very good was "Mutual funds for dummies" [http://tinyurl.com/5ulpvw][The other book "Personal finance for dummies" by the same author is a good book too. There is another one [http://tinyurl.com/5wso5z] that is short and sweet to read.

Good luck!

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#5
Generally unless you're a genius in the field (ie, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch etc) you will not beat the market, so what you have to do is join it. Take your money and spread it widely across sectors, indecies and geographical regions - if you spread it well enough, your money will grow at the rate of the global economy which is realistically the most you can hope for.

The second thing is to separate your investments from your speculations. Your investments targeted for long-term growth should be handled as above - spread them widely and sit on them for a long time. Your speculations should be money you can easily afford to lose and you should do with them whatever you instincts tell you. This can be things like buying stock in a particular company or commodity, trading currencies etc.

Finally, you need an excellent book: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#6
The comments so far are espousing passive investment strategy and good asset allocation, which I agree with, but I was looking for something a little more concrete.

So in effort to engender some discussion with hard %s, the following is where I am right now (excluding equity in primary residence). The accuracy (beyond decimal point) is certainly irrelevant, but it came right off a spreadsheet and I left it in because it sums to 100.

US Large Cap: 21.87%

US Mid Cap: 8.35%

US Small Cap: 3.03%

Commodities: 8.47%

Real Estate: 6.26%

International Equities: 7.55%

Emerging Market Equities: 4.63%

Cash: 12.71%

Bonds: 27.13%

The Bonds are in a 10 year ladder. The Cash is in FDIC insured money market accounts. All the rest is in index vehicles.

I'm very interested in any feedback and also what your numbers are.

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#7

Generally unless you're a genius in the field (ie, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch etc) you will not beat the market, so what you have to do is join it. Take your money and spread it widely across sectors, indecies and geographical regions - if you spread it well enough, your money will grow at the rate of the global economy which is realistically the most you can hope for. The second thing is to separate your investments…

You can expect your money to grow at more than the rate of global economic growth if you own equities rather than fixed-income, unless you are arguing that investors are indifferent to risk (which can't be true if they use leverage).

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#9
post #8

I know its cheesy, but I really would rather invest in myself (Education, Business suit etc)

The question assumes you have money set aside in a thirty year time horizon with the goal of long term growth. Or are you saying that you put all your retirement money into your startups?

Also, for the purposes of the question, assume you have enough money where education expenditures don't impact this portion.

Re: Ask YC: How do you invest your money for long term growth?

#10
The benefits of diversification are vastly overstated. Especially over long time periods, the benefits of buying e.g. your 5 best ideas rather than your 10 best ideas vastly outweigh the benefits of having less volatility. If you have time to do the research, do this: find companies that are either the low-cost provider, the most-loved brand, or have special government-protected status in their industry. Examples would be Coca-Cola, Wal Mart, Kraft, etc. Possibly, rule out companies whose managers make irresponsible financial decisions (like over-leveraging at a bank, or buying back stock at high prices like Coca-Cola). When these stocks are cheaper than the broader market, buy them. If one of them rises enough that, after capital gains taxes, you're getting more annual earnings per dollar invested in another company of similar or better business characteristics, sell the expensive one and buy the cheap one.

Basically, your goal should be to have a portfolio you don't have to follow, of companies that will tend to grow their earnings faster than their capital and thus throw off free cash for shareholders. If you can get these at a fair price, your net worth should grow nicely.

However, this is difficult to articulate and extremely hard advice to follow. Perhaps it would be better to put most of your money in an index fund, and do this with the rest of your money long enough to see if it works for you. Sadly, this kind of strategy should be judged over a longer time period (like five years). So, index fund or take your chances.

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