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Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

carnegieendowment.org

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Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#101

Post by omegaworks »

solotronics wrote: post #89
dougmwne wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything you said might be right, I don't know. I think though that your facts are just as political as the facts the western countries use to justify market-based deregulation. I've spent some time near Washington politics. It gave me the opionion that our system is purposefully designed to create gridlock in order to tie up political energies. Political energies that would have otherwise been used to create rapid…

I think there is a natural system of balance found in a true free market. When thinking about longer term ideas such as climate change it is ultimately up to the average desire of the population of comsumers as a whole. Even though this has shortcomings I think it is a more "fair" system because it is just a reflection of the psyche and desire of the people and not a controlling party or politburo. When thinking abou…

>I think there is a natural system of balance found in a true free market.

This is not borne out by the examples we've seen thus far of deregulated markets. It's important to distinguish between a free market and a deregulated market, as pundits often conflate the two so regularly.

The benefits you state, a system aligned with "the psyche and desire of the people" does not, in fact, naturally emerge from deregulated markets. Every entity participating in a market would benefit by being the only participant in that market, so they do things like externalize costs, acquire competitors and leverage network effects to grow their share of that market.

Once that state is achieved, the people hoping to have their various desires met by various participants in the market will have but a single option.

A deregulated market devolves into central control.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#102

Post by yuhong »

Nokinside wrote: post #10

Unlike liberal democracies, Beijing has more room to act in crisis. China has extractive institutions that will ultimately be a growth limiting factor, but I don't see it limiting their crisis responses. * There will be no political gridlock between left and right that can be solved only with half measures. Decisions are done in small groups of 30 people at most, with several hundred people having some influence. * T…

I wonder if part of the problem is that democracies don't really work well when for example Americans care about only themselves. One classic example is NIMBYs in cities. Of course, the debt-based economy only compounds the problem.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#103

Post by phyller »

dougmwne wrote: post #86
Nokinside wrote: post #10

Unlike liberal democracies, Beijing has more room to act in crisis. China has extractive institutions that will ultimately be a growth limiting factor, but I don't see it limiting their crisis responses. * There will be no political gridlock between left and right that can be solved only with half measures. Decisions are done in small groups of 30 people at most, with several hundred people having some influence. * T…

Everything you said might be right, I don't know. I think though that your facts are just as political as the facts the western countries use to justify market-based deregulation. I've spent some time near Washington politics. It gave me the opionion that our system is purposefully designed to create gridlock in order to tie up political energies. Political energies that would have otherwise been used to create rapid…

I partially agree with your analysis, though I think our system is definitely better, just by reasoning about human nature.

An oligarchy is efficient but can be oppressive. Also, the ancient Greeks figured that an oligarchy naturally evolved into an even more efficient government, a dictatorship (see Xi's purges of rivals, and preparing the stage to retain power indefinitely). And a dictatorship eventually always ends up in the hands of an incapable, uncaring, or downright cruel person, leading to misery for everyone.

My understanding is that was why we put so many checks and balances in the US government, we'd rather do things our own complicated way than submit to a tyrant.

The only problem would be if the US system becomes so weak that it was vulnerable to being conquered by a tyrannical system that was at the height of its power.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#104

Post by fspeech »

simonh wrote: post #97
fspeech wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how your stock market example reflects what you are saying. Stock market actions are merely the aggregate of its individual participants and all participants are "voting". This is particularly true in China where small investors actually make up a larger share of stock market activities.

The Chinese government aggressively intervene in the stock market. It’s a long way from a free market, such as by providing incentives and promoting investing leading to bubbles, punishing release of accurate information about stocks and market activity that they don’t want people to know, even information that in western markets would be required to be published as an investors right, and preventing or punishing peo…

I don't think that is how bubble or market in general works. Last year prior to Chinese government's ban of bitcoin exchanges supposedly 90% of bitcoin trades were in China. Yet after the ban and a brief dive in price, bitcoin price continued to soar until early this year.

Anyhow large Chinese techs are all listed in New York or Hongkong. Most other large Chinese companies are dual listed on the mainland and Hongkong.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#105

Post by bitxbit »

nkurz wrote: post #9

I've tried reading this piece a couple times, but despite the bullet points and numbered lists, I can't make any sense out of it. I presume this is because I lack essential background knowledge. Can someone please help explain the context? When he says "China's debt problems", what exactly is he referring to? When he says "there are also only four ways that Beijing can respond", what are they responding to and what i…

It's not you, it's just that he's answering the question by using a macro framework. I don't necessarily agree with his approach because China has unprecedented scale in modern economics.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#106

Post by profalseidol »

solotronics wrote: post #89
dougmwne wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything you said might be right, I don't know. I think though that your facts are just as political as the facts the western countries use to justify market-based deregulation. I've spent some time near Washington politics. It gave me the opionion that our system is purposefully designed to create gridlock in order to tie up political energies. Political energies that would have otherwise been used to create rapid…

I think there is a natural system of balance found in a true free market. When thinking about longer term ideas such as climate change it is ultimately up to the average desire of the population of comsumers as a whole. Even though this has shortcomings I think it is a more "fair" system because it is just a reflection of the psyche and desire of the people and not a controlling party or politburo. When thinking abou…

> I think there is a natural system of balance found in a true free market. When thinking about longer term ideas such as climate change it is ultimately up to the average desire of the population of comsumers as a whole. Even though this has shortcomings I think it is a more "fair" system because it is just a reflection of the psyche and desire of the people and not a controlling party or politburo.

Not when capital is not spread out evenly enough. And even then, larger capital will eventually eat smaller ones and then influence gov't and risk invoking a demagog like Trump (oh we already did huh). These mega corp that are controlled by groups of people called executives will do everything to influence the opinion and desire of the people into their favor. The people barely able to feed themselves will have no time to think about climate change. This is _practically_ the same as a controlling party.

The idea of owning a piece of the earth to yourself (and inherited by your descendant) is ridiculous anyway. Resources of our planet is limited. Usable land is limited. Our population grow by the day exponentially. What happens to those who don't have access to these resources and barely have a livable life? Do you expect them to care about climate change? Now you might call me some labels since this idea is not compatible with capitalism and free market, but I would appreciate a thoughtful reply to my questions in this paragraph.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#107

Post by seanmcdirmid »

fspeech wrote: post #104
simonh wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government aggressively intervene in the stock market. It’s a long way from a free market, such as by providing incentives and promoting investing leading to bubbles, punishing release of accurate information about stocks and market activity that they don’t want people to know, even information that in western markets would be required to be published as an investors right, and preventing or punishing peo…

I don't think that is how bubble or market in general works. Last year prior to Chinese government's ban of bitcoin exchanges supposedly 90% of bitcoin trades were in China. Yet after the ban and a brief dive in price, bitcoin price continued to soar until early this year. Anyhow large Chinese techs are all listed in New York or Hongkong. Most other large Chinese companies are dual listed on the mainland and Hongkong…

Not all large Chinese techs are even listed, let alone abroad. Huawei being a big one.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#108

Post by village-idiot »

andygoo wrote: post #16
tsuabing2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China exceeded their economic growth target for 2018 in April when their economy hit 6.8% growth Wrong. Fake GDP. It's estimated that 1/3 of their GDP is wasteful government spending. Many of their provinces also have confessed to 20-30% fake GDP, thus another 1/3 of their gdp is fake. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/this-is-h... https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin... so…

Why government spending is neccesarily wasteful? I would say consumption of financial services part of GDP which is massive in us is less relevant to layman that vital services government provides

Ever heard of Chinese ghost cities? Completely designed and built cities that could home millions but only hold a thousand or so? That's wasteful government spending.

https://www.businessinsider.com/these-chinese-cities-are-gho...

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#109

Post by NTDF9 »

dougmwne wrote: post #86
Nokinside wrote: post #10

Unlike liberal democracies, Beijing has more room to act in crisis. China has extractive institutions that will ultimately be a growth limiting factor, but I don't see it limiting their crisis responses. * There will be no political gridlock between left and right that can be solved only with half measures. Decisions are done in small groups of 30 people at most, with several hundred people having some influence. * T…

Everything you said might be right, I don't know. I think though that your facts are just as political as the facts the western countries use to justify market-based deregulation. I've spent some time near Washington politics. It gave me the opionion that our system is purposefully designed to create gridlock in order to tie up political energies. Political energies that would have otherwise been used to create rapid…

> Political energies that would have otherwise been used to create rapid change. I think the entire point is to create a relatively stable climate for business investment.

The flip side of this is, once a few bad decisions seep into the legal system, its incredibly hard to take them out. Which sets the country many years back while others develop rapidly.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#110

Post by fspeech »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #107
fspeech wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that is how bubble or market in general works. Last year prior to Chinese government's ban of bitcoin exchanges supposedly 90% of bitcoin trades were in China. Yet after the ban and a brief dive in price, bitcoin price continued to soar until early this year. Anyhow large Chinese techs are all listed in New York or Hongkong. Most other large Chinese companies are dual listed on the mainland and Hongkong…

Not all large Chinese techs are even listed, let alone abroad. Huawei being a big one.

Right I forgot Huawei, which only adds to the evidence that stock market isn't the only mechanism for building capital.
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