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Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

carnegieendowment.org

91–100 of 121 posts

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#91
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China exceeded their economic growth target for 2018 in April when their economy hit 6.8% growth Wrong. Fake GDP. It's estimated that 1/3 of their GDP is wasteful government spending. Many of their provinces also have confessed to 20-30% fake GDP, thus another 1/3 of their gdp is fake. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/this-is-h... https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin... so…

Please don't use HN primarily for nationalistic or ideological battle. We ban accounts that do that, as the guidelines say: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I'm usually 100% in agreement when you chastise inappropriate behavior on HN, but this parent comment, with links to supporting evidence, was extremely informative to me -- even moreso than GP. How is such a reply nationalistic? Ideological?

(Though I acknowledge that it's a newish account... So I put much more credibility on the linked content. Anyway, you deal with this BS way more than anyone else, so major hat tip to you regardless - keep up the good work!)

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same thing happened in Korea and Singapore, however, it isn’t like China was alone in being wrong in how population control can backfire.

Sure, but the point is that while totalitarianism provides enormous scope for rapid action, those actions are not informed by a full and frank public debate and there’s no mechanism for society as a whole to force a change of direction via an election. That means the ruling power, which has huge political capital tied up in their policies cannot be removed, and so tend to cling in to those policies until long, long a…

Not sure how your stock market example reflects what you are saying. Stock market actions are merely the aggregate of its individual participants and all participants are "voting". This is particularly true in China where small investors actually make up a larger share of stock market activities.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#93

I don’t get this article. China exceeded their economic growth target for 2018 in April when their economy hit 6.8% growth. Their wages are steadily increasing. Their internal market is the healthiest of any g20 economy. Investments both internally and internationally are up and their population has little dept. On top of that they haven’t touched retirement age, so they have a lot of leverage there.

I don't know what their "real" gdp growth was, but the larger point is that GDP growth occurred because of an even larger increase in debt. That debt likely went to wasteful/non-productive projects. That isn't healthy or sustainable.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Following this line of thinking, all or even more than all US GDP "growth" is attributable to wasteful medical and educational inflation.

Not all, but a good chunk. Definitely less than half. Somewhere around 18% of current US GDP is healthcare spending [1], growing at around 5% year over year. Education spending is somewhere around 5% of GDP [2]. It's hard to figure out how much actual growth is occurring there since most of the ridiculous increases have been specifically in college, not in K-12 which is the bigger share. Total increase seems to be so…

The Q2 4.2% is too convenient a number to make your point. On average US GDP growth has been around 2% over the last decade: http://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#95
post #92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the point is that while totalitarianism provides enormous scope for rapid action, those actions are not informed by a full and frank public debate and there’s no mechanism for society as a whole to force a change of direction via an election. That means the ruling power, which has huge political capital tied up in their policies cannot be removed, and so tend to cling in to those policies until long, long a…

Not sure how your stock market example reflects what you are saying. Stock market actions are merely the aggregate of its individual participants and all participants are "voting". This is particularly true in China where small investors actually make up a larger share of stock market activities.

The Chinese periodically pumps money into the market to prop it up (then they try to drain it, mostly unsuccessfully). They also encourage patriotic investing by locking up stock sales at tech companies, for example. Finally, the small investors are mostly trying to catch waves from a few whales who have lots of inside information, where many of the whales are actually princelings who are our to make money on fooling the very numerous small investors. Not a healthy market at all.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#96
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how your stock market example reflects what you are saying. Stock market actions are merely the aggregate of its individual participants and all participants are "voting". This is particularly true in China where small investors actually make up a larger share of stock market activities.

The Chinese periodically pumps money into the market to prop it up (then they try to drain it, mostly unsuccessfully). They also encourage patriotic investing by locking up stock sales at tech companies, for example. Finally, the small investors are mostly trying to catch waves from a few whales who have lots of inside information, where many of the whales are actually princelings who are our to make money on fooling…

That may be true but most of the price actions are merely noises. The cataclysmic ones show how mass hysteria can easily form and that is rather independent of the existence of manipulations. The problem is really that too much of capital allocation in China is still done through bank loans. And banks are not particularly good at spotting and adapting to new trends.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#97
post #92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the point is that while totalitarianism provides enormous scope for rapid action, those actions are not informed by a full and frank public debate and there’s no mechanism for society as a whole to force a change of direction via an election. That means the ruling power, which has huge political capital tied up in their policies cannot be removed, and so tend to cling in to those policies until long, long a…

Not sure how your stock market example reflects what you are saying. Stock market actions are merely the aggregate of its individual participants and all participants are "voting". This is particularly true in China where small investors actually make up a larger share of stock market activities.

The Chinese government aggressively intervene in the stock market. It’s a long way from a free market, such as by providing incentives and promoting investing leading to bubbles, punishing release of accurate information about stocks and market activity that they don’t want people to know, even information that in western markets would be required to be published as an investors right, and preventing or punishing people selling during down swings.

As another poster pointed out, how comfortable would you be investing if the government might decide to threaten to punish you if you try to sell?

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#98
post #91
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't use HN primarily for nationalistic or ideological battle. We ban accounts that do that, as the guidelines say: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I'm usually 100% in agreement when you chastise inappropriate behavior on HN, but this parent comment, with links to supporting evidence, was extremely informative to me -- even moreso than GP. How is such a reply nationalistic? Ideological? (Though I acknowledge that it's a newish account... So I put much more credibility on the linked content. Anyway, you deal with this BS way more than anyone else, so major hat ti…

It's been a while since I posted a longer explanation of what we're doing when we do this, so maybe one would be helpful.

The core issue is the word primarily. It's one thing to occasionally comment on the politicized topics that naturally come up on HN. That's what most users do and it's fine. But there's a different class of account that exists primarily to do this, pushing a political or ideological or national agenda. That is what we don't allow, as the site guidelines are careful to say. We have to draw a line somewhere, in order to prevent flamewars from taking over HN entirely, and experience has shown this 'primarily' test to be the best place to draw it.

The reason we draw the line this way is that there is a bimodal distribution of accounts and the two categories behave differently. People in the first group are motivated by intellectual curiosity, so post on a wide range of things and tend to post curious, factual, open-minded comments. People in the second group are fighting a war. That destroys the curiosity HN exists for. Indeed, that's the first thing it destroys, because the point of political battle is not to curiously meander, but to blast enemies. This site is for curious meandering.

This second type of account often comes armed with pre-existing talking points and links, which can look like contributing to good conversation, and sometimes add good information. But their fixation on an agenda and the intensity with which they seek to destroy other views instead of—let's say—dance with them, make their cumulative effect on HN not just negative but toxic.

Figuring out how to moderate this kind of thing without excluding politics altogether (which is undesirable and impossible anyway) is a challenge, and the observable difference between these two kinds of account turns out to be a useful heuristic. So when we notice an account that shows the telltale signs of being agenda-driven and guideline-breaking, we ask them not to do it. We try to explain why, and we ban them if they don't change.

There's an aspect of this that isn't publicly visible. It's not uncommon for people we've banned for abusing HN in this manner to create new accounts to continue doing it. So sometimes, when we bring this issue up with a new user, we're looking at more of a track record than might appear.

None of the above implies that an account is wrong in its views or that the topic at issue is unimportant. On the contrary, it's almost always very important and legitimately intense. That's actually why we have to moderate these forces on the site-in the literal sense of 'moderate'. Otherwise they would dominate everything, which would turn HN into a very different kind of forum. It would also quickly kill it as a place for thoughtful conversation.

More on this at https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme....

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#99
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem for China won't be dealing with private property, it will be dealing with government owned property. Just because the average Joe doesn't get to vote doesn't mean the system isn't geared to preserve the status quo. I think you are quite naive if you think vested interests and political corruption is a smaller problem than having to respect private property.

The political elite is relatively small number of people. When the political power is not widely distributed, you can take care of the elites without hurting the economy. If the top 100,000 power players and their families are shielded from the fallout, how much will that cost? Few $100 billions or so?

If political power is not widely distributed, it seems unlikely that you will have a healthy economy in the first place.

Re: Beijing’s Three Options: Unemployment, Debt, or Wealth Transfers

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If WWII policies seem to be evidence that "tight control of the economy worked just fine to stabilize the system," consider that centralized economic decisions (German war finance, treaty of Versailles, war reparations, Weimar Republic hyperinflation) paved the way for WWII. Early 20th century Europe is an odd example to choose to demonstrate a stable, well-controlled system.

Unless I'm mistaken, I think the point of contention here is whether centralized economic decisions can work sometimes (his point?) versus can never ever work (your point?). And by "work", I do not mean "work absolutely perfectly".

Perhaps centralized economic planning can work, for a period of time.

Five year plans appear historically sketchy.

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