Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#191

Post by whamlastxmas » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:24 PM UTC

matwood wrote: post #94

dnomad wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What kind of PR effort do you need when every CFO you hire keeps leaving? It's really gotten to a point where all the Musk-haters now believe their own bullshit. This post (and many others in HN's bi-weekly anti-Musk thread) is a classic example. Tesla had had a grand total of two CFOs since Musk took over. > Could it be that that person is being pushed to stretch things a bit here and there to make them look bette…

>See, it's easy to ask stupidly leading questions and spout completely baseless speculation. What's more difficult is actually examining the facts and drawing a rational conclusion. In the first quarter of this year, the company lost Morton’s predecessor, Eric Branderiz, and Susan Repo, who was treasurer and vice president of finance. CFO Deepak Ahuja retired in 2015, only to return in 2017 after his successor, Jason…

It doesn't scream financial problems, it screams difficulty. Tesla is under a microscope, it gets lots of criticism, and it's an inherently volatile place to work because it's doing something new and uncharted. These (often) millionaires in these positions don't want to be associated with a potentially failing business and don't have the stomach to deal with the uncertainty. It says more about them than it does about Tesla.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#192

Post by whamlastxmas » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:29 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #7

IMO, they should fire musk, slow down their blue-sky research projects, rip autopilot out of the cars, and just build "boring" luxury electric cars with huge profit margins and rake in cash.

Apple should fire Steve Jobs and go back to selling colorful plastic computers that are more in the price range of their Japanese competitors. And give up on OSX already, Windows has clearly won.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#193

Post by apersona » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:36 PM UTC

compcoffee wrote: post #98

rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you realize how much FUD is disseminated daily in the mainstream media. Take this Reuters article for instance, which has been published and translated by dozens of top newspapers: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler/ele... 3rd paragraph: "The market for upscale electric cars is Tesla’s to lose, with sales of its entry-level Model 3 sedan expected to reach about 50,000 cars this yea…

> What kind of error is that? They've aware of this, they are not correcting. All media who published the report and were made aware of the "mistake" kept it, even though the 50K is already proven wrong. Who cares? What influence do you think this article and that estimate has? "Disinformation"; that's laughable. Tesla and Musk are being sued and investigated for stock manipulation, but you're crying about Reuters be…

> "Disinformation"; that's laughable. Tesla and Musk are being sued and investigated for stock manipulation, but you're crying about Reuters being off on their prediction. Who is showing bias? Where is the outrage?

I never understand how this is a legit argument.

Just because one party shows disinformation doesn't make another party's disinformation right.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#194

Post by api » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:41 PM UTC

rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #107

api wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been an overall bad experience. Here's a rough chronology: (1) Serious and clearly visible body panel alignment issues. They got fixed, but it took a while and Tesla didn't have a loaner car. There was also a scratch on the car when it was delivered. (2) Door handles not extending. This problem occurred multiple times. The first "fix" was to reboot the computer. (3) A whole host of software bugs including consta…

Given that Tesla owners are the most satisfied (cf. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/12/21/tesla-po... ), that implies that the other owners are even more happy with their Tesla that I would have expected. All surveys about panel gaps points to Tesla being above average (expect in the first few cars out of the line, which are generally owned by employees). If your friends' Tesla has serious software bug,…

He showed me pictures. The panel issues were really bad. It wasn't something you had to squint to see. It was visible from a distance. There was also a clearly visible scratch on the delivered vehicle.

Maybe he got a "lemon," but in that case Tesla should have been much more ready to fix or exchange the vehicle instead of dragging their feet and arguing over minutia.

I also question what's happening at Tesla when they even ship a vehicle with such obvious defects to a customer.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#195

Post by martythemaniak » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:48 PM UTC

chollida1 wrote: post #124

martythemaniak wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. >From the outside it looks like Telsa is about going to go into a tough winter like moment. From the outside, it looks like they have a product that's a generation ahead of the competition and is flying off the shelves. > They need to start designing and building out manufacturing facilities for their next car and the help…

> Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified, if you think I've outright lied then please correct me. As your comment stands you didn't actually refute any of my points. Is the Reno factory going to be building cars if not then its irrelevant to the topic of factories to build cars with? The China factor…

> Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified

As others have noted in this thread, the unceasing torrent of negativity around Tesla has made it practically impossible to tell trolls and haters apart from regular folk. So how can I tell from your writing which one you are? Honest question here. Does your writing express doubt, pose questions, use qualifications? Or is it judgemental and prescriptive?

After all, commenting takes time, why would you expect others to invest their time in responding throughtfully to you, when you come across as simply wanting validation for your negativity from the echo chamber?

> The China factory hasn't started yet, so I think I'm on strong footing with this.

You mean they're not building the physical building at the moment? No, but they've signed the agreement with the government, hired people, etc. So they've started on it, and it will make cars. But... that doesn't confirm your pre-existing views, so you have to discard it.

> Tesla has also been cash flow negative for not just two quarters, but almost its entire life

No, you said they have a one year of cash left. That's only at the rate they were spending when building their factory. If they're not spending at that scale, they have years left. You're trying to change your assumptions, while keeping your original views.

> I'm not convinced of that:)

Yes, but have you actually purchased on EV in the last year? I mean, it's really easy to hold any opinion you want when it costs you nothing (actually, here it gets you internet points, because negative denouncements are rewarded handsomely). But what would happen if you had to actually pay tens of thousands of dollars based on your opinion?

I mean, you said they'll have to compete with GM, completely ignoring the reality that they are competing with GM today https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9dm0i2/the_tes...

> I'm looking for actual thoughtful dissent to change my mind

I don't see that at all. I think you just want the echo chamber to confirm your views. How else would you explain looking at the above graph and thinking "oh boy, Tesla's gonna be in big trouble because of GM"?

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#196

Post by kitsunesoba » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:49 PM UTC

chooseaname wrote: post #77

gbear605 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why is Musk (and Bezos with Blue Origin) the only ones who have done so? There are a lot of people who have more money than Musk had when he founded SpaceX and Tesla.

Interest? Look at Bill Gates. He could certainly build rockets, but he'd rather help people solve other, arguably more important, problems. Or Larry Ellison. He'd rather go race boats and play with swords.

I’d argue that opening up a new frontier for society’s restless (space) to relieve the pressure that’s been mounting from the lack of any kind of frontier is as important as anything else. If we keep ignoring that pressure it’s eventually going to have massive destabilizing effects… in fact, I think we’re seeing some of that already.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#197

Post by martythemaniak » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:50 PM UTC

scottkduncan wrote: post #136

fencepost wrote: post #35

As someone who's not obsessively following Tesla, I'm a bit jaded by these. I'm sure there are problems, but what feels like massive PR efforts by the "shorts" has effectively poisoned the well for negative news. As a casual observer I can't tell what's actual bad news and what's well-orchestrated market-manipulation "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE" by people trying to drop the price, and I don't actually care enough about…

"Shorts" didn't cause the CEO to invent a $420/share offer for the company out of whole cloth, nor did they force him to smoke a blunt on video. The mental gymnastics you have to do not see the red flags here, completely the result of the CEO's actions and mismanagement, is something.

He also drank whisky. In California, those are both legal.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#198

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:00 PM UTC

pc86 wrote: post #138

toomuchtodo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> After that he had a range of little annoying problems, many of which were likely software bugs, but then he (actually his GF) experienced something in autopilot mode known on the Tesla forums as "shadow braking" -- the car braking hard on the highway because it seems to see the shadow of an overpass and think it's a wall. This is extremely dangerous. It was on the I-405 (SoCal) going 70-80mph, and such a thing coul…

"If you don't want your Tesla slamming on the brakes on a highway at 80mph, don't buy a Tesla." You must own a lot of Tesla shares to make such a ridiculous statement.

> You must own a lot of Tesla shares

I do, but I also entrust my wife and kids in a Model S. I specifically bought the Model S (a used 75D) for them due to its safety record. That's worth far more to me than any Tesla shares. With that said, my wife is aware under what conditions it is safe to engage Autopilot, and is also aware that she is still the responsible party if an accident happens when it's engaged. She doesn't use her phone, she doesn't not pay attention, she is babysitting the vehicle while at speed and still has final authority.

> to make such a ridiculous statement.

You think the statement is ridiculous. 40,000 people a year die in the US driving due to human decisions. Several friends I attended high school with were killed in car accidents. Loved ones have been killed in car accidents. I don't think my statement is ridiculous in that context. These sorts of efforts are necessary to move the needle on transportation safety. Perfectly happy with my TSLA shares going to zero in the process, as long as progress is made.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#199

Post by whatok » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:01 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #190

whatok wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between overvalued and bankrupt.

That's a solid point, and I guess the stock market is a bad figure to talk about bankruptcy. Instead, we can look at the Bond market for that. Moody's rates Tesla 2025 bonds at Caa1, and today the interest rate on Tesla has risen above 8.8% The bond market certainly is pricing in the risk of default and/or bankruptcy at this point. 9%ish bonds are really bad on a 7-year bond, especially in today's market that's got r…

I work at a hedge fund specializing in corporate credit. No serious market participants think that Tesla is going actually bankrupt but does run the risk of debt restructuring. Bankruptcy vs debt restructuring would happen under very different terms. As a better metric clogged by less noise, Tesla 1yr CDS is pricing in a 12% chance of default while 2yr is 20%. The bonds you mentioned should actually be a lot lower but they had a large retail allocation and are hard to borrow to short.

BTW, you mention the "interest rate" on those bonds when I think you meant yield. Very big difference.

Re: Tesla Accounting Chief, HR Head Resign on the Same Day; Stock Plunges

#200

Post by scottkduncan » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:02 PM UTC

martythemaniak wrote: post #197

scottkduncan wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Shorts" didn't cause the CEO to invent a $420/share offer for the company out of whole cloth, nor did they force him to smoke a blunt on video. The mental gymnastics you have to do not see the red flags here, completely the result of the CEO's actions and mismanagement, is something.

He also drank whisky. In California, those are both legal.

legal != smart