> they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically)
Much less than that actually. At their current burn rate they won't even be making it to the end of this year without either selling enough M3 to generate some real cash, or by raising some new money from the market. Also, they have a lot of debt come due next year (and even more over the following years) while yields are up to over 8%.
However, M3 production numbers are actually looking good now, and they are hitting their targets for the first time. And their cash burn for Q2 came in lower than expected after some cost cutting. So they might be able to turn the corner just in time. Musk has repeatedly stated that the company will not need to raise new money, but had also done that before some previous financing rounds, so the market does not put that much faith in his words at this point.
It all hinges on the M3 now. Can they get production (and sales) numbers to where they need to be in order to become cash flow positive?