Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If your average trade lasts less than 5 minutes, then you can conceivably make money only if you can read 5 minutes into the future (not currently possible), or have tools that allow you get news/information faster than everyone else, analyze that information, and act on it, 5 minutes before everyone else. I can't perfectly read 5 minutes into the future, nor is it necessary. All that is necessary is to have a slig…
Seems like you can automate those technical analysis algorithms that you have and just sit back and rake in the cash
Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
121–130 of 263 posts
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…
FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
So the IRS has no way of validating these numbers (they do require brokers to provide the numbers these days)? Overall I'm just not buying that this story is true, in other words.
What makes you think the operators are giving correct numbers to the IRS, or that the IRS would necessarily detect something like that on a fairly small scale? (I have no idea how any of this works, but I would assume that if they're willing to defraud their own customers they're probably not acting entirely above board on the associated tax paperwork either.)
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#124To play Devil’s Advocate: How is this different from being a market maker? I am presuming that if the customer actually made money, these guys would pay them from their own pocket. Or alternately, assuming zero or low enough transaction costs, if these guys just took the opposite position of their customers for each trade (also known as hedging) in the market, then wouldn't the net positions be exactly the same? Basi…
It is a "technical" crime. There are good reasons to regulate ATSs, and the brokers didn't follow those regulations. Instead of prosecuting the brokers here for an obscure crime like "operating an unregistered ATS", the SEC decided to prosecute them for fraud. Judges know what fraud is and as Matt Levine puts it in other articles, "every financial crime is also securities fraud".
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only way you can consistently make money is by knowing things others do not (e.g., insider trading) or by taking advantage of structural problems or inefficiencies in the trading platform (e.g., high frequency trading). I do believe that insider trading is rampant. I've seen many occasions where a large corporate announcement sends a stock up or down, but hours before, you can see the price of the stock slowly sl…
There's an article recently where a hacker hacked a bunch of journalists and was selling that information to investors on wall street.
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#126How much do you want to make per year? How much do you want to start with? What kind of return do you want each year on the initial investment? Believe it. I do make it consistently.
He is hawking his own service, his bio says it all. Arent there rules against this?
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not joking. I don't need the sophistication, I trade options and I don't need instant orders, or to be near the exchange. I don't need insider information because I can already see what's going to happen with a high probability. You can view my profile, sign up for a trial and see it for yourself. I don't care about fees, taxes, or any of that because it's inconsequential to me.
There’s a classic [0] scam: send 2^12 letters to 2^12 random people. Half say that some stock will go up next week and the other half say it’ll go down. 2^11 of them will be correct [1]. Send those people similar letters the next week, half with one prediction and half with the opposite. Repeat until you have, say, 2^4 people who have seen 8 consecutive correct predictions. Now offer them more predictions at $500 a p…
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Information asymmetry doesn't have to be on insider information.
> Information asymmetry doesn't have to be on insider information. In theory, yes, in practice no.
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned.
> I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned. Your caveat there often swallows the rule. Many bet on the market and make big bucks only to lose multiples of it later.
Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
Today, it's extremely difficult to get information 5 minutes sooner than everyone else without insider trading. You're assuming parent is trading on news, information, or fundamentals. A technical trader wouldn't care about anything you've mentioned.
> You're assuming parent is trading on news, information, or fundamentals. A technical trader wouldn't care about anything you've mentioned. I don't believe it's possible to consistently make money ignoring "news, information, or fundamentals". Otherwise you're just fitting curves to noisy data. If it could work consistently, then you would be able to read the future.