81–90 of 263 posts
How much do you want to make per year? How much do you want to start with? What kind of return do you want each year on the initial investment? Believe it. I do make it consistently.
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I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned.
> I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned. Your caveat there often swallows the rule. Many bet on the market and make big bucks only to lose multiples of it later.
I was a trader at a big bank for many years. The tools and access I had there put me in a different class of trader that very few other firms or individuals can attain. There is such information and technology asymmetry in this business - its not worth trying to day trade as an individual. Buy and hold forever... only way to invest.
I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…
I do believe that insider trading is rampant. I've seen many occasions where a large corporate announcement sends a stock up or down, but hours before, you can see the price of the stock slowly slide in the direction. Obviously a certain amount of that may be random/explainable, but I've seen it a lot and my intuition says more is going on. This also seems relatively easy to quantitatively measure, I'd love to see a real analysis of it.
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You must not be considering the total return of all your wealth just a limited subset. If you started with 10k and earned 300% (138.6% continuously compounded) then after 5 years you will have over $10mm. Wait another 3.3 years and you're a billionaire...
I was simply stating I have a substantially higher return than the pros. I've used that money for other purposes. for instance buying American airlines the day they went bankrupt allowed me to pay off a medical bill for a surprise medical emergency. But in that case it was literally 1000 percent return. I bought a bit of their stock the morning they went bankrupt. AMD is also an incredibly easy one to profit one. Wal…
Good job, you got into the same short-squeeze opportunity everybody else did that morning.
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Nice. You know the market has been in a historic long bull run these past 9 or so years, right?
I trade futures and currencies. Short positions happen about as frequently as long positions. My average trade lasts less than 5 minutes. Macro trends don't really affect my strategy outside of the fact that I tend to watch Fed and ECB news announcements as a way of predicting short term volatility.
Today, it's extremely difficult to get information 5 minutes sooner than everyone else without insider trading. Also, doing such quick analysis can be pretty error-prone, it's not uncommon that bad stories send a stock up and good stories send it down because the price is based on the perception rather than the fundamentals. So even if you have the right information, you may make the wrong bet. I'm sure some are better than others at this, but to make money, you'll need to be better than 50% of everyone else.
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> I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned. Your caveat there often swallows the rule. Many bet on the market and make big bucks only to lose multiples of it later.
Yeah irresponsible people do. But it's not necessary to bet the farm to make a living. Although it's certainly easier to eke a living off a $600k bankroll than a $50k
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I trade futures and currencies. Short positions happen about as frequently as long positions. My average trade lasts less than 5 minutes. Macro trends don't really affect my strategy outside of the fact that I tend to watch Fed and ECB news announcements as a way of predicting short term volatility.
If your average trade lasts less than 5 minutes, then you can conceivably make money only if you can read 5 minutes into the future (not currently possible), or have tools that allow you get news/information faster than everyone else, analyze that information, and act on it, 5 minutes before everyone else. Today, it's extremely difficult to get information 5 minutes sooner than everyone else without insider trading.…
You're assuming parent is trading on news, information, or fundamentals. A technical trader wouldn't care about anything you've mentioned.
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I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…
The only way you can consistently make money is by knowing things others do not (e.g., insider trading) or by taking advantage of structural problems or inefficiencies in the trading platform (e.g., high frequency trading). I do believe that insider trading is rampant. I've seen many occasions where a large corporate announcement sends a stock up or down, but hours before, you can see the price of the stock slowly sl…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was simply stating I have a substantially higher return than the pros. I've used that money for other purposes. for instance buying American airlines the day they went bankrupt allowed me to pay off a medical bill for a surprise medical emergency. But in that case it was literally 1000 percent return. I bought a bit of their stock the morning they went bankrupt. AMD is also an incredibly easy one to profit one. Wal…
>for instance buying American airlines the day they went bankrupt allowed me to pay off a medical bill for a surprise medical emergency. Good job, you got into the same short-squeeze opportunity everybody else did that morning.