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Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

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Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#41
post #36

C'mooon > The IRA won’t make anyone rich. A calculator on the site estimates that if you’re 22 years old and making $14 an hour–saving around $120 a month–you could end up with around $230,000 by the time you’re 65 1. $14 / hour? The median household (yes, I know, household, but wait) income is the highest it's been since at least 1985 [1] at $59k/year. So $14 is definitely a bit lower than "normal". 2. Saving $120/m…

> The IRA won’t make anyone rich. A calculator on the site estimates that if you’re 22 years old and making $14 an hour–saving around $120 a month–you could end up with around $230,000 by the time you’re 65 So no room for 2 years of education or a drop year for health issues or layoffs or travel or starting a risky business?

Look, it's just math. Of course there's room for these things. Learning to consume just a little less than you currently do grants you a ton of flexibility.

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#42
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People used to retire by having a few kids who would take care of them. I prefer shrinking our population, especially as developing countries are rapidly growing.

That won't really help the pension issue–pensions are held up by the expectation of a large working-age population to support current retirees. FWIW, I think people tend to overstate the risks of overpopulation; the Earth could support 10x the current population with a comfortable standard of living, if space and energy usage per person was reduced (which could be helped along by increased urbanization, among other t…

No. We can tax corporate profits. More and more profits come from automation and outsourcing. Just tax it.

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#44
If you turn 65 in 2040 or 2050 or 2060

Some historical perspective: My understanding is that when Social Security was created, the average life expectancy was 67. So offering it for people age 65 was intended as providing for people in extreme old age who had probably worked physically hard their entire lives and were pretty beat up.

I'm not saying we don't have genuine problems here, but this article is bellyaching about, basically, a golden era when the world was relatively briefly unusually comfortable and acting like that was the norm throughout all of history. The reality is that money per se only became common place something like 300 years or so ago. So the very concept of retirement and saving for retirement is relatively new.

This makes it a little hard for me to take this article seriously, so I confess to not reading it in full. Some of the things it gets right: Pensions are going out of style precisely because people are living longer, so pensions wind up being financially unsustainable.

Given that people are living a whole lot longer and are generally in better health at 70 these days than 65 used to be, it isn't really some huge hand-wringing drama that older Americans need to continue working. Instead, it is evidence of how successful we have been in some sense.

This is a good problem to have. We need to make adjustments to the system, but people living longer and this requiring cultural adjustments isn't some giant tragedy.

Retirement for, say, two decades or whatever is hardly some historical and long standing human norm. It's really rather out of touch with reality to act like it ever was.

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#45
Per https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt#income; the lower income earners in the US have almost 10% of their income in credit card debt. Per https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-shee... 12 million people spend $9 billion in payday loan fees and people spend billions of dollars each year playing the lottery. Poor financial decisions and money management is definitely playing a role in this as well.

We really need to include suggestions for adding programs and laws for encouraging saving, removing predatory lending, and incentivizing responsible spending in articles like these. There is too much focus on consumer spending and not enough on household stability and having money in the bank for emergencies.

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#46
post #26
post #2

In Australia the official retirement age when you can start to receive a pension (or access your own retirement money without penalties) was recently moved up to 67. The new Prime Minister just announced he won't raise it to 70, which was on the table. I think it's clear that's just a sign of things to come.

What is lost in the discussion of retirement ages being bumped is that life expectancy has grown by two decades since the retirement age was introduced in the USA in 1935 [0][1][2]. The retirement age was originally past the point where most people died. [0]: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-ret... [1]: http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se…

I know several people (i.e. 3 of my grandparents) who lived jobless that long or longer. At least half of their retirement years, they were physically and mentally incapable of holding their previous jobs, or even the most menial unskilled jobs.

One had half his body paralyzed by a stroke, and you couldn't really tell how much understanding he had of the world around him when he was alert. The other two had forms of alzheimer's that, eventually, left them occasionally speaking czech instead of english (they moved to the USA as children) and not recognizing their own children. The first sign they needed full-time care was when we caught one of them overdosing on ibuprofin- get a headache, take some, forget, take more, repeat. That, and leaving the gas stove on for hours.

I fully agree that the retirement age should start increasing, but there's definitely a point of diminishing returns. We may be living longer as a whole, but our physiology hasn't caught up enough to trust that those extra years can be spent making economically valuable contributions to society.

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#47

C'mooon > The IRA won’t make anyone rich. A calculator on the site estimates that if you’re 22 years old and making $14 an hour–saving around $120 a month–you could end up with around $230,000 by the time you’re 65 1. $14 / hour? The median household (yes, I know, household, but wait) income is the highest it's been since at least 1985 [1] at $59k/year. So $14 is definitely a bit lower than "normal". 2. Saving $120/m…

$30,000/year 43 years from now will be sub-poverty living. Based on prior inflation, you're looking at $6,600/year

These are inflation-adjusted numbers. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#48
post #26
post #2

In Australia the official retirement age when you can start to receive a pension (or access your own retirement money without penalties) was recently moved up to 67. The new Prime Minister just announced he won't raise it to 70, which was on the table. I think it's clear that's just a sign of things to come.

What is lost in the discussion of retirement ages being bumped is that life expectancy has grown by two decades since the retirement age was introduced in the USA in 1935 [0][1][2]. The retirement age was originally past the point where most people died. [0]: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-ret... [1]: http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se…

I'd buy that if not for the massive increase in year-over-year productivity that we as a society get from better technology. If that's not going toward spending less time working, where is it going? And is that where it should go?

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#49
post #26
post #2

In Australia the official retirement age when you can start to receive a pension (or access your own retirement money without penalties) was recently moved up to 67. The new Prime Minister just announced he won't raise it to 70, which was on the table. I think it's clear that's just a sign of things to come.

What is lost in the discussion of retirement ages being bumped is that life expectancy has grown by two decades since the retirement age was introduced in the USA in 1935 [0][1][2]. The retirement age was originally past the point where most people died. [0]: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-ret... [1]: http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se…

Except what happens when you increase the same retirement age for farmers, construction workers, software developers, and teachers? The software developers and the teachers work more with their minds than with their bodies. The farmers and construction workers (putting aside the possibility that their age makes them less productive in physical labor and less likely to find jobs in their fields) would be at much higher risk for onsite injury, and who’s going to pay for that?

Re: Why work has failed us: Because no one can afford to retire anymore

#50
post #5

no millennials expect to see a dime of social security income (whether or not this is justified is another question), nor do they have any plans to retire because the prospect of having enough money to do so is simply unrealistic for them. i am not the only one that has put their income, expenses, and savings rate into one of those "financial independence" calculators ( http://mustachecalc.com/#/calcs/time-to-fi ). i…

Gonna insert my anecdata here. "no millennials" is just wrong. I'm a millennial (Though just barely, born in '82), and I fully expect to retire by 67, possibly by 65, and if markets do well, maybe even 62, and I didn't even begin saving for retirement until 3 years ago. I always question how many millennials complaining about student loan debt either didn't actually finish their degree, or they got a degree that does…

> they got a degree that doesn't lead to gainful employment due to lack of research before choosing a major, or they let themselves be bullshitted by some university's marketing and wayyyyy overpaid for their degree.

Correct. But this happens because not everyone is privileged enough to get good advice. The vast majority of 18 year olds know nothing, they've seen none of the world, and can only rely on the little knowledge they've acquired up to that point in their life. Lots of people go into college thinking "gee 100k loan, 50k loan, will be fine when I graduate and get a job."

Capitalism is a system in which risk takers are rewarded / punished based on how their risky moves pan out. Unfortunately that means people with safety nets / more leeway to take risks (more wealthy) get more dice rolls and thus increase their wealth, vs if you're poor, you either stay poor, or in many cases if you look at what society's advice has been it's "go to college, a college degree means you'll make so much more money and even at the cost of $200k in debt will be worth it" It's one thing to say "capitalism is how things fall naturally." It's another to say "this is perfect and how it should work and nothing's broken, everyone gets their just desserts, capitalism is the only way, move along." I'm not saying that this is actually what you're trying to convey, but the anecdote you inserted here definitely rings of this (common) sentiment.

> Certainly millennials have the deck stacked against them, but with proper planning, they can be successful.

This is pretty bleak. A chance at success is true in any system. That the deck is stacked is the only salient point.

I'll see your anecdote and raise you one more: talk to a few people who are the first to get college degrees in their family. I suspect you'll find that the vast majority of their parents offered no or even counter-productive advice when it comes to what field to study, or that it matters. Especially if the school they ended up at is one like Harvard/Stanford; there's some pretty good writing about what it's like to be very poor at those schools.

The gap is widening between rich and poor, straight-up capitalism exacerbates those effects, and I don't think it's easy to argue that's a good thing.

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