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A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

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Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#31

Post by subway »

peterburkimsher wrote: post #5

When I was in my final year of high school, Coca-cola was giving away an iPod Nano to lucky winners who entered codes from plastic bottle caps or glass bottle labels. An iPod was given away once per day, except Monday, when they were given out once per hour. I was competing against the rest of Switzerland. Each code had to be entered on a website, earning 0, 5, 10, 20 or 50 points. You could then choose how many poin…

My father was a garbage man when I grew up in the late 80s/early 90s and his crew stayed on top of pretty much any points promotion they found. This meant I grew up riding Pepsi bicycles, listening to Marlboro boomboxes.

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#32

Post by syntaxing »

peterburkimsher wrote: post #5

When I was in my final year of high school, Coca-cola was giving away an iPod Nano to lucky winners who entered codes from plastic bottle caps or glass bottle labels. An iPod was given away once per day, except Monday, when they were given out once per hour. I was competing against the rest of Switzerland. Each code had to be entered on a website, earning 0, 5, 10, 20 or 50 points. You could then choose how many poin…

I totally hear you at the last part. I'm in the US with a M.S. in Mechanical Engineering with continuous learning and training (either in programming or something MechE related like GD&T and CAD training). But I feel like my peers are totally blowing me out of the water in terms of professional growth especially those not in the MechE field. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, shrug.

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#33

Post by zwaps »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #2

AFAICT, many jackpot style lotteries get an expected value (EV) above 1 when the jackpots get big. They're set up so their average EV is 0.4 - 0.5, but when a jackpot isn't won, the payout is under 0.1. String a bunch of those together in a row, and the EV creeps above 1.0. The calculations are easy to do. You do need to estimate the number of people who buy the tickets so you can calculate the odds of sharing the ja…

y'all really need to read this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#34

Post by astura »

gesman wrote: post #11

Virginia Lottery director Ken Thorson pled to the press. “It is an opportunity for the common man to spend a small sum for the possibility of a higher prize… We never anticipated a group trying to make such a large purchase.” Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud.

No, not necessarily: https://thetech.com/2012/08/01/cashwinfall-v132-n30

Specifically https://www.mass.gov/files/documents/2016/08/vv/lottery-cash...

>Based on the documents reviewed by the OIG and the interviews described above, I have concluded that Cash WinFall was a financial success for the Lottery . It generated about $300 million in ticket sales, with nearly $120 million of that going to Lottery operations and the pool of funds distributed to cities and towns. The high -volume bettors were a financial boon to the Lottery, collectively buying roughly $2 million in tickets for a typical roll -down drawing – 40 percent of which the Lottery would keep to redistribute to cities and towns. Cash WinFall was designed to attract a huge influx of betting by distributing a windfall to bettors whenever the jackpot reached $2 million. The emergence of individuals and groups buying large volumes of tickets was legal and financially advantageous to the Lottery . As long as the Lottery announced to the public an impending $2 million jackpot that would likely trigger a roll -down, an ordinary bettor buying a single ticket or any number of tickets was not disadvantaged by high- volume betting. In short, no one’s odds of having a winning ticket were affect ed by high- volume betting. Small bettors enjoyed the same odds as high- volume bettors. When the jackpot hit the roll -down threshold, Cash WinFall became a good bet for everyone, not just the big -time bettors . However, the unique structure of the game created unprecedented enforcement challenges for the Lottery.

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#35

Post by mamon »

kbenson wrote: post #27
gesman wrote: post #11

Virginia Lottery director Ken Thorson pled to the press. “It is an opportunity for the common man to spend a small sum for the possibility of a higher prize… We never anticipated a group trying to make such a large purchase.” Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud.

> Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud. There's a lot of negations in there, I'm not sure if I'm reading it incorrectly, or you have one too many, but is sounds like you're saying that corporate lawyers and government will always maintain that a loophole in a business model is fraud?

Exactly, because they want business model to benefit them, not customers.

Think about casinos banning players for counting cards in Black Jack: the only reasonable strategy of playing the game is considered illegal.

In other words - you are welcome to play if you are bad at it, but once you get good you are considered "fraud"

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#37

Post by kbenson »

mamon wrote: post #35
kbenson wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud. There's a lot of negations in there, I'm not sure if I'm reading it incorrectly, or you have one too many, but is sounds like you're saying that corporate lawyers and government will always maintain that a loophole in a business model is fraud?

Exactly, because they want business model to benefit them, not customers. Think about casinos banning players for counting cards in Black Jack: the only reasonable strategy of playing the game is considered illegal. In other words - you are welcome to play if you are bad at it, but once you get good you are considered "fraud"

Card counting is generally legal in the US as long as it's done with the mind, and not an external device[1]. That said, it's usually against casino rules, so they will make you leave if they suspect it, and possibly put your face on the internal list they have of known card counters if you do it enough or win enough.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting#Legal_status

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#38

Post by GFischer »

zwaps wrote: post #33
bryanlarsen wrote: post #2

AFAICT, many jackpot style lotteries get an expected value (EV) above 1 when the jackpots get big. They're set up so their average EV is 0.4 - 0.5, but when a jackpot isn't won, the payout is under 0.1. String a bunch of those together in a row, and the EV creeps above 1.0. The calculations are easy to do. You do need to estimate the number of people who buy the tickets so you can calculate the odds of sharing the ja…

y'all really need to read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox

Very interesting.

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#39

Post by a1369209993 »

kbenson wrote: post #27
gesman wrote: post #11

Virginia Lottery director Ken Thorson pled to the press. “It is an opportunity for the common man to spend a small sum for the possibility of a higher prize… We never anticipated a group trying to make such a large purchase.” Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud.

> Neither corporate lawyers nor government would ever acknowledge that loophole in a business models does not necessarily equals to fraud. There's a lot of negations in there, I'm not sure if I'm reading it incorrectly, or you have one too many, but is sounds like you're saying that corporate lawyers and government will always maintain that a loophole in a business model is fraud?

Yes, that's correct. (It's not actually literally always, even in cases like this, but "always" makes a pretty good aproximation in practice.)

Re: A rogue Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#40

Post by peterburkimsher »

themodelplumber wrote: post #22
peterburkimsher wrote: post #5

When I was in my final year of high school, Coca-cola was giving away an iPod Nano to lucky winners who entered codes from plastic bottle caps or glass bottle labels. An iPod was given away once per day, except Monday, when they were given out once per hour. I was competing against the rest of Switzerland. Each code had to be entered on a website, earning 0, 5, 10, 20 or 50 points. You could then choose how many poin…

I have to wonder--given those impressive experiences, could you find a way to produce the resources you need without needing a job? From reading about your obvious gifts here, I would guess that if you had a list of criteria like how much you need to earn, and whatever other resources you require, you could figure out a clever way to meet those criteria. Job or no job.

I don't know why this is getting downvotes - entrepreneurship is something I've considered. It doesn't help me get a visa though.

I tried emailing computer repair shops asking them to advertise my data migration services - using an Apple II to copy off 5.25" floppies, a Mac LC to read DD floppies, and a PowerBook G3 to read SCSI and JAZ disks. Unfortunately, I only got one reply that asked to see a poster before they'd even discuss it with management.

I also tried I tried contacting companies via Seek and TradeMe. Most expect me to already have a work visa. I asked recruiters for help. I put side projects here on Hacker News to try to get attention. I asked friends who I worked with at Fisher & Paykel Healthcare when I was there before. I found random people on Github and offered to work for free on open-source projects just to get an introduction. Nothing has worked. The only interview I had was from an Australian company. Now I'm spamming everyone on the Accredited Employers list who has an email address on their website. I'm willing to take whatever I can get now, wherever that might be.

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