To me, the importance of tests are a function of the consequence of failure and the likelihood that failure will happen. It's a question of hazard and risk.
One thing to realize is that code that lasts longer is more likely to fail because the people and libraries that support it are prone to change and assumptions can break. So risk goes up over time.
The other thing to realize is that code that's part of a growing product is going to impact more people if it fails. There might be only 400 users today, but 40k three years from now. So hazard goes up over time.
When I heard the technical debt arguments I try to triage them into "grows with the company" vs "doesn't grow with the company" so I can figure out what to accept as debt and what to pay. A complex deploy infrastructure doesn't scale. Just SSHing into a box and doing the deploy manually is just as fine for 100 users as it is for 1000. But tests do. So I write lots of tests; especially for ACL and I punt on the infrastructure stuff until I absolutely need to.
Note that this leaves aside the entire argument over whether tests slow stuff down. I think that on average they make refactors easier and features slower, so for the projects I'm on it's a wash. But even if I grant the point my conclusion wouldn't change. Tests are good.