Is the Lean Startup Dead? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#221

Post by owens99 » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 2:57 AM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #147

AndrewWarner wrote: post #64

The problem I see with the Lean Startup is that Eric Ries isn’t actively promoting, defending and explaining it. On Mixergy, I interview founders who try to make their bones or get attention for their messages by disagreeing with the Lean approach. Eric doesn’t debate, correct or engage with them. So they get to make statements without anyone credible taking them on. Listen to my latest interview it’s Rand Fishkin an…

I think the core problem here is (lack of) consulting dollars. The Agile movement got huge in part because a lot of its proponents could make good money promoting it. E.g., the MLM scheme that is Scrum certification. Or the many consultants, some good and some bad, who made bank teaching it to people. (I did that for a while.) This was also the death of what I think of as "real Agile" because the great bulk of consul…

Hey William. I also think one of the big mistakes is that Eric trademarked Lean Startup. Check out the book, Starfish and the Spider. The way to kill a grassroots movement is to centralize the power and then it dies with the center.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#222

Post by owens99 » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 3:03 AM UTC

kesor wrote: post #122

pnenp wrote: post #112

Calling a popular term "dead" is certainly a good way to attract clicks. And sure, when money is cheap and you have $2B to spend, you can afford to throw much bigger Spaghetti at the wall. But Lean defines a startup as a project under extreme uncertainty. Commercial video streaming sites exist, the only thing that seems to be new about the example in the article is the video length. I would not consider this an envir…

You do realize that Steve practically invented the term, right?

Eric invented the term for Lean. Steve invented Customer Development. Both have different definitions of what a startup is. Extreme uncertainty is part of Eric's definition, not Steve's.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#223

Post by codesushi42 » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 3:30 AM UTC

owens99 wrote: post #219

bborud wrote: post #162

A movement fueled by a book promoter with no notable track record of success for what he is preaching? Yeah, it was a fad. To be fair, Ries stole a lot of nice bits from different schools of thought. There's stuff his books that actually works. But you would have to be soft in the head to think that his book represented wisdom. In fact, wisdom does not come from a book – it comes from reading a lot of books, making a…

Eric Ries was Co-Founder and CTO of IMVU which had 4 million active users and $40M in annual revenue at one point. I assume you knew that and just felt like bashing him without adding any nuance to your point. That's a bad habit and you shouldn't do it.

Speak for yourself. It looks like your startup, Javelin, is built entirely on spinning the Lean Startup methodology with "All-in-one Lean Startup and Customer Development software".

I assume you knew that and just felt like defending him without adding any nuance to your point. That's a bad habit and you shouldn't do it.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#224

Post by InclinedPlane » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 3:31 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #184

salt-licker wrote: post #146

Overfunding is an existential risk for startups. Scaling a team before finding PMF seems like a blunder in most circumstances. Instead of setting your best engineers to work creating the best product, they're busy recruiting and dealing with company growing pains from the get-go. The mythical man-month and scarcity of great people combine to diminish your returns on this hiring. Furthermore, battleships don't turn on…

current business model - $50M (pretty lean by today standards) VC investment with ratchet (it is the key element here) to $150M, do something SaaS-y and hire 50-100 people, in a 1-2 years if it isn't becoming a unicorn then sell it at least for $150M+ (a crowd of 50-100 engineers plus whatever they spent these 1-2 years on) to one of a BigCo with FOMO syndrome wrt. latest tech trend. Tripling money in 1-2 years is no…

Don't forget the acquihire aspect as well as BigCo FOMO.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#225

Post by ehnto » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 3:39 AM UTC

codesushi42 wrote: post #223

owens99 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eric Ries was Co-Founder and CTO of IMVU which had 4 million active users and $40M in annual revenue at one point. I assume you knew that and just felt like bashing him without adding any nuance to your point. That's a bad habit and you shouldn't do it.

Speak for yourself. It looks like your startup, Javelin, is built entirely on spinning the Lean Startup methodology with "All-in-one Lean Startup and Customer Development software". I assume you knew that and just felt like defending him without adding any nuance to your point. That's a bad habit and you shouldn't do it.

You have done it again. Don't bash the person, make a solid argument against their argument.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#226

Post by jkarneges » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 4:04 AM UTC

normo12 wrote: post #41

How much equity do you need to give away to get VC money for an unproven business idea? Is there a ballpark figure? I heard like $100k for 20% or something but I guess that's more like angel investing? What's the minimum amount of work you need to do before getting money with no track record as a founder?

Pre-seed/seed VC is primarily about team pedigree and familiarity. If you want to do the minimum work in order to fundraise for a new startup, you and/or your co-founders need to be somewhat successful already (career, past ventures) or be personally close to people with money. This, in addition to having a good idea and plausible large market story. But the main thing to know is team comes first. And then you could maybe do $1M for 20%.

I'm not sure how a 100K-for-20% situation could happen. Maybe a friend or family member acting as an angel. Any VC that trusts the team would invest more and/or tolerate higher valuations.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#227

Post by conductr » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 5:04 AM UTC

owens99 wrote: post #218

If there's no product/market fit, too much capital is a death sentence. If they don't go out of business in a giant explosion, NewTV surely won't build anything innovative or disrupt anyone. Too much pressure and too many expectations at the wrong time/place.

Product is all that matters. And I'm not talking about the app. If they spend that cash generating quality video content, it is proven people will talk about it and will pay a subscription. So I think this investment speaks to the confidence that this guy can execute on this vision and that the market is receptive to this format, which it will be if done right. Also, if modestly successful there are plenty of Big's who would acquire. Knowing nothing of the players and how they execute, this actually passes the sniff test more than most and I'd say it sounds like it could be a winner.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#228

Post by jondubois » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 8:41 AM UTC

WalterSear wrote: post #169

jondubois wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Venture capital has corrupted the tech industry to its core. The VC cash machine has brought us nothing except short term thinking, get-rich-quick schemes, social manipulation, herd mentality, idol-worship, media corruption and corporate growth. I look forward to the next tech bubble. I hope they all get wiped out.

Ill winds blow no-one any good

If they all get wiped out, it will be very good for me personally.

Firstly, I will enjoy watching them fail. It will make me happy intrinsically. If I lose my software engineer job and have to work as a janitor for a while, it would be totally worth it.

Secondly, the subsequent failure of their portfolio companies will free up a huge amount of marketshare in many industries; some of which I will be able to capture with my own side project until I can afford quit my janitor day job.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#229

Post by megaman8 » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 3:58 PM UTC

s73v3r_ wrote: post #176

megaman8 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When equity and total compensation go down that's a sign of oversupply of talent, not undersupply.

That's not what I'm talking about, here. The number of shares isn't necessarily going down. Its the crappy way that most startups handle the awards and the outstanding shares, making it so that the only people who actually get anything out of them are the founders and the investors.

Yes, when your probability of getting any value out of shares goes down, that's tantamount to a reduction in compensation.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#230

Post by s73v3r_ » Thu, Sep 06, 2018, 4:28 PM UTC

megaman8 wrote: post #229

s73v3r_ wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I'm talking about, here. The number of shares isn't necessarily going down. Its the crappy way that most startups handle the awards and the outstanding shares, making it so that the only people who actually get anything out of them are the founders and the investors.

Yes, when your probability of getting any value out of shares goes down, that's tantamount to a reduction in compensation.

Yes it is, which is why most talented engineers are avoiding startups, and instead going to the big companies, where they can get paid.