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Is the Lean Startup Dead?

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Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#181

I think the problem with Lean today is that everybody knows about it. Starting a startup in 2002-2005 was hard , just the mechanics of it. Incorporating took several thousand dollars of lawyer time; there was no Clerky, and online LLC-generators were largely unknown. Accepting payments meant getting a merchant account with a CC; no Stripe, Square, or other payment processors. Payroll meant dealing with ADP or PayChex…

So, it seems the methodolgy worked, right?

It prevented you from wasting time on a product that has no market.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#182

You don't have to follow SV stereotypes The lean startup is alive in well in most entrepreneurial ventures. Starting a food truck? Grocery store? Custom t-shirts? Indie video game? Small focused SaaS? The echo chamber is real. "I looked outside and saw no lean startups, its dead!"

The article (and most of HN) refer to the local Silicon Valley jargon definiton of the word "startup": a company that is meant to grow extremely fast through the use of new technology. It's not a synonym for any entreprenurial venture. What you're talking about is locally called a "lifestyle business" (not a "startup") -- a small business that can provide a comfortable living for the founder and a few employees, but…

Those aren't "lean" either! "Lean" means starting your business before you have a product, marketing-driven development, and fumbling around chasing customers until you find something they want to buy, and then building it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lean_Startup

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#183
post #37

I wish it wasn't so but I do think to the degree you can declare something dead the lean startup is. The problem is that lean startups requires a number of things that aren't accessible anymore. A) Maybe the most important is time. You need time in a good environment to actually develop something. Which has become a lot more costly. B) Large companies are controlling more areas than ever. People often wary of regulat…

I would say B is right on the money. But, A and C. I don't see it. There's a vast oversupply of time and talent. Just look at producthunt. The ratio of attempts to successes is enormously staggering. This indicates a huge vast amount of talent and time. The biggest problem is lack of opportunity: due partially to incumbents, regulation, etc.

I don't know. I think things like producthunt is the long tail. It is the people who don't have time in a good environment or access to talent so they do whatever they can instead.

And I don't intend that to be an elitist statement. It is like the difference between playing an instrument and being in a band. You might be better by yourself, but it really the ecosystem that is going to take you to another level in terms of success. I think that sort of ecosystem is harder than ever to access. Especially with the rise in cost of education and housing. It is hard to start a software band these days.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#184

Overfunding is an existential risk for startups. Scaling a team before finding PMF seems like a blunder in most circumstances. Instead of setting your best engineers to work creating the best product, they're busy recruiting and dealing with company growing pains from the get-go. The mythical man-month and scarcity of great people combine to diminish your returns on this hiring. Furthermore, battleships don't turn on…

current business model - $50M (pretty lean by today standards) VC investment with ratchet (it is the key element here) to $150M, do something SaaS-y and hire 50-100 people, in a 1-2 years if it isn't becoming a unicorn then sell it at least for $150M+ (a crowd of 50-100 engineers plus whatever they spent these 1-2 years on) to one of a BigCo with FOMO syndrome wrt. latest tech trend. Tripling money in 1-2 years is not a failure, it is more like SV equivalent of break-even, and it keeps you in the game of unicorn hunting.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#185

I think the problem with Lean today is that everybody knows about it. Starting a startup in 2002-2005 was hard , just the mechanics of it. Incorporating took several thousand dollars of lawyer time; there was no Clerky, and online LLC-generators were largely unknown. Accepting payments meant getting a merchant account with a CC; no Stripe, Square, or other payment processors. Payroll meant dealing with ADP or PayChex…

So, it seems the methodolgy worked, right? It prevented you from wasting time on a product that has no market.

Yep, you could argue that finding out after 2 months that an idea won't work is preferable to wasting 2 years on it. 'Course, then I went and repeated the process 8 more times, then decided that if there are no untapped market areas that can be filled by existing technology, it's time to spend 2 years inventing new technology. It remains to be seen whether that's a waste or not.

At some point you also have to apply the same logic to methodologies that you apply to ideas, though. The point of the Lean Startup methodology is to avoid wasting time implementing ideas that won't work so you can find a scalable, sustainable business model quicker. If your goal is to found a startup and all experience is that the Lean Startup methodology, in 2018, does not provide a scalable, sustainable way to do that, then you should ditch the methodology. Chances are you'll have to do your own methodology invention, though, because once a scalable, sustainable way to get rich becomes commonly known, it ceases to be sustainable.

(See also Bitcoin, which was a great way to get rich when nobody considered it a way to get rich, and then became a great way to become poor when everybody was certain it would make them rich.)

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#186
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A) Maybe the most important is time. You need time in a good environment to actually develop something. Which has become a lot more costly. Why do you think that is? I'm not sure what you're referring to exactly. >B) Large companies are controlling more areas than ever. People often wary of regulation as a barrier, but as time goes by the market participants creates their own barriers. Many areas are just harder to…

> That one definitely sounds true to me, the complexity of modern software definitely makes it harder to be competitive with big shops. As software professionals, this is a problem of our own making. Nobody is asking for software to be complex. Users don’t want complexity. Development companies don’t want costly complexity. Software developers don’t even want complexity. Who has sat down at the start of a project and…

The reason complexity exists is because everyone wants a different simple thing. Then, having attained the simple thing, they want another simple thing.

Complex systems evolve from simple systems. One reason we keep winding up with new complex systems is because of folks saying "it's too complex, let's start over without all these bullshit layers and code simply", where "bullshit layers" and "simply" are variables set by the prevailing environment.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#187

"It’s a response to scarce capital, and when that constraint is loosened, it’s worth considering whether other approaches are superior. With enough cash in the bank, Katzenberg can afford to create content, sign distribution deals, and see if consumers watch." There are two main thoughts from this that occurred to me: 1. There are very few Katzenbergs out there, so him personally raising that money is not surprising.…

Lol: you are not Katzenberg. Neither am I.

Good points. Good post.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#189

Overfunding is an existential risk for startups. Scaling a team before finding PMF seems like a blunder in most circumstances. Instead of setting your best engineers to work creating the best product, they're busy recruiting and dealing with company growing pains from the get-go. The mythical man-month and scarcity of great people combine to diminish your returns on this hiring. Furthermore, battleships don't turn on…

Could you define PMF for me please?

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#190

Overfunding is an existential risk for startups. Scaling a team before finding PMF seems like a blunder in most circumstances. Instead of setting your best engineers to work creating the best product, they're busy recruiting and dealing with company growing pains from the get-go. The mythical man-month and scarcity of great people combine to diminish your returns on this hiring. Furthermore, battleships don't turn on…

Could you define PMF for me please?

I'm assuming we're referring to product-market-fit in this context (not some stats jargon)
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