Live data from Hacker News

How to Make a Big Decision

nytimes.com

41–50 of 97 posts

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#41
For all big decisions I always end up using Socratic questioning. It never fails. It's like a pros / cons list but on steroids.

I wrote about it once in the context of using it to potentially learn a new technology, but it applies to everything.

You can check that out at https://nickjanetakis.com/blog/would-socrates-use-docker-tod...

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#42
In the past year I have worked on a side project web application that provides a tool for managing and calculating a multi-factor value assessment for major decisions. The twist is that it collects the assessments of each decision option against the decision factors from whatever advisers or stakeholders you the decision master invite to participate. During collection of the assessments each person is also invited to indicate how confident they are about each assessment and to add a qualitative comment as well.

In particular I have thought of corporation using this as a way to gather input from all the persons that interview a candidate for a job.

Anyone on this thread interested in seeing a demo?

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#43
post #42

In the past year I have worked on a side project web application that provides a tool for managing and calculating a multi-factor value assessment for major decisions. The twist is that it collects the assessments of each decision option against the decision factors from whatever advisers or stakeholders you the decision master invite to participate. During collection of the assessments each person is also invited to…

Yes! Link please

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#44
post #33
post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

It's funny how these tricks really do work, where you can skip the deliberation and go right to the decision you've already subconsciously made. Another similar one is to flip a coin and see if you're disappointed in the outcome or not (or alternatively, think about which coin outcome you're hoping for before you look at the result).

There's also another variant of coin-flipping: if you're agonizing over choice between option A and option B, it means that their costs and benefits roughly cancel out - so you're wasting time deliberating, and may as well toss a coin and be done with it.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#45
There are a couple of related topics:

1) Complex decision making in stressful situations. When you are under stress, you won't be thinking properly or have time to weigh all the pros and cons. However, you can plan ahead and consider what you would do under particular circumstances. Having a plan means you can act, right away.

2) Avoiding taking premature decisions. This helps you avoid the stress and distractions that come with deciding things that are not immediately relevant and frees you up to focus on more urgent things. Deal with it when you need to and when you have all relevant facts but no sooner.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#46
post #42

In the past year I have worked on a side project web application that provides a tool for managing and calculating a multi-factor value assessment for major decisions. The twist is that it collects the assessments of each decision option against the decision factors from whatever advisers or stakeholders you the decision master invite to participate. During collection of the assessments each person is also invited to…

Yes! Link please

It is still rough around the edges but I will see if I can get it deployed in the next week or so. I will let you know when it is up.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#47
post #4

The Freakonomics guys did a paper on this. Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change. Their experiment was based on coin flips and self-reported happiness, but basically those who made the big change after the coin told them to reported being substantially happier, and if you dive into the data, you'll see that those that went with the biggest decisions (quit a job, get married) saw a double dig…

Is that really your takeaway from the paper? It depends on what the change is. Look more closely at the sixth column of Table 3 in your linked paper. If the question is "Should I get engaged?" or "Should I have kids?", the facts are in, and the answer is no. You can't just say a blanket statement that all change is to the good.

With standard errors much larger than the estimate, I.e. indistinguishable from zero.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#48
post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

But this is exactly the fallacy described in the article where you only really explore your own biased solution. The article gives an alternative way of exploring more potential solutions instead of going for the one thing that feels right at the moment.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#49
post #34
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny how these tricks really do work, where you can skip the deliberation and go right to the decision you've already subconsciously made. Another similar one is to flip a coin and see if you're disappointed in the outcome or not (or alternatively, think about which coin outcome you're hoping for before you look at the result).

Yes the coin thing is really good. If you want to flip again, then you know what option you prefer.

I always give myself five minutes in which I can flip the coin as many times as I like, but at the end of that I have to go with the face that's showing. It's pretty interesting - I find myself hesitating when it's showing one face more and more. I'm sure part of it is just reinforcing an initial bias once I notice my own hesitation, but magnifying an existing bias is after all the point of the exercise.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#50
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny how these tricks really do work, where you can skip the deliberation and go right to the decision you've already subconsciously made. Another similar one is to flip a coin and see if you're disappointed in the outcome or not (or alternatively, think about which coin outcome you're hoping for before you look at the result).

There's also another variant of coin-flipping: if you're agonizing over choice between option A and option B, it means that their costs and benefits roughly cancel out - so you're wasting time deliberating, and may as well toss a coin and be done with it.

Kind of like Frost's "The Road Not Taken." Many think it's about how he made a bold decision that "made all the difference," but it's really about how it didn't matter which road he took.

Though as for that the passing there / Had worn them really about the same

Post reply on HN