How to Make a Big Decision • Hacker News Board

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#21

Post by BeniBoy » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 8:41 AM UTC

drawkbox wrote: post #18

Jeff Bezos "Regret Minimization Framework" [1] A regret minimization framework "I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have,'" explains Bezos. "I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was…

It seems reckless to get your life advice from the richest person in the world without taking survivorship bias into account[1]

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#22

Post by jonathanstrange » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 8:47 AM UTC

This is an interesting story, but it's also odd that it doesn't mention any of the standard work on decision making (e.g. Savage), no multiattribute decision making/multiattribute utility theory and all the variations thereof such as lexicographic decision making, nontransitive preferences, generalized additive decomposition, and other nonstandard models of decision making (like e.g. in Fishburn's seminal work or Schmeidler's work).

There is consensus in the decision making literature that the direct scoring method described at the end of the article is flawed for measurement theoretic reasons, and a vast range of elaborate preference elicitation methods have been developed. There is also work in philosophy on value structure that is partly relevant, though not yet at the level of economic modelling.

In a nutshell, the article is interesting but sound decision making is much harder and more complicated than the author portrays it. I just wanted to mention this for people who aren't aware of it, there is a vast literature in this area.

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Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#23

Post by baxtr » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:03 AM UTC

drawkbox wrote: post #18

Jeff Bezos "Regret Minimization Framework" [1] A regret minimization framework "I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have,'" explains Bezos. "I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was…

This approach is highly flawed because you optimize for the age of 80 where your body and mind are heavily limited. Being happy at 80 isn’t something I’d optimize for. Being happy along the way even if you’d regret it later seems to be more reasonable. Best of course happy along the way and happy later.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#24

Post by q-base » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:15 AM UTC

runesoerensen wrote: post #13

"In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life [...] Should he get married?" Incidentally, Kierkegaard kinda tried to answer this question 5 years later in Either/Or. A couple of related snippets: "I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations — one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do…

I have Either/Or standing on my bookshelf - need to push it forward in my list of upcoming books to read.

And given your name it could seem that we both share the same origin as Kierkegaard :)

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#25

Post by Steve44 » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:23 AM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #4

The Freakonomics guys did a paper on this. Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change. Their experiment was based on coin flips and self-reported happiness, but basically those who made the big change after the coin told them to reported being substantially happier, and if you dive into the data, you'll see that those that went with the biggest decisions (quit a job, get married) saw a double dig…

Two personal anecdotes related to this.

I've made what seem to be four major career decisions in my life. Aged 14 at school I was in tears because I couldn't do one of the O levels I desperately wanted, the school pretty much forced me onto this new Computer Studies course they'd just started running. As a direct result it grabbed me and I worked in the games industry for a good few years.

In my late 20s a friend offered me a role earning a lot more money wearing a suit in the IT department of an insurance company. A very tough choice as I loved the industry but after a couple of weeks of heart wrenching I took it; absolutely no regrets 25 years later.

Now at work unless I can decide using experience or hard facts I'll either choose not to decide or do a coin toss. It infuriates some people but if I can't sensibly analyse it any more and my crystal ball isn't working that day then random is far better than wasting time thinking about it.

One other thing to help make a quick decision is to toss a coin and whilst it's in the air think how you want it to land and then go with that. The limited time forces you to choose what is generally the route you subconsciously want.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#26

Post by aedron » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:24 AM UTC

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on.

The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already know what the right thing is, and the act of explcitly stating the 'business requirements' (doing the morally right thing, for the long term good) just makes it obvious - no divine intervention needed! I'm pretty sure it's just a clever mental hack, but it does work.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#27

Post by alexpetralia » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:25 AM UTC

I think it's important to make a distinction between "decision parameters" - factors relative to _this_ particular decision - and what I call "decision hyperparameters" - factors which are relevant to all decision-making.

For example, you can be evaluating the purchase of a new car, but if you have slept poorly or haven't eaten recently, you may not be in the best state to make a wise decision.

We often check the parameters for each decision, but not as often hyperparameters (how much time do I have to make this decision? how reversable is it? how am I feeling? how much domain knowledge do I have?). I think a concrete checklist for major decisions is quite useful - we abstract up from the decision and ensure that our _decision-making process_ is sound.

For the interested, I wrote about this here: https://alexpetralia.github.io/2017/11/27/NL-2017-11-27.html

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#28

Post by aplummer » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:28 AM UTC

jonathanstrange wrote: post #22

This is an interesting story, but it's also odd that it doesn't mention any of the standard work on decision making (e.g. Savage), no multiattribute decision making/multiattribute utility theory and all the variations thereof such as lexicographic decision making, nontransitive preferences, generalized additive decomposition, and other nonstandard models of decision making (like e.g. in Fishburn's seminal work or Sch…

I just wanted to say j strange is my favourite novel, read it at least 10 times!

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#29

Post by mnw21cam » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:29 AM UTC

One method I sometimes use to work out whether I have an underlying feeling about a two-way decision is to get a coin, assign heads/tail, then toss it. On seeing the outcome, observe to see if I feel disappointed. This seems to be a good way to discover whether I had a preference that I hadn't realised I had.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#30

Post by lifeisstillgood » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:54 AM UTC

For me there is also a meta-decision - should I actually be making a decision about this now?

For example the marriage decision is easy - there are probably less than 5 points in everyone's life where that decision is even entertained. Because there are only a few times when you are not married and dating someone who might be the one.

However the divorce decision is ... well a lot more frequent because you are always married and will then over a 50 year period find pints where The Big Decision is in your mind.

A default go for it is not always the right thing

Same for leaving your job, selling your house, etc

You might be better off yes - but you could find yourself making the same decision 3 months later