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The Village Voice, a New York Icon, Closes

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Re: The Village Voice, a New York Icon, Closes

#61
post #55
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A clear sign, and only 14y later they closed. For someone who knows the industry, such a sign is not as irrelevant as it appears - nor is closing down a sudden affair. Unlike SV startups which can fold in 1-2 years, news outlets are surprisingly resilient in their dying. It's a long process of decay with several milestones along the way... As someone that has worked in the print business, and am familiar with the h…

You're getting into some really sketchy territory though. For it to be a sign, it has to be consistent. The vast majority has to follow the rule. Exceptions need to be rare. Otherwise, it's pretty much just anti-survivor bias. Yes, all failed magazines did these things, but doing that thing doesn't mean your magazine is failing if all magazines do it. Or if enough successful magazines do it. 14 years is a long time.…

>For it to be a sign, it has to be consistent. The vast majority has to follow the rule. Exceptions need to be rare.

Exceptions are rare. Flaying outlets invariably go through those moves.

>14 years is a long time

"long" makes sense only relatively. For some things the time from writing on the wall to dying off is in that order, and media outlets are one of those things. I already explained how a SV startup for example can die in 1-2 years (because VC money dry off etc), but established news outlets die much more slowly, in the span of a decade or more.

It's something I've witnessed unravel from inside and from friends inside with dozens of outlets in my country, and I've seen from afar the same path followed in several others in the US and elsewhere.

>Yes, all failed magazines did these things, but doing that thing doesn't mean your magazine is failing if all magazines do it.

Well, all magazines don't do it. Few do it without such reasons.

Re: The Village Voice, a New York Icon, Closes

#62
post #61
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting into some really sketchy territory though. For it to be a sign, it has to be consistent. The vast majority has to follow the rule. Exceptions need to be rare. Otherwise, it's pretty much just anti-survivor bias. Yes, all failed magazines did these things, but doing that thing doesn't mean your magazine is failing if all magazines do it. Or if enough successful magazines do it. 14 years is a long time.…

> For it to be a sign, it has to be consistent. The vast majority has to follow the rule. Exceptions need to be rare. Exceptions are rare. Flaying outlets invariably go through those moves. > 14 years is a long time "long" makes sense only relatively. For some things the time from writing on the wall to dying off is in that order, and media outlets are one of those things. I already explained how a SV startup for exa…

You've made those claims, yes.

The distance between cause and effect is great. 14 years is long enough for a child to be conceived and start attending high school. That's not insignificant.

My points were:

That on a long enough timeline, everything fails. Which I illustrated by showing that everyone who has drank water has died or will die in a specific time frame.

You need to see where you're wrong as well as where you're right. Which I illustrated by pointing out every divorce begins in marriage. It's technically true, but marriage holds no predictive power because plenty of marriages succeed. For something to be a sign, it needs to be common in one group and rare in another. So giving up horoscopes needs to be common in failed magazines and rare in successful ones.

And something I didn't really illustrate too well: it needs to have a strong correlation both ways. In other words not only do the vast majority of magazines that give up horoscopes need to fail, the vast majority of magazines that fail need to give up horoscopes.

And the lifespan of the average publication must be far greater than 14 years. Or even a decade using your timetable. Because if most publications fail within that time, then you could literally point to anything and call it a sign.

All of it needs to be true.

Re: The Village Voice, a New York Icon, Closes

#63
post #17
post #5

The irony and tragedy of a former Village Voice writer Tom Robbins now at the NYU Craig Newmark journalism school. Craig Newmark, the founder of the site that killed print newspapers. I'll miss the Voice.

> Do you really truly believe that, if not for Craigslist, little kids would be riding around your neighborhood today tossing thick newspapers onto your lawn laden with classified ads? If so, we need to talk. https://medium.com/@pilhofer/no-craig-newmark-did-not-kill-l... By the way, "Posting Instagram Sponsored Content Is the New Summer Job" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17878131

Only in the sense that if it wasn't Newmark and Craigslist, it would have been someone else with a different site. The fact is that classifieds were a major supporter of journalism and that they were killed by Craigslist. That he has given money to journalism schools is nice, but not unlike how Gordon Moore's foundation gives grants for environmental research despite Intel not being the most environmentally friendly company.
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