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Tesla, software and disruption

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Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#41

Post by rsync »

mrfusion wrote: post #6

If batteries are getting so cheap why isn’t anyone making battery powered: chainsaws, full size vacuum cleaners, jet skis, ride on mowers? All of those would be revolutionary.

"If batteries are getting so cheap why isn’t anyone making battery powered: chainsaws, full size vacuum cleaners, jet skis, ride on mowers?"

They are. The fire department I volunteer at has put the dewalt battery powered chainsaw in service on our engines (which is significant as we deal with a lot of downed trees, etc.)

I am personally (slowly) switching to battery operated tools for lighter duty mowing and trimming at my ranch (dewalt and bosch).

Further, I see that while the big brands (Polaris, Kawasaki, Yamaha) do not yet have electric quads, you can find them on alibaba, etc., to be shipped to the US.

Heavier duty use-cased - like very large chainsaws and mowers - will still have people like me using IC engines but regular homeowners and even contractors/pros will be switched over to battery for almost everything landscaping/mowing related in the next ten years. It couldn't happen too soon.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#42

Post by Animats »

IBM wrote: post #37
pcprincipal wrote: post #28

I read a lot of articles on TSLA and usually fail to see any mention of their power business. Granted, this is a small part of revenue right now ($1.1BN for FY17 of $11.8BN total), but growing fast and with some highly visible data points (Puerto Rico, South Australia). They are going to win multi-billion-dollar contracts if the US or other countries decide to rebuild their grids. As a TSLA shareholder, this opportun…

There's even less of a moat for Tesla in selling batteries to utilities than there is for their cars. And SolarCity was heading to zero. It was acquired by Tesla because Elon had to bail himself out or the myth of Elon Musk as Tony Stark would have been undone. But also because he along with his cousins would have lost a lot of money. That's compounded by the fact that Elon is significantly personally leveraged and a…

Especially since Tesla doesn't make cells. They buy from Panasonic. Panasonic competes directly with Tesla in home and bulk energy storage.[1]

[1] https://na.panasonic.com/us/energy-solutions/battery-storage...

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#43

Post by gonesilent »

bri3d wrote: post #23
Shivetya wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

batteries are getting cheaper but good long term reliable batteries will still set you back a bit. I have had an electric mower, edger, and blower. I only kept the last item. The first just didn't last well enough even with a spare battery and it was already degrading before the end of the season. The edger just didn't cut it, sorry about the pun. There are riding electric mowers but the cost keeps most off of them a…

The newest Zero electric motorcycles will go around 100 miles at real highway speeds, which isn't bad compared to most small-tank gas motorcycles (although obviously lack of refueling options is an issue). I do think they're a good illustration of the cost issue, though, as they're astronomically expensive.

F Zero motorcycles, supported them buying one of the first production bikes and now it sits with a dead battery and zero no longer sells replacments shafting all it's first gen bike owners.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#44

Post by dragontamer »

_7fvc wrote: post #16

I think an important advantage is vertical integration. Similar to Apple and iPhone, Tesla controls most of the stack. They can do a lot more than their competitors.

There are a ton of differences between Apple and Tesla. Most noticeably, Apple actually made a profit selling the iPhone.

6-years after the release of the Model S, Telsa has yet to turn a profit. And instead, is facing bankruptcy within the next two years unless it can roll over its debt or otherwise raise yet a few more billion $$$$.

Compare and contrast: the iPhone was released in 2007. The Tesla Model S was released in 2012. Steve Jobs died in 2011 (4-years after the iPhone). You can tell that that Apple was a successful company by the time Steve Jobs died.

Furthermore, Apple accomplished its iPhone launch during the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis. In contrast, Tesla's rampup is during the cheapest money ever to be seen in modern history: low interest rates and a grand bull market.

The political, environmental, and financial headwinds Apple faced during its time to create the iPhone were exponentially more difficult than Tesla's. And yet, Apple turned a profit and became a lasting company. The same cannot be said yet of Tesla.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#45

Post by gizmo »

mariushn wrote: post #35
pcprincipal wrote: post #28

I read a lot of articles on TSLA and usually fail to see any mention of their power business. Granted, this is a small part of revenue right now ($1.1BN for FY17 of $11.8BN total), but growing fast and with some highly visible data points (Puerto Rico, South Australia). They are going to win multi-billion-dollar contracts if the US or other countries decide to rebuild their grids. As a TSLA shareholder, this opportun…

How much profit do those projects bring?

Tesla lost money on the Australia project. They bought the battery cells from Samsung and put them in a Tesla branded unit. Samsung also could have installed the battery themselves (always cheaper to cut out a middle man), but Tesla was willing to buy their cells and then sell them at a loss to Australia.

Tesla got a ton of publicity out of it, though, so it was probably a win for all parties involved.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#46

Post by henrikschroder »

amluto wrote: post #15
diskandar27 wrote: post #4

it seems the article boils down to the autonomy puzzle in Tesla. Could Tesla make the autonomy a realization with their approach? would waymo approach be better in the future? One thing I think that is missing, although it mentioned people love their Tesla and so is other thing in life. It is the fact that I felt that this is derived from the way Tesla designed the car, it is intuitive just like when the first Iphone…

> It is the fact that I felt that this is derived from the way Tesla designed the car, it is intuitive just like when the first Iphone introduced. I beg to differ. The iPhone was intuitive in that all the (built-in) apps were nicely laid out so you could easily interact with them while you are looking at the phone and giving it most of your attention. Kind of like a Tesla is nicely laid out so that you can mostly eas…

> To Tesla’s credit, their on/off/drive/reverse control is vastly superior to anyone else’s.

They got it from Mercedes, as well as all the other steering wheel stalks (lights, window washers, cruise control), as well as the driver door window and mirrors control pad.

Good on them for selecting the best on the market, but it's not their invention.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#47

Post by emptyfile »

frenchie4111 wrote: post #26

Something missing from this article: Tesla doesn't necessarily need to solve the vision only SLAM/Autonomy problem itself. If anyone solves the problem, and is willing to sell it. Tesla can immediately license it and turn their fleet of 200k+ Autopilot 2 cars into self driving cars overnight.

I thought we were done with the autopilot fantasies?

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#48

Post by trisomy21 »

dragontamer wrote: post #44
_7fvc wrote: post #16

I think an important advantage is vertical integration. Similar to Apple and iPhone, Tesla controls most of the stack. They can do a lot more than their competitors.

There are a ton of differences between Apple and Tesla. Most noticeably, Apple actually made a profit selling the iPhone. 6-years after the release of the Model S, Telsa has yet to turn a profit. And instead, is facing bankruptcy within the next two years unless it can roll over its debt or otherwise raise yet a few more billion $$$$. Compare and contrast: the iPhone was released in 2007. The Tesla Model S was releas…

“The political, environmental, and financial headwinds Apple faced during its time to create the iPhone were exponentially more difficult than Tesla's.“

I get that you might not be bullish on Tesla, but do you seriously believe this?

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#49

Post by seldon999 »

dragontamer wrote: post #44
_7fvc wrote: post #16

I think an important advantage is vertical integration. Similar to Apple and iPhone, Tesla controls most of the stack. They can do a lot more than their competitors.

There are a ton of differences between Apple and Tesla. Most noticeably, Apple actually made a profit selling the iPhone. 6-years after the release of the Model S, Telsa has yet to turn a profit. And instead, is facing bankruptcy within the next two years unless it can roll over its debt or otherwise raise yet a few more billion $$$$. Compare and contrast: the iPhone was released in 2007. The Tesla Model S was releas…

Do you know how to read a financial statement? They have 26% gross margins on the Model S. Model 3 just turned gross margin positive in Q2. Your response is boring and boneheaded. Next.

Re: Tesla, software and disruption

#50

Post by tommymachine »

dragontamer wrote: post #44
_7fvc wrote: post #16

I think an important advantage is vertical integration. Similar to Apple and iPhone, Tesla controls most of the stack. They can do a lot more than their competitors.

There are a ton of differences between Apple and Tesla. Most noticeably, Apple actually made a profit selling the iPhone. 6-years after the release of the Model S, Telsa has yet to turn a profit. And instead, is facing bankruptcy within the next two years unless it can roll over its debt or otherwise raise yet a few more billion $$$$. Compare and contrast: the iPhone was released in 2007. The Tesla Model S was releas…

They are two different companies. Apple had its share of turmoil during the 30 years it was a company prior to the success of iPhone. For instance, having around six months of money left to burn when acquiring NEXT in 1996. Tesla has been around for ~15y. Sure, tech cycles are getting shorter, but still, it's a long slog over many years to scale any vertically involved hardware company.
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