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Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

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Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#31

Post by ardy42 »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #5
lovich wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is growing but it doesn't appear to actually be flowing back into most citizens pockets. The unemployment rate is very low but wages aren't rising. Anecdotally, I am seeing more help wanted signs on retail and restaurants near me, but my friends who work those jobs are moving _farther_ away from work due to increasing rent without increasing pay. That doesn't seem sustainable

Could you link something that supports your opinion? As for me: US consumer confidence surges in August to 18 year high. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/29/us-economy-... . Consumers wouldn't be spending if they didn't have extra cash in their pocket, and they expect the economy to stagnate/decline

>> The economy is growing but it doesn't appear to actually be flowing back into most citizens pockets. The unemployment rate is very low but wages aren't rising.

> Could you link something that supports your opinion?

This does: Are Superstar Firms and Amazon Effects Reshaping the Economy? (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/25/upshot/big-corporations-i...)

> The biggest companies may be influencing things like inflation and wage growth, possibly at the expense of central bankers’ power to do so.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#32

Post by purplezooey »

The challenge of the next 10 years will be housing. We are not building nearly enough. A fraction of what we need even to slow price growth. We still have these quaint subdivisions built in the 60s and 70s full of nimbyism and voting down all development. We need a big move here.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#33

Post by mikeash »

refurb wrote: post #27
tootie wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wage data is well-tracked and is shown to be growing more slowly than inflation. It's possible the high growth in nominal wages are engendering some good feelings, but actual purchasing power is dropping. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/2018/07/12/i...

What you should be looking at is total compensation. Wages plus non-wage benefits. It’s been growing over the last few decades and out pacing inflation. The down side is a lot of that is medical insurance where most people don’t see a benefit from the higher expenditure.

Given that so much of it is medical insurance, why is that what you should be looking at?

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#34

Post by h4b4n3r0 »

nopinsight wrote: post #28
MR4D wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We win. Seriously though, you’re asking a fantastic question. And, surprisingly, my tongue in cheek response above is sort of correct. The world was actually in a similar position to the one you ask about right after WWII ended. The world was still on fire and most countries had no real currency to spend. So, we loaned them the money to buy our goods (not much of a services economy back then). Of course, that’s what…

> my tongue in cheek response above is sort of correct. The world is in a very different state now. Most of the manufacturing bases are outside the US. If the US somehow withheld the dollar, most of the world would just switch to alternative currencies and continue to trade with one another. That of course would most likely never happen in our lifetimes, since the dollar is a key pillar in the American economy and gl…

Most of the world (and especially China and Mexico) cannot withdraw from the largest market for their goods without their economies totally collapsing. That’s why Trump is going to win his trade wars. Money talks, bullshit walks.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#35

Post by grandmczeb »

tootie wrote: post #7
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you link something that supports your opinion? As for me: US consumer confidence surges in August to 18 year high. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/29/us-economy-... . Consumers wouldn't be spending if they didn't have extra cash in their pocket, and they expect the economy to stagnate/decline

Wage data is well-tracked and is shown to be growing more slowly than inflation. It's possible the high growth in nominal wages are engendering some good feelings, but actual purchasing power is dropping. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/2018/07/12/i...

While it's true that wage growth has been slower during since 2009 than in previous business cycles, it's false that real wages have actually gone down (it's up about 1-4% since the end of the last recession depending on how you measure[1]). Additionally, benefits have grown quite a bit over the long term, which makes looking at just wages misleading. If you look at total compensation, we've seen a 60% increase since the beginning of the 70s and about 30% since the 90s[2].

Slightly off topic, but I also found it interesting that net transfers (e.g. from the government) also make up a much larger percentage of total household income than they used to (growing from 5% in 1950 to about 17% now[3].)

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=l1e2

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=74dI

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7rNW

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#36

Post by kasey_junk »

nopinsight wrote: post #28
MR4D wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We win. Seriously though, you’re asking a fantastic question. And, surprisingly, my tongue in cheek response above is sort of correct. The world was actually in a similar position to the one you ask about right after WWII ended. The world was still on fire and most countries had no real currency to spend. So, we loaned them the money to buy our goods (not much of a services economy back then). Of course, that’s what…

> my tongue in cheek response above is sort of correct. The world is in a very different state now. Most of the manufacturing bases are outside the US. If the US somehow withheld the dollar, most of the world would just switch to alternative currencies and continue to trade with one another. That of course would most likely never happen in our lifetimes, since the dollar is a key pillar in the American economy and gl…

Which other currency? It’s been a bit since I was involved in currency trading but back then that was a huge question.

People wanted out of usd for lots of reasons but the other choices were worse.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#37

Post by mrep »

melling wrote: post #9
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #2

I haven't seen US economy this versatile and powerful in a long time, maybe since the 80s. This economy is diversified - manufacturing jobs used to be 32% in the 60s, now it is around 9% currently, but it is growing fast this year. We now have new jobs in every sectors growing, from finance (NY), college (Boston), healthcare (east coast), government (Washington DC), entertainment (Los Angeles), oil and gas (Texas), i…

I’ve been trying to learn a little about economics. Do you have any favorite economists, etc that you follow? I’m trying to learn more about the interaction of QE, rising fed rates, growing deficits, etc. Basically, I’d like to move beyond the headlines and the spin. [Update] Here are some people I try to follow: Jan Hatzius - Goldman Economist Robert Schiller Stephen Roach - Yale Economist https://www.project-syndic…

If you are trying to learn about a subject, then I fully recommend you disregard current popular subject matter experts and focus on learning the basics as that is where you will learn the most especially considering the subject matter experts probably won't make sense if you do not understand the basics.

How each person learns is subjective but I find textbooks are by far the best learning materials so if you are like me, then I would recommend you buy some introductory economic textbooks and read them. I know a lot about economics because I read a few intro economics textbooks and I kept reading new textbooks based on what interested me from previous ones and now I have read over 20.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#38

Post by losteric »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #5
lovich wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is growing but it doesn't appear to actually be flowing back into most citizens pockets. The unemployment rate is very low but wages aren't rising. Anecdotally, I am seeing more help wanted signs on retail and restaurants near me, but my friends who work those jobs are moving _farther_ away from work due to increasing rent without increasing pay. That doesn't seem sustainable

Could you link something that supports your opinion? As for me: US consumer confidence surges in August to 18 year high. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/29/us-economy-... . Consumers wouldn't be spending if they didn't have extra cash in their pocket, and they expect the economy to stagnate/decline

> Consumers wouldn't be spending if they didn't have extra cash in their pocket, and they expect the economy to stagnate/decline

Cash... or credit. Americans currently hold around $3.6 trillion in credit cards and auto/student loans - those types of credit can hinder long-term growth.

And the CCI is not a predictive metric. Consumers don't consider the economy in their purchasing decisions unless the media has given them reason to be concerned... if they're even paying attention to news at all.

I'm also curious how CCI is influenced by lowering expectations - if populations have been struggling to find jobs for the past 4 years, how do people answer?

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#39

Post by tropo »

purplezooey wrote: post #32

The challenge of the next 10 years will be housing. We are not building nearly enough. A fraction of what we need even to slow price growth. We still have these quaint subdivisions built in the 60s and 70s full of nimbyism and voting down all development. We need a big move here.

No amount will ever be enough if we all try to cram into the most fancy spot.

Americans don't have many kids now. There are lots of empty towns all across the country. We thus have plenty of housing. We could stop building today and be fine for decades.

Re: Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent on software, trade

#40

Post by mrep »

purplezooey wrote: post #32

The challenge of the next 10 years will be housing. We are not building nearly enough. A fraction of what we need even to slow price growth. We still have these quaint subdivisions built in the 60s and 70s full of nimbyism and voting down all development. We need a big move here.

The only area that I am aware of that has that problem is the bay area. Yeah, you guys are fucked but every other city that I am aware of is aggressively building to supply demand for housing.
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