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Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

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Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#221

Post by southern_cross »

wizardforhire wrote: post #214
nkoren wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Greenland melts, you get 6 meters (20 feet).[1] 1: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

Greenland is melting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/20...

I found it curious that this research only went back 450 years or so, since that takes you back to just before the Little Ice Age, a time of unusually cold temperatures, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. One wonders what they would have found had they kept going further back in time.

BTW, they already know that a lot of the melting in Greenland is from the bottom up (geothermal) rather than from the top down. But of course you don't hear too much about that, do you?

https://www.newsweek.com/puzzling-heat-deep-inside-earth-mel...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#222

Post by planteen »

craftyguy wrote: post #182
planteen wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elected officials force people to move in Rapid City, South Dakota after the 1972 flood. Today, the flood plain is a very nice bike path with no houses. This probably happened due to the high deal toll (238 fatalities). "Many businesses were permitted to stay in the flood plain, but houses and motels were either raised or moved due to the likelihood that a flood would occur while a person may be sleeping. The majorit…

> after the 1972 flood. Again, that was a reaction to something that already happened. Are there any examples of elected officials forcing folks to leave an area well before something bad happens?

When did we switch to talking about that (the 'before' part)? This thread is debating the OP's comment about how flooding in Calgary either gave people the choice in moving or never receiving assistance in the future.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#223

Post by calgoo »

laverick wrote: post #89
fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

Isn't Zillow ignoring the immense value created from all those new beachfront properties?

This is actually a joke i have told my wife who has family in Florida: The only way i would buy property in Florida is if im allowed to build an artificial hill/mountain on it, so that in 100 years my family will own a private island.

I wonder if there is a long term business model here... Invest in land and prepare it to survive being surrounded by water, build infrastructure etc and then sell it to the same type of people who buy bunkers for end of the world situations.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#224

Post by mbostleman »

thaumaturgy wrote: post #208
mbostleman wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I think the issue is that mainstream "journalism" is actually entertainment in all respects other than the fact that it carries a fairly widespread credibility among its audience as not being entertainment but rather a factual, verifiable source of information - one that is beyond the audience's ability to understand. Sort of like the unquestioning acceptance that many give to doctors or lawyers because (it is a…

People also sometimes cherry-pick or carve up data so that they can find a "surprising" result, to use one of ~pg's favorite adjectives. Your coworker had the impression that wildfires are becoming larger and more damaging, and that climate change is a principal cause of this, due to widespread coverage to that effect (examples: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]). (Which I suppose was your point.) And many of those journalists…

I also used the NIFC data. I mis-spoke on a couple of points.

First, I only used data from 1983 and later (not the 1960s as I said, and certainly not prior to the 1950s as you assert that some people do) because their footnote said that the sources for data prior to 1983 are not known or can't be confirmed.

Second, I graphed the data since 1983 and there was somewhat of a trend upwards (not no trend like I said). But it didn't look significant to me. Especially not in climate terms. And especially given that realiable data only covers 35 years. And especially given that the numbers swing wildly with how we manage fires. That is, a trend in either direction could easily be created by increasing or decreasing budgets to keep them from starting and/or fighting them, like the swings you reference prior to the 1950s.

But in any case, as I said, I not saying that wildland fires are not somehow affected by climate change. Only that people tend to accept narratives that are repeated over and over without critically questioning them.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#225

Post by AndyMcConachie »

creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

Don't worry. The American tax payer will cover the banks' losses if Miami goes under. Not sure about the homeowners, but I'm sure the banks will continue to have their losses socialized.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#226

Post by orclev »

state_less wrote: post #40
creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

It's fascinating, I remember during the runnup to the housing collapse where folks kept bidding up the housing like it could go up forever. Maybe folks think they'll be able to get out before the collapse, or some new tech will save them from being underwater?

You also can't discount the (depressingly) massive number of people who believe that climate change is a hoax/conspiracy by… someone (used to be China was the favorite boogeyman, but not sure who they're blaming now)… to do something or other that would in some fashion hurt the USA. It may very well be that people are buying out there under the assumption that nothing is going to change at all and that all the flooding is either just a fluke, or else won't ever get any worse than it currently is.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#227

Post by southern_cross »

mbostleman wrote: post #185
fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

Yes. I think the issue is that mainstream "journalism" is actually entertainment in all respects other than the fact that it carries a fairly widespread credibility among its audience as not being entertainment but rather a factual, verifiable source of information - one that is beyond the audience's ability to understand. Sort of like the unquestioning acceptance that many give to doctors or lawyers because (it is a…

The estimates that I've read say that up to 90% of modern wildfires are started by man, rather than being started by natural causes such as lightning. Subtract out much of that 90% from the current numbers and what do you get?

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#228

Post by DoreenMichele »

creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

Humans are notoriously bad at actually predicting the future. People can have all kinds of reasons for wanting to live there and it can be much easier to put blinders on about hard-to-understand problems than to rearrange your entire life to address some seemingly "hypothetical" problem that is supposed to occur at some undetermined future date.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#229

Post by lakechfoma »

llandho wrote: post #209
lakechfoma wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not but I think GPs point is that if the rhetoric of the article was different and better data included then stuff like this would be harder to tear up and dismiss. This happens on both sides on all issues.

People who still believe climate change is a myth aren’t reasoned or reasoning people. His position is ideological not logical. More info in a Bloomberg piece won’t help, and it’s silly to pretend otherwise.

Again I think you're right that it won't help sway peoples thoughts on the subject _alone_ but in aggregate if all the rhetoric from one side became harder to target by the opposing pundits then maybe that would help at least slow down conversion or heel digging.

I don't know if I agree with the GP that this article would be considered fluff, or that it could be an easy target for pundits, but I definitely see that pattern pop up a lot. ACLU/EFF frequently disappoint me with completely valid points steeped in FUD and bad methodologies that make them easy to rebut. The opposition finds the errors, turns around, gets their base hype on some key emotional rebuttals or mocking while ignoring the real valid points, and all we end up with is stronger division between sides.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#230

Post by mistrial9 »

mjn wrote: post #181
mistrial9 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the 4th Climate Assessment of the State of California (this week in Sacramento) the officially accepted number is now 9'ish feet mean sea level rise by 2100. ( still reading summary as linked below) correction: 95th percentile of summary prediction is shown as 20 inches by 2050 (page 9 link below) (more specific report on this topic http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-... )

To be more specific, 9 feet (2.7m) is the report's worst-case upper bound, the 99.9th-percentile results of running a new simulation model, RCP 8.5, not a prediction of what's likely to happen. That model has a huge range: Its 50th-percentile (median) estimate is only 1 foot (0.3m) of rise, and its 95th-percentile estimate is 7.5 feet (2.3m). There's discussion of that on pp. 31-32 of the summary report here (PDF): h…

hm I would reword that response .. still reading the two reports now
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