Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First • Hacker News Board

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#141

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:12 PM UTC

leereeves wrote: post #131

pstuart wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if that rate remains steady, and it very well may not.

True. And some scientists believe that rate is accelerating, for example Steve Nerem et al: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180212150739.h... That accelerating projection "has the potential to double the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate -- to more than 60 cm instead of about 30". Two feet instead of one. I still don't see where six feet is coming from.

[deleted]

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#142

Post by sigstoat » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:13 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #5

ben509 wrote: post #2

Part of the problem here is exacerbated by all the flood insurance that effectively subsidizes building in flood plains. In addition to long term measures to mitigate climate change, we should have a tax on areas that are threatened by flooding and water levels rising so that we can reduce the immediate issues by incentivizing people to move away from them.

Should we also tax people living in earthquake-prone and tornado-prone areas? How about blizzard-prone areas? Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live. Also, as someone who lived in south Florida, flood insurance is a joke and unavailable near the coast anyway. Nobody expects it to pay out enough in a major catastrophe, including hurricanes and flooding.

> Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live.

plenty of places that don't see earthquakes, tornados, floods, hurricanes, or much of anything else.

blizzards might sound apocalyptic to a floridian, but generally just damage above-ground electrical, and maybe knock a few trees into a few roofs.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#143

Post by jellicle » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:16 PM UTC

TangoTrotFox wrote: post #114

fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

I couldn't agree more. It seems to be an increasing trend in the media lately that articles are driven by narrative and emotional appeals than actual facts. This creates the bizarre scenario where you can read a 3,691 word story on how Miami will soon be underwater and yet be unable to explain Why the article is proposing this might be the case. So for instance the first thing I did after seeing this headline was to…

> They put Miami's expected sea level rise at 0 to 1 feet over the next century

That's a false description of what NOAA says. The sea level trend is an instantaneous rate, not a projection of any sort.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#144

Post by lozenge » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:16 PM UTC

igravious wrote: post #130

beat wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. It's saying that Miami's water supply is at risk, partly due to rising sea levels, partly due to human activity damaging the aquifer (limestone mining, toxic waste). Moreover, six feet of sea level rise isn't going to happen instantaneously. It will take decades. Property will slowly be lost, but people will just move inland (or move away). And a key question is…

> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a…

Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#145

Post by mrfredward » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:18 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #101

Analemma_ wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until the Federal government gets out of the guaranteed flood insurance business-- which is unlikely to happen soon, as there would be fierce political blowback-- you will always be able to get flood insurance supported by taxpayers.

Federal Flood Insurance has had zero net subsidy from 1968 to 2004. While covering up to 5.5 million homes in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr... Currently it's 25 billion in debt, but that's cheap in terms of federal programs of that magnitude (~15 $ per home per year). Further, the net economic gain from allowing people to build in slightly at risk areas has easily been worth 25…

So the program broke even for 36 years, then started running up debt in the early 2000s...because of more severe weather.

As sea levels rise and weather gets more severe, this program will become much more expensive.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#146

Post by adrianN » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:19 PM UTC

jellicle wrote: post #138

fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

> If you come at this from the angle of "climate change is a myth" Is it really a fair critique to insist that articles must be written to make sense to people who believe the moon is made of green cheese? And that every couple hundred words written for the general public must be fully-cited?

If a significant chunk of the population, including the president, actually believe that the Moon is made of green cheese...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#147

Post by hfdgiutdryg » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:20 PM UTC

The idea that it's 2018 and we don't have solar powered desalination plants for some of our largest, sunny, water-limited southern cities boggles my mind. Los Angeles has a nuclear plant just to the north, but no desalination, and more sun than anyone wants. It's insane.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#148

Post by FranOntanaya » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:21 PM UTC

laverick wrote: post #89

fabricexpert wrote: post #80

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

Isn't Zillow ignoring the immense value created from all those new beachfront properties?

That works better when the land isn't 100 miles wide with ocean on both sides. Miami City has a better ring than Miami Keys.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#149

Post by downrightmike » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:22 PM UTC

scottlamb wrote: post #76

chollida1 wrote: post #9

Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? What does it do to the economy when almost everyones largest asset(their house) is wo…

> Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. If the 2007 financial crisis taught me anything, it's that we can't rely on the banks to make sound financial decisions, particularly regarding mortgages. Even more so now that the government bailed them out at taxpayer expense. They know that will happen again when needed. They have a safety net so they can gambl…

The people who took out most of the mortgages, were good sound borrowers with good credit scores and were often buying a second or more house to flip. Not just the banks, the borrowers are made of humans that make bad choices and liked to gamble. https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housi...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#150

Post by downrightmike » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 5:24 PM UTC

clarkmoody wrote: post #86

scottlamb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. If the 2007 financial crisis taught me anything, it's that we can't rely on the banks to make sound financial decisions, particularly regarding mortgages. Even more so now that the government bailed them out at taxpayer expense. They know that will happen again when needed. They have a safety net so they can gambl…

The 2007/8 bailout of banks is far from the first time the US government has socialized losses in the sector. The modern era of Wall Street bailouts started in the '80s after the Mexican Peso crisis. Bank bailouts have been happening since Colonial times, through emergency suspensions of specie payment, par laws, legal tender laws, etc. > we can't rely on the banks to make sound financial decisions Banks that have an…

The shoe was on the other foot once: "Morgan helps end the Panic of 1893 Gold certificateOn February 20, 1895, J.P. Morgan & Co. led a bond offering that helped rescue the United States from a severe two-year economic depression." https://www.jpmorgan.com/country/US/en/jpmorgan/about/histor...