Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First • Hacker News Board

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#61

Post by wwweston » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:19 PM UTC

erentz wrote: post #3

I’ve never understood how the parts of the country most affected by sea level rise have been so vociferously against it being real. When the BP spill happened and they had all the local mayors and politicians crying about the damage to their coast, I couldn’t understand why no one had the cajones to ask them why they cared so much about their coast being damaged now, when they were completely fine with it being gone…

Many people don't vote their interests. They vote their identity and values.

Rational self-interest is an assumption that enlightenment liberals and market fundamentalists alike have overplayed. It has its applications, and it may even be a somewhat valid assumption for individuals carefully looking at the terms of an economic deal they have make-or-break decision making power over. For collective civil action, my guess is its influence is somewhere between minimal and a wash.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#62

Post by orclev » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:19 PM UTC

moorhosj wrote: post #48

creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

It is possible that they think otherwise exactly because they already have skin in the game.

Variant on sunk-cost fallacy?

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#63

Post by growlist » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #5

ben509 wrote: post #2

Part of the problem here is exacerbated by all the flood insurance that effectively subsidizes building in flood plains. In addition to long term measures to mitigate climate change, we should have a tax on areas that are threatened by flooding and water levels rising so that we can reduce the immediate issues by incentivizing people to move away from them.

Should we also tax people living in earthquake-prone and tornado-prone areas? How about blizzard-prone areas? Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live. Also, as someone who lived in south Florida, flood insurance is a joke and unavailable near the coast anyway. Nobody expects it to pay out enough in a major catastrophe, including hurricanes and flooding.

One theory I've heard is that the prevalence of natural hazards in the US explain the comparatively lower level of development prior to arrival of Europeans - basically any time the locals were getting somewhere some kind of catastrophe would befall them, and destroy their progress. Does make one think about the long term, especially with a more extreme climate expected to be on the way.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#64

Post by thehoff » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #35

Have we seen any sea level rise in the US yet? I think people would buy into it more once we have pictures of roads and buildings being hit by water at high tide.

Miami has been trying to raise their streets due to regular flooding.

https://www.npr.org/2016/05/10/476071206/as-waters-rise-miam...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#65

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

jdpedrie wrote: post #20

chollida1 wrote: post #9

Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? What does it do to the economy when almost everyones largest asset(their house) is wo…

> They would get some government assistence with the condition that this was the first and only time that the governmnet would help. We'll see how well that holds up next time those people need assistance. Somehow I don't see any elected politician telling his voters "sorry, we already helped you".

[deleted]

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#66

Post by chollida1 » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

legulere wrote: post #55

chollida1 wrote: post #9

Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? What does it do to the economy when almost everyones largest asset(their house) is wo…

The banks will just ask for flood insurance.

And when your house floods every other year, that means flood insurance will cost you what it costs to rebuild your house.... each year.

which is to say, you won't be able to get flood insurance.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#67

Post by ctlby » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

Great point, and the dismissive responses to your comment are revealing. So many hyper-rational, super-duper forecasters on HN who think they know better than the people who, you know, have actually succeeded enough in life to be placing these expensive real estate bets.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#68

Post by quantumhobbit » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:21 PM UTC

christophilus wrote: post #34

frockington wrote: post #21

At a rate of 0-3 mm/year or 1 foot/century its going to be hard to convince anyone to care about the sea level. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

That's an interesting map. Any idea why there are down and up arrows intermingled the way they are?

Likely changes to the coast itself. For example Louisiana and the gulf coast are going down faster, because of coastal erosion.

I would guess that the parts of Alaska that are seeing the sea level fall are due to the land rising from tectonic activity.

Things like changes in water temp and currents can also play a role.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#69

Post by maxerickson » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:21 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #5

ben509 wrote: post #2

Part of the problem here is exacerbated by all the flood insurance that effectively subsidizes building in flood plains. In addition to long term measures to mitigate climate change, we should have a tax on areas that are threatened by flooding and water levels rising so that we can reduce the immediate issues by incentivizing people to move away from them.

Should we also tax people living in earthquake-prone and tornado-prone areas? How about blizzard-prone areas? Keep going with this and we will run out of places (in the USA) where it’s ok to live. Also, as someone who lived in south Florida, flood insurance is a joke and unavailable near the coast anyway. Nobody expects it to pay out enough in a major catastrophe, including hurricanes and flooding.

Private insurance works for earthquakes and tornadoes.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#70

Post by Analemma_ » Wed, Aug 29, 2018, 4:21 PM UTC

creaghpatr wrote: post #15

Interestingly, the Miami housing market outlook for 2019 is excellent, in spite of this news. https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-foreca... It would appear that people who actually have skin in the game believe otherwise.

I've mentioned this before: the market believes that, once the problems in Miami become undeniable, there will be some colossally expensive engineering megaproject to fix it on the taxpayer's dime. And depressingly, the market is probably right, because to not do this would mean having to abandon a major city-- something that has basically never happened in the modern word, apart from disasters like Chernobyl-- and admitting that climate change is real. So in a decade or two look forward to what amounts to a huge bailout and upward wealth transfer to Miami real estate barons.